Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay Pines, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 755 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Line of thunderstorms has setup around the Interstate 4 corridor out into the eastern gulf this evening with a few of the storms becoming rather strong and producing wind gusts up to 40 mph. Have also seen a couple of couplets over the coastal waters in the cells out ahead of the main line and this will remain a possibility for the next few hours with a waterspout or two possible. This convection will continue to move across central and southwest Florida early tonight, but is expected to gradually weaken as it moves further south toward southwest Florida later this evening and overnight. Behind this convection more showers are expected late tonight into Monday morning ahead of the actual cold front which will be moving south through the area during Monday reaching the Tampa Bay and Interstate 4 corridor around midday and exiting southwest FLorida and the southern interior by late afternoon. Forecast has been tweaked to adjust the timing and location of the convection overnight, otherwise remainder of forecast looks good.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the TAF sites this evening, but are expected to weaken as they move into southwest Florida around midnight. IFR/brief LIFR conditions will be possible with the thunderstorms early tonight, with more MVFR/IFR ceilings later tonight into Monday morning. Winds are rather variable across the region as a warm front sits just south of Tampa Bay with south to southwest winds from around SRQ southward with north to northeast winds around Tampa Bay. The thunderstorms are producing wind gusts up to around 30 knots, otherwise winds overnight will become rather light until the cold front moves south through the region late Monday morning and afternoon shifting the flow to northerly at around 10 knots.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 115 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

A near-zonal upper level flow has set up over Florida and will persist through Monday morning. At that time, broad upper troughing moves eastward through the southeast U.S., then exiting into the western Atlantic by early Tuesday morning. On the surface, high pressure east of the Bahamas ridges westward across southern Florida while the persistent frontal boundary that has been over northern Florida and the northern gulf waters slowly meanders southeastward through the day. Most of the rainfall associated with this front will be limited to Tampa Bay and northward through the early afternoon, then increasing in coverage and intensity as the main cold front line moves southeastward across west central and southwest Florida later this afternoon/evening and continuing into the early morning hours on Monday. The latest high-res guidance is bringing some strong storms into the eastern gulf waters and west coast of Florida this evening. There is a potential for some severe weather with this line of storms with isolated damaging winds and brief tornadoes possible. SPC has placed most of west central and southwest Florida in a Marginal Risk of Severe Storms through early Monday morning. Some residual showers and a stray storm will be possible through late Monday morning.

The front will finally push south and east of Florida by Monday afternoon. Strong high pressure builds in behind this front and will bring clearing conditions and slightly cooler weather for most of next week. Temperatures for Monday through Thursday next week will only reach the mid 60's to mid 70's each afternoon with overnight lows dipping into the 40's and 50's each night. By next Friday, temperatures warm slightly to right around average for this time of year. By late Friday into Saturday, models are developing another area of low pressure and frontal boundary over the northern gulf coast states and will bring our next chance of showers to end next week. Another cool down looks to be on track to move into the area by next weekend.

MARINE
Issued at 115 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

A frontal boundary extending across northern Florida and the northern gulf waters will meander southeastward through the day keeping variable winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through Monday morning. Showers and storms increase in coverage and intensity through the day with numerous showers and isolated storms expected this afternoon/evening and continuing into the early morning hours on Monday. Some of these storms may be severe and have the potential to produce damaging winds and brief waterspouts over the eastern gulf waters. Mariners should use caution and remain weather aware when operating in the eastern gulf waters today.

By Monday afternoon, the front pushes southeast of Florida and high pressure builds in from the northwest. This will clear out the rain and storm chances, but will bring some hazardous boating conditions with breezy north-northeast winds around 15-20 knots and seas up to 5 feet for Monday and Tuesday. Pleasant boating conditions expected mid to late next week with winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 115 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

A frontal boundary stretched across northern Florida shifts further southeastward today through early Monday morning with increasing rain and storm chances expected this evening and continuing through Monday morning. High pressure builds back in by Monday afternoon with pleasant weather expected for most of next week. No other fire weather concerns expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 67 75 54 70 / 90 30 0 0 FMY 71 79 58 75 / 60 50 0 0 GIF 65 75 52 70 / 90 30 0 0 SRQ 67 76 54 71 / 90 50 0 0 BKV 59 74 44 69 / 90 20 0 0 SPG 68 74 57 69 / 90 40 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.