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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 927 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest late. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers early. Patchy fog early.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 927 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis.. Lingering sea fog is lifting as a surface front moves through, with winds transitioning today from a light wsw flow to a nnw one around 15 knots or less. A secondary cold front push late Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring wind speeds up to around small craft exercise caution or perhaps small craft advisory levels. Winds will turn to northeasterly and subside Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds in north of the waters.

FXUS62 KTBW 041425 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 925 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

New UPDATE, MARINE

UPDATE
Issued at 923 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Fog has been the main concern for the morning. Across coastal sections of West Central and SWFL, visibilities have been pretty low this morning. Across SWFL, visibilities have been low and stayed low for a significant amount of time. Closer to the Tampa Bay area and points north, visibilities have been much more variable as impulses of energy have lifted the fog at times, but then the favorable low-level conditions allow it settle right back down once the instability passes. That being said, daytime heating should help to mix these ceilings up over the next hour.
Indeed, visibilities are already improving across much of the area. The Dense Fog Advisory is set to expire at 10AM; that seems to be good at this time.

The surface front is now approaching central Florida. There is a sharp boundary particularly notable across the Eastern Gulf waters off the Pinellas County coast oriented in a diagonal SW to NE fashion that should in fact mark the new airmass. Once this passes in the next couple hours, cooler and drier air should begin to filter in. Maybe not immediately, though, as N FL obs are still showing the cloudy and relatively warm and humid conditions. There is still considerable cloudiness extending all the way back into southern Georgia and Alabama behind this front, suggesting it has a shallow vertical slope. The really noticeable change is with the stronger front still situated back to the North and West; it'll take a little longer for that one to arrive.

Overall, the forecast looks to be on track this morning, so if you don't like this warm, humid December morning, change is coming.

DISCUSSION
Early morning IR and water vapor satellite imagery is showing a band of cirrus clouds streaming across northern Florida associated with a slow moving cold front. As this front gradually works south, moisture pooling to the south of the boundary has allowed both sea fog and land based fog to develop across much of the area this morning. This fog is forecast to lift out by mid morning. Moisture over running the front is also causing stratus over the northern half of the forecast area, which is forecast to linger through the morning before clearing out by early afternoon. Otherwise, some isolated showers will be possible along the frontal boundary today, but heavy rain is not anticipated.

Cooler air will fill in behind the front, with lows ranging from around 50 north to the low 60s south tonight and mid 40s to around 60 Wednesday morning. As a deep upper level trough digs into the southeastern US during the middle of the week, a secondary cold front push will enhance the cold air advection, leading to increasingly cool temperatures Wednesday and Wednesday night under breezy northwest winds. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to only top out in the low 60s north to around 70 south, with Thursday morning lows in the mid to upper 30s over the Nature Coast, and 40s to low 50s from around the Tampa Bay south. Winds will turn to northeasterly on Thursday and start to subside, allowing for temperatures to moderate Thursday through Saturday under mostly sunny skies.

By Sunday, another strong upper level trough is forecast to be swinging through the eastern US, dragging a strong cold front into Florida. While it's too early to nail down the exact timing of the front, global models are in good agreement with showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the frontal passage on Sunday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

A warm, humid SSW flow favors the continuation of IFR/LIFR impacts this morning at area terminals through 14-16Z from a combination of land fog, sea fog, and low clouds. By late morning, daytime heating should lift CIGs to MVFR, but not unlike yesterday, CIGs are unlikely to completely lift to VFR until the afternoon. Later today, a cold front is expected to sweep through, with a shift to a northerly wind flow and improving conditions that last through the work week.

MARINE
Issued at 923 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Lingering sea fog is lifting as a surface front moves through, with winds transitioning today from a light WSW flow to a NNW one around 15 knots or less. A secondary cold front push late Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring wind speeds up to around Small Craft Exercise Caution or perhaps Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds will turn to northeasterly and subside Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds in north of the waters.

FIRE WEATHER
No humidity concerns. Areas of dense fog will be possible through mid morning today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 60 73 57 / 20 0 0 0 FMY 82 61 78 56 / 20 0 0 0 GIF 81 57 73 51 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 80 60 74 58 / 20 0 0 0 BKV 78 52 71 48 / 20 0 0 0 SPG 76 62 70 59 / 20 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee- Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters.

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Bradenton, Manatee River, Florida, Tide feet

Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge)
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Mon -- 03:30 AM EST     0.62 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:17 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:11 AM EST     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:43 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:58 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:30 PM EST     1.10 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:44 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:43 PM EST     -0.26 knots Max Ebb
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Tampa Bay (Sunshine Skyway Bridge), Florida Current, knots

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