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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 929 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, becoming northwest 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, building to 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet after midnight. Bay and inland waters very rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 feet, occasionally to 11 feet, subsiding to 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters very rough.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 929 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis.. Broad surface high pressure has set up over the southeast u.s. And will dominate the weather for the next few days. Pleasant rain-free conditions expected with east-northeast through east-southeast winds less than 15 knots continuing through Saturday. A cold front will approach the eastern gulf waters by Sunday morning with winds increasing and becoming more south-southwest around 15 to 20 knots ahead of the front. Scattered showers and storms will be possible through the day on Sunday as the front moves through the area. Some of these storms could be strong with damaging winds and waterspouts. Winds shift to the northwest behind this front by Sunday evening and increase to advisory level winds and seas likely. Winds and seas will shift to the northeast and decrease below sca levels Monday afternoon, but will remain elevated around 15-20 knots through the middle of next week.

FXUS62 KTBW 081329 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 829 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Upper trough in W Gulf keeping fast and moist WSW flow aloft while weak high pressure centered along the SC/GA coast slowly slides into the W Atlantic today.

Moderating trend continues today producing pleasant and benign conditions as temps warm to around climate normals with high clouds streaming off the Gulf. Latest grids and forecasts on track.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue with BKN-OVC cirrus shield aloft and FEW- SCT fair wx cu at 040-050k ft this afternoon. Easterly winds this morning to shift SE this afternoon the subside aft 00Z tonight.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 134 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 Surface high pressure will hold over the Florida peninsula today and Saturday with above normal temperatures each day. Boundary layer winds will veer to the southeast which will advect warm moist air over the forecast area with dew points climbing into the 60s over the weekend.

A strong U/L disturbance and associated cold front will push across the southeast U.S. and Florida Sunday and Sunday night. An area of showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and will push across west central and southwest Florida Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. A few storms may be strong to severe. Although there remains uncertainty this far out, the best chance for a strong or severe storm appears to be from the Tampa area and north.

Colder drier air will advect across the forecast area in the wake of the front Sunday night as the frontal boundary stalls south of the Florida peninsula...with the coldest night on Monday night with overnight lows likely dropping into the mid to upper 30s over the nature coast, in the 40s central, and in the upper 40s to around 50 over southwest Florida.

By midweek, isentropic lift over the frontal boundary will cause increasing cloudiness and an area of light rain or showers to develop across south Florida and the southeast Gulf of Mexico...which will may lift slowly north over the central forecast area Thursday night and Friday. Significant model differences in the longer range with NBM much drier and significantly weaker than the very intense GFS solution...and the ECMWF somewhere in between the two. Low confidence in the long range solution as the eventual evolution of this system next week remains in doubt...and current POP forecast is possibly on the low side as it is consistent with the NBM solution.

MARINE
Issued at 134 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 Increasing south to southwest winds and building seas will occur on Sunday ahead of a cold front...with an area of showers and a few thunderstorms moving across the waters during the day and evening hours. In the wake of the front, advisory level winds and seas area expected Sunday night into Monday as winds become north to northwest. Winds and seas will drop below advisory levels late Monday and Monday night, but will remain elevated.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 134 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 No fire weather hazards are expected as minimum afternoon relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the next couple of days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 64 81 67 / 10 0 0 0 FMY 78 64 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 76 62 81 64 / 10 10 10 0 SRQ 77 63 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 77 59 82 62 / 0 10 10 0 SPG 75 65 78 68 / 10 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Sarasota
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Fri -- 02:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:54 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:48 AM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:34 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:00 PM EST     0.86 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:47 PM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sarasota, Sarasota Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
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Fri -- 02:00 AM EST     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:34 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:54 AM EST     1.08 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:30 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:23 PM EST     -0.38 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:34 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:18 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:53 PM EST     1.07 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:52 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current, knots

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