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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 229 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 229 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis..The large high pressure ridge along the atlantic seaboard pushes further offshore, followed by a low pressure system developing over the central u.s. Friday. As the low tracks northeast through the weekend, the associated cold front approaches florida late Sunday, passing through the local atlantic waters Monday, with high pressure building in behind across the southeast.
Gulf stream hazards..None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, november 30th.
42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 25 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 302046 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 346 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 355 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Now-Friday...A mix of sun and clouds is accompanied by temperatures in the 70s this afternoon. High clouds continue to stream eastward from the Gulf of Mexico while low to mid level cumulus dots the skies, especially south of Melbourne. GOES- derived PW values under 1.00" indicate all of east central Florida remains quite dry, though that will be changing over the next 24-36 hours. Surface flow has veered onshore with an ESE wind observed across much of the area.

High clouds are forecast to overspread the area tonight as temperatures fall into the upper 50s (north of Interstate 4) and into the 60s farther south. Treasure Coast locations will likely stay closer to the upper 60s and low 70s into early Friday. A sector of CAM guidance earlier was indicating a low chance for an isolated shower overnight near and north of the Orlando metro.
Upon closer review of the forecast soundings, a solid region of dry air from just above the surface all the way to 600mb will likely keep any precipitation from reaching the surface.
Therefore, kept PoP just below mentionable thresholds for the overnight period.

500mb ridging really starts to build northward on Friday as surface high pressure translates seaward, off of the Atlantic coast. A warm front surges northward, stretching from central Mississippi to the coastal Carolinas Friday afternoon. Trailing behind, an active cold front with shower and storm activity is expected to approach the Deep South. Locally, mid level ridging helps to keep rain chances well north or offshore over the Atlantic on Friday. Another day with a mix of clouds and sunshine is expected, along with another noticeable climb in temperatures.
Forecast highs range from the low 80s (north) to the mid 80s (south).

Friday Night-Sunday...The pattern aloft amplifies a bit through Saturday night as the mid-level ridge to the south shifts into the western Caribbean and a trough swings through the central US. The trough then begins to flatten out the ridge to the south as it pasts east of the Mississippi late Sunday. A cluster of surface low pressure systems developing from the central U.S. to south of the Great Lakes, associated with the mid-level trough, track to the northeast through the weekend, while high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard pushes further offshore. Southeasterly winds slowly veer through the period, becoming westerly late Sunday night, advecting higher moisture across Florida. The strung out cold front draped across the panhandle into the Gulf starts to approach Florida late Sunday.

Modest rain chances (20 pct) return to the forecast Saturday, then higher chances (20-40 pct) Sunday ahead of the front. A few lightning storms will be possible, especially Sunday. Getting warm again this weekend in the southerly flow, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Monday-Thursday...A fairly quiet first half of the week as high pressure across the southeastern US fills in behind the front, but some uncertainty how far south the high will make it, and where the frontal boundary will settle. 12Z ECM pushes the front south of Florida, while the 12Z GFS stalls it across south FL which result in higher than currently advertised rain chances (went with a consensus blend which is less than 10 pct at this time) through mid-week, especially across the south. For the second half of the week, a lot more uncertainty. 12Z guidance came in much more aggressive than previous runs, developing a sharp mid-upper level trough over the eastern US and a large attendant surface low.
Model trends have been consistently upward, but once again the GFS solution has been faster and more aggressive while the ECM is a little slower and weaker. Continued with consensus blend of guidance for the forecast at this juncture, which calls for highs sinking from the M70-L80s Monday to the U60-L70s mid-week, with lows holding steady in 50s, and northwesterly winds 10-15 mph.
Further cooling and increasing winds are forecast Wednesday into Thursday as the cold front associated with the low swings through, but very low confidence in magnitude given how far out we're looking, and could realize temperatures lower and winds higher than currently forecast.

MARINE
Issued at 355 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Tonight-Friday...High pressure over the local waters will begin to slide eastward into Friday. Overnight, a low chance for rain showers exists, mainly over the offshore waters. Southeast winds increase slightly to around 15 kt offshore, closer to 10 kt nearshore. Seas build to 4-5 ft offshore, 3-4 ft nearshore into Friday.

Friday Night-Monday...High pressure over the western Atlantic extending over the local Atlantic waters retreats Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, which will drop through the waters late Sunday through Monday. Generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend, though the 3-4 ft seas could be a bit choppy at times. Southeasterly winds 10-15 kts Saturday morning veer to south by Sunday morning, then to the southwest while increasing 10-15 kts Sunday night ahead of the front, then further veer to the northwest around 15 kts behind the front Monday evening. Seas increase a bit to 4-5 ft offshore late Monday. Isolated to scattered showers, and isolated lightning storms.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 355 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR continue with low-mid level cloud cover moving over many of the ECFL terminals. BKN high clouds persist thru at least 06-09z Fri. before giving way to additional low-mid level cu Fri.
afternoon. East-southeast winds persist at or below 10 kt, except where a couple kt higher at coastal terminals during the day.



HYDROLOGY
Issued at 1039 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain within Minor Flood stage through early next week, while very slowly declining.
The river Above Lake Harney is forecast to very slowly fall out of Action Stage this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 61 81 66 82 / 10 0 10 20 MCO 61 83 68 84 / 10 0 10 20 MLB 65 82 70 83 / 10 0 10 10 VRB 65 83 69 85 / 10 0 10 10 LEE 59 82 67 82 / 10 0 10 20 SFB 61 83 67 83 / 10 0 10 20 ORL 61 83 68 84 / 10 0 10 20 FPR 65 83 69 85 / 10 0 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Fort Pierce (inside)
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Thu -- 04:00 AM EST     -0.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:03 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:46 AM EST     0.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:02 PM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:31 PM EST     0.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fort Pierce (inside), Indian River, Florida, Tide feet

Ankona
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Thu -- 12:03 AM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:02 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:47 PM EST     1.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:23 PM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ankona, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet

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