Ocean Breeze Park, FL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocean Breeze Park, FL

May 18, 2024 1:39 PM EDT (17:39 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM
Moonrise 2:54 PM   Moonset 2:35 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 946 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024

Rest of today - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast late this morning and early afternoon, becoming south 10 to 15 knots late. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late.

Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.

Sunday - Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.

Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northwest 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.

Tuesday - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.

Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, then a slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024

Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.

Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Breeze Park, FL
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Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 181440 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1040 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New UPDATE, MARINE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

UPDATE
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Current local radar imagery shows dry conditions across east central Florida. Analysis charts depict a cold front over the Southeastern US and the Florida panhandle and a mid/upper level ridge centered over the Carribean and western Atlantic with 500mb heights at 590dm+ over central Florida. This morning's 10Z XMR sounding shows substantial dry air in the mid to upper levels and a PWAT value of 1.2" which results in high DCAPE at 989 J/kg. Guidance continues to indicate that moisture will increase along sea breeze boundary interactions this afternoon near the coast along I-95 before pushing offshore into the evening hours. Forecast soundings show instability and moisture increasing into the afternoon with SFC CAPE values in the 3,000-5,000 J/kg range and PWAT values around 2-2.3" near the coast, in addition to, 30-40kts 0-6km shear. For this reason, the SPC has outlooked northeastern Lake, Volusia, Seminole, eastern Orange, Brevard, eastern Osceola, eastern Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties.
The main hazards associated with isolated strong to marginally severe storms are wind gusts up to 50mph with locally damaging wind gusts up to 60mph (5% risk), coin-sized hail with a 5% risk of hail up to 1," occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and periods of heavy rainfall. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out (2% risk).

Afternoon highs are forecast to reach above normal to near record values (across the Treasure Coast) with temperatures in the low to upper 90s. Heat index values are expected to reach the 102-110 range with the highest values across Osceola, southern Brevard, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, and Okeechobee counties.
A Heat Advisory is in effect until 8PM this evening over the aforementioned counties.

MARINE
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Currently-Tonight... Mostly favorable boating conditions are forecast. South to southwest winds at 8-14kts will back southeast into the afternoon before veering offshore late this evening and into the overnight hours at 10-16kts. Seas are forecast to build to 1-2ft with up to 3 ft offshore overnight. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon and push offshore into the evening hours which will be capable of wind gusts up to 50-60mph, coin sized hail, and occasional to frequent lightning strikes.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

This Morning...Patchy fog has begun to develop across portions of the Treasure Coast early this morning with surface observations reporting localized visibility as low as a half mile. There continues to remain low confidence in additional fog development across portions of the northwest interior including Lake and western Orange counties. If encountering localized visibility reductions due to fog while driving, slow down, use low-beam headlights, and increase following distance. Any fog which develops is expected to lift shortly after sunrise.

Today...Early morning IR satellite imagery shows a band of ongoing convection stretching across Louisiana into Mississippi ahead of a frontal boundary. 00Z CAM guidance suggests increasing convection as the feature tracks eastward through the morning with a low developing along the boundary as it moves across the Florida panhandle. The band of convection then loses organization on its approach to towards the Florida peninsula. Guidance further suggests a moisture boundary ahead of the main convective boundary with modeled PWATs increasing to around 1.8-1.9" across portions of east central Florida. The moisture boundary is expected to interact with a pinned east coast sea breeze in the afternoon, sparking scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms near the coast.
Elsewhere, scattered showers and storms are still forecast, driven by diurnal heating and outflow boundary collisions. Steep low level lapse rates and CAPE values greater than 2,000 J/kg could support strong updraft growth, particularly in developing convection along the sea breeze. Dry air aloft could be supportive of strong downdrafts with localized wind gust up to 60 mph. Additional hazards include coin-sized hail and cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out along boundary collisions. SPC has included a day one Marginal Risk for all coastal counties and western portions of the interior counties for strong to severe storms which could develop this afternoon.

Before convection begins to bubble up, heat will be of concern.
Anomalous ridging aloft will support above seasonal temperatures into the afternoon, generally ranging within two degrees of records at the local climate sites. Conditions become muggy with increasing moisture, and peak heat index values are forecast to widely range 104-110 degrees. As a result, a Heat Advisory has been issued for southern Brevard, Okeechobee, and the Treasure Coast counties today.
If pursuing outdoor activities, take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and ensure you stay hydrated.

Sunday...The aforementioned frontal boundary sinks southeastward on Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast to approach the I-4 corridor ahead of sunrise.
Coverage then becomes numerous into the afternoon with PoPs increasing between 50-70 percent. Strong to marginally severe storms are in play again on Sunday. Areas across the south will have the most favorable environment for strong to severe storms as the line of convection approaches closer to peak day time heating. Here, modeled CAPE values range 2,000-2,500 J/kg while low level lapse rates remain steep with a minimal inversion in place above 850mb. A dry air layer persists aloft, but to a less extent than what was present the day prior. While the most favorable environment lies southward, SPC has included all of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk of severe storms. Greatest hazards with any developing storms ahead of the front include localized damaging wind gusts, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and coin-sized hail.

Increasing cloud cover will help to regulate afternoon temperatures with a gradient in place from north to south. Earlier cloud cover keeps temperatures along and north of the I-4 corridor in the mid to upper 80s while upper 80s to low 90s build southward.

Monday-Friday...The cold front pushes south of the area into Monday.
Mid level troughing then builds across the western Atlantic stretching across the state of Florida. Troughing is pushed further offshore into mid week as ridging slides eastward across the Gulf, extending into Florida by Wednesday. Showers and storms remain in the forecast Monday (50-60%), and PoPs gradually dwindle each day through mid week. Temperatures generally ranging the mid 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday warm through the remainder of the week. Highs are forecast to range the low to mid 90s by Friday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 749 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR continue at the sites thru 18z-20z, before scattered TSRA begins to develop, especially near coastal terminals. SSW winds will back locally along the coast as the ECSB develops. This is where strong to marginally severe TSRA are expected, generally 19z-02z, before pushing offshore. IFR or brief LIFR conditions are possible with the TSRA activity. Winds may become gusty, 20-25 kt at times, outside of storms. A cold front will approach ECFL on Sun., bringing additional chances for SHRA/TSRA after 12z.

MARINE
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Today-Tonight...West to southwest winds around 5-10 kts back southward as the east coast sea breeze develops in the afternoon.
The sea breeze will remain pinned to the coast with scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms developing along it.
Isolated severe storms with wind gusts up to 34 kts will be possible. Coverage may linger into the late evening. Seas of 2-3 ft persist.

Sunday-Wednesday...Coverage of showers and storms return across the local waters on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A few storms could become strong to marginally severe with localized wind gusts of 34 kts. West to southwest winds around 10 kts on Sunday veer north into Monday as the cold front moves southward across the waters. Light onshore flow then develops from Tuesday onward. Seas of 2-3 ft increase to 4-5 ft across the Gulf Stream Monday night, subsiding Tuesday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 93 72 86 69 / 70 30 60 30 MCO 95 75 86 71 / 40 20 60 30 MLB 93 74 89 70 / 60 40 70 50 VRB 96 73 91 69 / 60 30 70 50 LEE 93 74 85 71 / 30 50 60 20 SFB 96 74 87 70 / 50 30 60 30 ORL 95 75 87 72 / 40 20 60 30 FPR 96 72 91 69 / 60 30 70 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ053-058-154-159- 164-254-259-264-547-647-747.

AM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 21 mi43 min 80°F1 ft
SIPF1 44 mi54 min 8 84°F 89°F29.93
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 45 mi51 min S 13G14 83°F 81°F29.99


Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KSUA WITHAM FIELD,FL 5 sm49 minESE 106 smMostly Cloudy Haze 88°F81°F79%29.97
KFPR TREASURE COAST INTL,FL 19 sm46 minSW 08G1910 smPartly Cloudy93°F70°F47%29.97
Link to 5 minute data for KSUA


Wind History from SUA
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Jensen Beach, Indian River, Florida
   
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Jensen Beach
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Sat -- 02:24 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:02 AM EDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:48 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:39 PM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Jensen Beach, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet
12
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0.6
1
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0.5
2
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0.4
3
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0.5
4
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0.5
5
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0.7
6
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0.8
7
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0.9
8
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1
9
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1
10
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0.9
11
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0.7
12
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0.5
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0.4
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0.3
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0.7
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0.9
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1
9
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1
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1
11
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0.8


Tide / Current for South Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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South Fork
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Sat -- 02:52 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:17 AM EDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:16 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

South Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet
12
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0.6
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0.5
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0.7
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0.8
8
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0.9
9
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0.9
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0.8
11
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0.7
12
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0.6
1
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0.4
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0.8
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0.9
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11
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0.8


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southeast   
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Melbourne, FL,




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