Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 1:22 PM   Moonset 1:51 AM

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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 216 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - West winds around 5 knots, becoming south around 5 knots late. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 7 seconds and south 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Monday - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Monday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 216 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis - West to northwest winds today shift back to the southwest Friday as a frontal boundary lifts northward across the area. Another storm system will bring increasing rain chances for the waters over the weekend. No headlines are expected, though winds and seas will be higher in showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS62 KTBW 161816 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 216 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

DISCUSSION
Flow aloft over the region this afternoon has become nearly zonal, with the surface frontal boundary sitting across the Florida peninsula. South of this boundary and mainly over Lee county, some showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible while relatively drier air has taken hold to the north. This boundary will start to lift back northward tonight as another storm system begins to develop to our west. Low-level flow turns back to southwest through Friday, with increasing moisture once again. The main question for tomorrow's forecast will be rain chances. It would make sense that moisture pooling along the boundary would lead to some rain chances and a few other higher- res models are indicating a weakening MCS moving across the northern Gulf coast region, all of which would likely lead to some shower activity and maybe a few storms. Whatever does develop would then generally push inland with the southwest winds in place.

For Saturday, southwest flow continues across the local area, with warm and humid conditions persisting. Some showers and storms can be expected in the afternoon, but these will again favor interior locations. The frontal boundary associated with the next storm system will move into north Florida Saturday night into Sunday, with increasing shower and storm chances for the northern half of the forecast area. The boundary very slowly shifts southward through Sunday and Sunday night with rain chances moving with it.

A surface low tries to develop off the northeast Florida coast early next week, which will help keep rain chances in the forecast through Monday. Some drier air then moves in for Tuesday and more so for Wednesday, with rain chances confined more to southwest Florida.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
A frontal boundary draped across the region this afternoon will gradually lift northward tonight through Friday, with some sprinkles or light showers possible. At this time, impacts to TAF sites are not expected to be significant, so have left out of the forecast.
Also seeing some indications of possible patchy fog or low clouds near southwest Florida sites, but confidence is on the low side.
Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions can be expected.

MARINE
West to northwest winds today shift back to the southwest Friday as a frontal boundary lifts northward across the area. Another storm system will bring increasing rain chances for the waters over the weekend. No headlines are expected, though winds and seas will be higher in showers and thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER
No Red Flag concerns for the next several days as relative humidity values will remain above normal. A frontal boundary over the region will move north through Friday and then another storm system will bring increasing rain chances for the area through this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 76 91 79 92 / 10 10 0 20 FMY 77 93 78 95 / 10 10 0 20 GIF 71 95 75 96 / 0 20 0 30 SRQ 76 91 77 93 / 10 10 0 20 BKV 66 93 71 94 / 0 20 0 30 SPG 79 89 81 90 / 10 10 0 20

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

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Mullet Key Channel (Skyway), Florida, Tide feet

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
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Thu -- 12:54 AM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:18 AM EDT     1.15 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:29 PM EDT     -0.33 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:39 PM EDT     0.41 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current, knots

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