Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sebastian, FL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Rest of Today-Saturday...Less coverage of showers and storms along the sea breeze today than previous days around this time. This makes sense, given that the XMR 15Z sounding found drier air through the column and a PWAT of only 1.64". Warm 500mb temperatures of around -6 C are also not supportive of greater coverage. Regardless, CAMs continue to show scattered showers and storms developing along the breeze as it moves further inland, with a collision occurring near to west of Leesburg into this evening. Strong storms will likely be limited given the conditions, though drier air could cause a few strong wind gusts to around 50 mph, should a storm be able to take advantage of it.
Drier conditions are forecast to develop by around 10 PM. However, a few showers or storms will be possible along the Treasure Coast towards morning, occasionally moving onshore embedded within south-southeasterly flow. Overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s.

Ridging continues through the column Saturday, as the Atlantic ridge axis slowly drifts southward towards the local area. Another day of onshore flow, with south-southeast flow increasing to 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze. A similar pattern to the last several days is forecast, with a few showers early in the morning along the Treasure Coast. Then, coverage expands inland along the sea breeze, with a collision over the interior keeping convection ongoing into the early evening. While the mid- level ridge will repel most of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), dry air looks to linger in the mid- levels, leading to the continued threat for a few strong wind gusts. PoPs 30-40% along the coast and 40-50% over the interior will likely struggle to overcome warm 500mb temperatures near -6C. Hot June temperatures in the lower to mid-90s continue, with heat indices in the lower 100s.

Sunday-Friday (previous)...Surface ridge axis will linger across central Florida late weekend into next week, with ridge aloft remaining extended across Florida. Coverage of showers and storms will remain near to below normal due to the presence of this mid level ridge, warming temps aloft and potential for drier air building into the region next week. However, scattered showers and storms are still generally forecast, with greatest chance for showers and storms continuing to be focused inland, west of I-95, where sea breeze/outflow boundary interactions are more likely.
Lingering dry air aloft may still allow for a few strong storms each day, with main threats continuing to be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

Hot conditions will intensify into next week, with highs still in the upper 80s/low 90s on Sunday, increasing to the low to mid 90s Mon-Thu. Some drier air building into the area should offset the increase in temps, keeping peak heat indices around 100-105F.

MARINE
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The Atlantic ridge axis will settle near to just north of the local waters this weekend and remain there through much of next week. On the southern half of the ridge, south to southeast flow will continue to prevail. Wind speeds remaining around 10-15 kts, increasing late morning and into the afternoon along the coast as the sea breeze develops. Onshore flow will limit offshore-moving showers. However, isolated to scattered showers may develop over the local Atlantic waters overnight and in the morning hours. Main storm threats will be cloud to water lightning strikes and gusty winds. Seas 2-3 ft.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Lower than normal storm coverage continues over the next 24-30 HR.
Few showers linger around the Greater Orlando terminals through 3-4Z then quiet overnight. VCTS again for MCO tomorrow afternoon, with confidence too low for a TEMPO at this point. SE winds 5-15 KT, few gusts 20-25 KT at the coastal sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 90 74 90 / 20 40 20 50 MCO 75 93 75 92 / 30 40 30 50 MLB 76 89 76 89 / 10 30 20 30 VRB 75 90 75 90 / 10 30 20 20 LEE 76 92 75 92 / 40 50 40 50 SFB 75 93 75 92 / 30 40 30 50 ORL 76 93 76 92 / 30 40 30 50 FPR 74 89 74 89 / 10 30 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.