Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sebastian, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:21PM Monday July 13, 2020 5:52 PM EDT (21:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:21AMMoonset 1:08PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 321 Pm Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday..West winds 5 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 321 Pm Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Synopsis..Drier air will limit rain chances today, then rain chances will increase by mid week with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening lightning storms expected. Generally favorable conditions over the open waters with seas around 2 feet near the coast and up to 3-4 feet well offshore, with winds and seas locally higher near offshore moving storms.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, july 10th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 27 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 21 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebastian, FL
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location: 27.81, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 131926 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 326 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

DISCUSSION.

Rest of Today-Tonight . Pocket of dry mid-level air has slowly moved south across the area today. This initially limited shower and storm development across the northern areas this morning, and is now limiting convection across the Treasure Coast. In its wake, a pocket of greater moisture is moving into the western peninsula helping to fire off showers and isolated lightning storms. Some of these will make their way into Lake County/Orlando Metro over the next couple of hours. Not expecting much in the way of strong storms as ongoing convection continues to struggle.

Stout westerly flow has kept the sea breeze from developing at all today aside from the very tip of the Cape. There is the potential for a very late afternoon/evening sea breeze collision along the Brevard County coast. Rain chances are around 20 percent everywhere into this evening. Any storms that develop along the coast will quickly push offshore, and most of the convection should dissipate by late evening. Overnight temperatures settle in the mid 70s.

Tuesday-Wednesday . Upper trough and associated surface boundary will begin to lift back northward on Tuesday, while an elongated stream of mid-level vorticity south over our area. A few showers possible west of I-4 before sunset into the early morning. Rain chances increase to 40-50 percent areawide in the afternoon as a more favorable setup leads to scattered lightning storms.

Wednesday, higher coverage expands areawide as sfc high builds in over the peninsula/GOMEX, leading to variable winds and little inhibition to the development of the sea breeze. Thus, a collision will be likely across the interior with PoPs of 40-50 percent west of I-95. Expect boundary driven diurnal convection both days, with the potential for a few strong storms in the mid to late afternoon.

Highs will continue to run above average for just a few more days, topping out in the mid 90s with heat index readings approaching 105 degrees, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Thursday-Sunday . (Previous Discussion) By mid to late week, the grip of the upper trough across the eastern CONUS finally retreats as an upper ridge builds through the Midwest to Deep South. As a result, the axis of the Atlantic high will finally lift back northward positioning just north of central FL, leading to a surface flow shift from westerly to easterly by early Thursday. Onshore flow will favor the east coast sea breeze development in the late morning to early afternoon, yielding diurnal convection across the interior and towards the west FL coast. While this regime does favor activity away from the coast, higher moisture (PW above 2.00") will keep rain chances at 60-70 percent areawide through the weekend. Guidance still running much higher at 80-90 percent coverage, so will continue to cap with no substantial indicators of definitive rainfall. Upper level disturbances will dance across the Gulf of Mexico and FL peninsula at various times through the remainder of the week, which may offer enhancement of afternoon thunderstorms.

High temperatures will return to near normal values in the lower 90s, likely limited by shower and storm coverage early in the day. Nighttime lows continue in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION.

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Drier air will keep rain chances below normal today. Winds are WSW at 5-10KT. Included VCTS for KMLB southward starting at 20Z. Confidence is not very high, will monitor and amend if needed. Tomorrow, winds will be SW at 5-10KT. Included VCTS for KMCO starting at 19Z, left all mention of VCTS/VCSH out of the TAF for the other sites. Will reevaluate for the 00Z TAF.

MARINE.

Rest of Today-Tonight . Southwest winds 10-15 knots through this evening as seas remain favorable 2 feet nearshore and 2-3 feet offshore. Isolated lightning storms could develop right along the coast due to a very late afternoon sea breeze collision. If any storms do develop they will quickly push offshore. Dangerous lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 35 knots are possible.

Tuesday-Friday . High pressure building back towards the local waters by mid week, and generally favorable boating conditions through the remainder of the week. West winds on Tuesday will become east by late Wednesday afternoon, remaining at 10-15 knots with seas of 2-3 feet. Thunderstorm development expected each afternoon with gusty winds and lightning strikes likely.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 75 93 75 92 / 10 40 10 40 MCO 77 94 76 94 / 10 40 10 50 MLB 76 92 75 91 / 20 40 10 50 VRB 74 93 74 91 / 20 30 10 50 LEE 77 94 76 94 / 20 40 10 40 SFB 78 95 77 95 / 10 40 10 50 ORL 78 95 78 94 / 10 40 10 50 FPR 74 94 74 91 / 20 40 10 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

Rodriguez/Kelly/Watson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SIPF1 4 mi53 min W 6 92°F 91°F1014 hPa (-1.0)
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 22 mi57 min 84°F1 ft
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 41 mi57 min 83°F2 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 42 mi83 min 82°F
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 51 mi43 min SSE 9.7 G 12 85°F 85°F1013 hPa78°F
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 86 mi83 min 86°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Vero Beach, Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL11 mi60 minSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy93°F73°F54%1013.4 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL22 mi60 minSW 710.00 miFair94°F77°F58%1013.5 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL22 mi60 minW 710.00 miA Few Clouds94°F73°F52%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVRB

Wind History from VRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS15SW8SW10SW9S7S6SW10SW8SW8SW7SW7SW6SW5S5SW5SW8SW7SW10SW9W10W8
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1 day agoS6S8SW4SW6S7S7S9SW8S7SW6SW7SW6SW5SW5S5SW7N4SW8SE8SE10S13
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2 days agoSE6SE7S7S6SW7SW6S10W12SW12NW4S6SW6SW6W7W10W10W12W13W10NW7NW6W7S13Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Sebastian, Indian River, Florida
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Sebastian
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:09 AM EDT     0.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:20 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:45 PM EDT     0.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0-000.10.10.100-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.10.10.100-0-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Vero Beach (ocean), Florida
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Vero Beach (ocean)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:16 AM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:40 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:01 PM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:03 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.72.92.92.521.30.80.40.40.61.11.72.32.72.92.72.41.81.30.90.70.91.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.