Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 1:22 PM   Moonset 1:51 AM

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GMZ232 Expires:202405170315;;313661 Fzus54 Kcrp 161500 Cwfcrp
coastal waters forecast for texas national weather service corpus christi tx 1000 am cdt Thu may 16 2024
middle texas coastal waters from baffin bay to matagorda ship channel out to 60 nautical miles. Seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz231-232-170315- baffin bay and upper laguna madre-corpus christi and nueces bays- 1000 am cdt Thu may 16 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Sunday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 1000 Am Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
moderate onshore flow will be present today. Winds will decrease to under 15 knots tonight. There is a low to medium chance for showers and Thunderstorms across the local waters today with the best chances north of port aransas. If a storm does develop, there is a low chance they could become strong to severe. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms are expected to continue Friday. Dissipating convection expected Friday night, followed by drier conditions Saturday and Sunday, as an upper level disturbance moves east. A warming trend is expected Monday through Wednesday, with weak to moderate onshore flow.

FXUS64 KCRP 161752 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1252 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms today.
- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms tomorrow.

During this period, our primary concern revolves around the potential for isolated severe storms. Though some scattered shower and thunderstorm potential is possible this morning, our time of concern is particularly during the afternoon and evening hours today and continuing into Friday. The current atmospheric setup presents favorable conditions for the development of convective activity, driven by southeasterly flow ahead of an advancing surface low and accompanying dryline across Central Texas. This influx of moisture has elevated PWATs to approximately 2.0 inches within the warm sector.

Aloft, the progression of a mid-level trough accompanied by multiple embedded shortwaves, is expected to traverse eastward.
This system will provide the necessary lift to initiate shower and thunderstorm development. Models indicate the potential for a few of these storms to be strong or severe. SBCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg, coupled with bulk shear values ranging between 40-50 kts, heighten the potential for severe weather. With this in mind, SPC has increased the risk for severe thunderstorms to a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for today, primarily focusing on areas northeast of I-37. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats. Concurrently, WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall in the Victoria Crossroads region, highlighting the potential for localized flash flooding.

A gradual decrease in convective activity is expected by late evening as diurnal heating wanes. However, a low chance (20-30%)
of rain persists into Friday as the surface low and dryline continue their eastward trajectory. This low will allow for enhanced low-level convergence along the dryline. In addition, SBCAPE values will hover around 4000 J/kg, bulk shear will increase to 70-80 kts, and PWATs will range from 1.5 - 2.0 inches.
These atmospheric parameters suggest a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms, particularly in our eastern areas, a few of which could again be strong to severe. SPC has extended the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms to include the entirety of the Coastal Plains.

As for temperatures, they will be warm. Highs will top out in mid 80s to low 90s in eastern portions of our area with mid 90s to low 100s out west. With dew points in the upper 70s to lower 80s this will lead to elevated heat indices tomorrow the area. Most should stay below Heat Advisory criteria (less than 110 degrees), but isolated portions of the Southern Coastal Plains could briefly get above that.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Key Messages:

- A risk of heat related impacts Monday through Wednesday across the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains.

Concur with the deterministic GFS/ECMWF that subsidence/drying (with PWAT values over the CWA falling to below normal) will occur Saturday/Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves east of the region. A warmer airmass is predicted Monday through Wednesday, manifested by an upper ridge that builds over the region, per the GFS/ECMWF. A progressive pattern is expected to remain over the northern 2/3 of the CONUS, contributing to return flow/increasing moisture over the region beginning Saturday night/early Sunday. The GFS/ECMWF predict PWAT values to increase to near/slightly above normal over the CWA Monday through Wednesday. The combination of heating/increasing moisture will increase maximum Heat Index values over the region. WPC predicts a 40-70 percent chance that the maximum Heat Index threshold of 110F will be met over the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains Monday through Wednesday. The NBM predicts 8s maximum swell period over the coastal waters Saturday/Sunday, which may increase the risk of rip currents along the Gulf-facing beaches of the Middle Texas coast to the Moderate category.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Isolated to scattered showers currently moving north across S TX, will continue this trend through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly across the VCT area. The activity is expected to wane late this afternoon into this evening, then redevelop after 10Z Friday and continue through 18Z Fri as another disturbance tracks across the region. Mainly eastern areas are expected to have convection with the VCT area the most likely to have TSRAs. There has been a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions this morning, but VFR conditions are expected to become prevailing through the afternoon. MVFR conditions will become prevailing by 03-06Z this evening for ALI, CRP and VCT, then around 07Z for COT. LRD may remain at VFR levels overnight with a brief period of MVFR by mid morning Friday.

MARINE
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Moderate onshore flow will be present today. Winds will decrease to under 15 knots tonight. There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms across the local waters today with the best chances across the northern bays and offshore waters. If a storm does develop, there is a low chance they could become strong to severe. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue Friday. Dissipating convection expected Friday night, followed by subsidence/drying Saturday/Sunday, as an upper level disturbance moves east. A warming trend is expected Monday through Wednesday, with weak to moderate onshore flow. Maximum Heat Index values near 90 to the lower 90s are anticipated for Tuesday/Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 89 77 91 77 / 30 0 30 10 Victoria 86 73 87 72 / 40 20 30 10 Laredo 101 74 96 77 / 0 10 20 0 Alice 93 74 93 74 / 30 10 30 10 Rockport 86 77 87 76 / 30 10 30 10 Cotulla 96 73 95 74 / 20 10 20 0 Kingsville 91 76 92 76 / 20 0 30 10 Navy Corpus 87 79 88 80 / 30 10 30 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Corpus Christi
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Thu -- 02:51 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:39 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:33 AM CDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:21 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:16 PM CDT     0.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:38 PM CDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Corpus Christi, Texas (2) (expired 1999-07-23), Tide feet

Aransas Pass
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Thu -- 01:44 AM CDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:49 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:44 AM CDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:20 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:14 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:35 PM CDT     -0.28 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:56 PM CDT     -0.15 knots Min Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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Corpus Christi, TX,