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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 403 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Today..Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters rough.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 403 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis.. High pressure over the western atlantic will keep southeast winds across the waters today into tonight. A strong cold front will move through the area late Sunday and Sunday night with southerly winds and seas increasing ahead of a line of showers and Thunderstorms. Strong high pressure will quickly build into the region with robust northwest to north winds and hazardous elevated seas Sunday night through Monday. Small craft should remain in port until conditions improve Tuesday.

FXUS62 KTBW 091351 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 851 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 837 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Southeasterly low level flow with high pressure in the western Atlantic and deep southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough will promote above average temperatures across the area today with highs generally in the low 80s, though coastal sites will be a touch cooler in the upper 70s. While today should be a mostly dry day, some recent hi-res guidance does suggest that a few sprinkles could possibly develop during peak heating later today as the sea breeze pushes inland. However, decided to leave PoPs out of the forecast as the likelihood of anything measurable is low at this time but an isolated sprinkle or two can't be ruled out later today.

DISCUSSION
Early morning IR satellite and radar imagery are showing upper level clouds and showers over Florida associated with a weak shortwave trough passing through the southeastern US while a deep longwave trough builds into the Central Plains and Mississippi River Valley.
This longwave trough will continue to dig into the southeastern CONUS through the rest of the weekend, dragging a cold front into the Florida Peninsula late Sunday and into Sunday night. Ahead of this front, southeasterly flow will allow for temperatures and dew points to build today and into early Sunday, with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. With the building surface moisture, some patchy fog will be possible Sunday morning, although wind speeds will be too high for widespread fog. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are then forecast to develop along and ahead of the front Sunday afternoon and evening. With moderate low level shear and lapse rates, a few strong or damaging storms cannot be completely ruled out, with the highest chances over the Nature Coast where dynamics are more favorable.

Behind the front, cooler and drier air will fill in Monday and Tuesday, with morning lows dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s over the Nature Coast and mid 40s to low 50s to the south.
Temperatures will moderate again Tuesday through the rest of the week as High pressure builds in to the north of Florida. During the second half of the week, the frontal boundary will back up into southern Florida as a warm front, allowing for slight chances of showers each day, mainly south of Interstate 4.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period with high pressure in control. Winds are mainly SE this morning and will gradually shift onshore later in the day at coastal terminals with wind speeds around 5-7 kts.

MARINE
Southerly and southeasterly winds will continue today and tonight as high pressure holds east of Florida, with wind speeds remaining around 15 knots of less. An approaching cold front will bring thunderstorms into the waters Sunday and Sunday night, with winds increasing ahead of the front Sunday, then turning to northwesterly behind the front late Sunday and Sunday night. Winds and seas will build to Small Craft Advisory levels late Sunday before subsiding slightly on Monday, although winds will continue approach Advisory levels at times through the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER
No humidity concerns. A few patches of fog will be possible each of the next couple of mornings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 67 79 53 / 0 0 60 60 FMY 83 65 82 60 / 0 0 20 40 GIF 81 64 82 51 / 10 0 40 60 SRQ 82 64 79 52 / 0 0 50 50 BKV 83 62 81 46 / 10 10 60 60 SPG 78 67 76 54 / 0 0 60 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Johns Pass
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Sat -- 03:43 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:36 AM EST     1.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:40 PM EST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:06 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:23 PM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Johns Pass, Florida, Tide feet

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
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Sat -- 02:19 AM EST     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:27 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:49 AM EST     1.37 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:34 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:01 PM EST     -0.26 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:07 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:36 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:29 PM EST     1.05 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:06 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current, knots

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