Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cortez, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 7:00PM Friday October 18, 2019 7:44 PM EDT (23:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:35PMMoonset 10:45AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 400 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Saturday night...
Tonight..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 6 to 10 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 6 to 10 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 20 knots then becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Sunday..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds around 5 knots then becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..South winds around 10 knots then becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming northeast around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 400 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Synopsis.. Wind and seas will continue to increase tonight as tropical storm nestor moves northeast toward the florida panhandle. Hazardous boating conditions will persist through Saturday night, followed by improving conditions during Sunday. Seas will be slow to subside on Sunday as residual swells from nestor continue to move toward the coast. A cold front will move into the waters on Tuesday and be south of our waters by Wednesday morning. Northeast winds could reach 20 knots behind the front Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cortez, FL
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location: 27.48, -82.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 181849
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
249 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Discussion
Tropical storm nestor will be the main player for the next 48 hours.

Nestor is over the central gulf of mexico moving quickly northeast
toward the florida panhandle. It will likely make landfall early on
Saturday, then continue moving away through the rest of the weekend.

Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage and
intensity today. So far they have remained mostly beyond 60 miles
from the coast, but as nestor moves northeast, the convergence
boundary associated with a weak frontal boundary will lift
northeast, allowing these storms to move toward the coast. The main
impact will be overnight tonight into Saturday morning. The main
threat will be the potential for damaging wind gusts and isolated
tornadoes.

Coastal flooding storm surge will be an issue tonight through
Saturday as winds turn more southerly, then southwesterly as nestor
moves by. Expecting 1 to 3 feet in tampa bay, 2 to 4 feet from
clearwater beach to chassahowitzka, and 3 to 5 feet north of
chassahowitzka.

Large waves and gusty winds will also result in high surf and
dangerous rip currents through at least Saturday, and possibly into
Sunday as well. Even after the winds diminish, wave energy will
continue to propagate toward the coast on Sunday.

Flooding from rainfall is not expected to be a big issue due to the
fast movement of the storm. That said, if rainbands set up over one
particular area for any length of time, nuisance type flooding could
certainly occur.

Sustained wind impacts from nestor should be confined to levy
county, and mainly near the coast. As mentioned above, stronger
storms could bring damaging wind gusts to just about anywhere in our
area.

We return to some semblance of normalcy on Monday. A warm front will
lift north on Monday bringing some rain chances to the region, but
most of this will remain over the gulf waters. A cold front will
move southward through florida Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler and
drier weather moving in behind it. This will not be a strong cold
front given the time of year, and while it will feel better for a
day or two, temperatures will only drop off to about where they
should be this time of year.

Warmer and more humid air will make its way back into the region by
Friday.

Aviation
Expect gradually deteriorating conditions this afternoon with MVFR
and potentially ifr ceilings by tonight. Winds will gradually shift
to southeast then south and increase to 15 knots or so with higher
gusts overnight into Saturday.

Marine
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move into the waters today
as tropical storm nestor moves northeast toward the florida
panhandle. Hazardous boating conditions will persist through
Saturday night, followed by improving conditions during Sunday. Seas
will be slow to subside on Sunday as residual swells from nestor
continue to move toward the coast.

A cold front will move into the waters on Tuesday and be south of
our waters by Wednesday morning. Northeast winds could reach 20
knots behind the front Wednesday.

Fire weather
No significant fire weather issues next several days. Dry air behind
the cold front on Wednesday is not expected to result in relative
humidities below 35 percent.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 74 84 74 85 80 80 30 30
fmy 76 85 76 88 50 70 30 30
gif 73 84 73 87 80 80 30 30
srq 75 86 75 87 80 80 40 40
bkv 70 85 71 86 80 80 30 20
spg 76 85 77 86 80 80 30 30

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for coastal
charlotte-coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal manatee-
coastal sarasota-pinellas.

High surf advisory from 1 am Saturday to 8 am edt Sunday for
coastal charlotte-coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal
manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Coastal flood advisory until 8 am edt Sunday for coastal
hillsborough-coastal manatee.

Tropical storm warning for coastal levy.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Sunday for charlotte harbor
and pine island sound-coastal waters from bonita beach to
englewood fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from englewood to
tarpon springs fl out 20 nm-tampa bay waters-waters from
bonita beach to englewood fl out 20 to 60 nm-waters from
englewood to tarpon springs fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Tropical storm warning for coastal waters from tarpon springs to
suwannee river fl out 20 nm-waters from tarpon springs to
suwannee river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... Jillson
mid term long term decision support... 05 carlisle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMAF1 13 mi57 min 75°F 82°F1010.7 hPa
MTBF1 14 mi57 min SE 8 G 8.9 77°F 1010.9 hPa72°F
42098 15 mi45 min 82°F3 ft
CLBF1 18 mi111 min ENE 2.9 G 6 75°F 1010.1 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 20 mi57 min E 5.1 G 8.9 77°F 82°F1011.2 hPa
GCTF1 22 mi57 min 77°F 1010.9 hPa71°F
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 25 mi75 min SE 18 G 21 83°F1009.2 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 27 mi57 min E 5.1 G 8 74°F 81°F1010.9 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 31 mi45 min SE 7 G 8.9 81°F 82°F1011 hPa (+0.5)76°F
MCYF1 33 mi57 min 84°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 34 mi57 min N 4.1 G 6
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 34 mi57 min NE 4.1 G 7
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 35 mi63 min ENE 8 G 9.9 82°F1011.1 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 47 mi111 min ENE 8 G 11 73°F 1011.7 hPa

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL9 mi52 minE 710.00 miLight Rain79°F73°F85%1009.9 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL20 mi52 minE 1110.00 miLight Rain78°F73°F85%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSRQ

Wind History from SRQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmCalmN4NE4CalmCalmNE5E5E6E6E6E5E6E6E8E8E7E6E10E7E7E7E7
1 day agoW9W10W10W10NW12N8NW4N4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmNE7E644W7W7W7W8NW4N3
2 days agoW3SW3SE3SE5E3CalmS4SE3SE5SE5SE3SW7SW8SW10SW12SW9SW13SW13SW14W10W11W10W11W8

Tide / Current Tables for Cortez, Sarasota Bay, Florida
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Cortez
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:02 AM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:34 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:02 PM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:12 PM EDT     1.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.32.42.32.11.81.410.60.30.10.10.30.711.31.61.61.61.51.51.41.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:56 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:16 AM EDT     -1.91 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:58 PM EDT     1.35 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:20 PM EDT     -0.14 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.910.90.4-0.3-1-1.6-1.9-1.8-1.4-0.9-0.20.40.91.21.41.20.90.40.1-0.1-0.10.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.