Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Sarasota, FL

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of scattered shower or storm activity. For this morning, some light showers will move from the Gulf to the east, with little impact expected, then some storms are expected to form early to mid afternoon before activity shifts eastward for the rest of the day.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1219 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026 Weak high pressure will hold over the region over the weekend and through early next week. Plume of deep tropical moisture as seen on W/V imagery will continue to extend from the western Caribbean
across the eastern Gulf
and over the Florida peninsula. Main driver of daily convection will be dictated by the boundary layer wind flow
Currently from the northwest
the flow will back to the west and southwest today. This typically promotes late night showers/isolated thunderstorms developing over the coastal waters which advect locally onshore during the early morning hours. Additional scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms develop during the morning/early afternoon hours over the coastal counties and spread inland through the remainder of the afternoon/evening increasing in areal coverage/higher pops interior. This pattern will hold through Tuesday.

Wednesday will be a transition day as a weak frontal boundary sinks south down the peninsula. Surface high pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front late in the week with drier air surface and aloft advecting over the forecast area, with dew points potentially dropping into the lower/mid 60s. NBM POPs/DPs appear to high during this period.
High temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s each day. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s into early next week...but again the NBM appears to warm with overnight mins late in the week because of the drier air expected to advect over the region, with lows potentially in the 60s across the area...except lower 70s along the coast.

MARINE
Issued at 1219 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026 Weak high pressure will hold over the waters for the next several days. Winds will back to the west/southwest today, which will also persist for the next several days. Winds/seas are expected to remain below cautionary levels through the period. Main hazard will be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms which will be capable of producing locally gusty winds and rough seas. Best time for a shower/storm will be during the overnight and morning hours each day.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1219 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days to keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values to remain above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 79 89 79 / 20 20 40 20 FMY 90 79 92 78 / 10 10 20 10 GIF 89 76 90 76 / 30 20 60 20 SRQ 90 79 90 79 / 10 10 40 10 BKV 89 75 89 76 / 30 30 40 30 SPG 90 80 90 80 / 10 20 40 10

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.