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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 940 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through Monday afternoon...
This afternoon..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late.
Tonight..West winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming north after midnight. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 940 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis.. Cold front pushing across the waters today into tonight will bring increasing southerly preceding winds followed by north to northwest post-frontal winds reaching advisory levels by this afternoon and evening spreading from northern to southern waters. Winds and seas remain elevated through Monday before gradually diminishing into Tuesday. Flow shifts to e/ne by Wednesday and likely returns to cautionary to advisory levels due to gradient with high pressure to the north, likely persisting into late week or the weekend. Showers and Thunderstorms likely today and tonight as front pushes across the waters before drier air works into area for Monday and Tuesday, with showers likely returning mid to late week.

FXUS62 KTBW 101756 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1256 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 515 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Relatively active period expected later today as a cold front makes its way across the peninsula this afternoon and evening preceded by a round of showers and thunderstorms. Mild conditions in place this morning with another day of above normal temps expected with highs reaching the lower 80s prior the to arrival of the front with increasing southerly winds through the morning into afternoon. Line of showers and storms currently over the central gulf will approach the area from late morning into afternoon across the Nature Coast before spreading into central and southwest Florida during the afternoon into evening before clearing south of the area tonight.

Sufficient instability and shear supportive of organized convection and a few strong to severe thunderstorms is likely ahead of the front, with a marginal risk of damaging wind gusts with stronger convection. Additionally, a few storms could develop a brief tornado threat particularly along the coast as some hi- res guidance hints at the possibility of a few storms forming ahead of the main line of convection, otherwise any tornado threat will remain limited to our typical brief, embedded spin-ups as the primary line of storms pushes across the area. SPC has highlighted Nature Coast areas down to around I-4 including Tampa Bay and the Sarasota area under a Marginal Risk for severe storms, with the threat increasing this morning over the Nature Coast before expanding south through the afternoon and diminishing this evening. Other SWFL areas can expect showers and perhaps a strong storm or two, however best dynamics aloft will be pulling away from the region as storms make their way farther south, therefore overall threat is likely to diminish with southward extent particularly later this evening.

The front clears the area by Monday with high pressure setting up over the E U.S. as a cooler and drier air mass filters into the state. Cool start to the day on Monday expected with temps dropping into the 40s north to around 60 south, followed by well below normal highs on Monday only topping out in the 60s across the area, some 10-15 degrees below normal for many locations.
Another cool morning on Tuesday before a moderating trend back toward more seasonable temps begins with temps gradually warming back into lows in the 60s and highs in the 70s through mid week and beyond.

The mid to late week period of forecast remains shadowed in a bit of uncertainty as today's frontal boundary stalls well south of the area over the first few days of the week before slowly lifting back northward into the southern gulf by mid week in tandem with shortwave energy aloft moving east across the gulf, providing enough lift to perhaps support a broad area of most likely light precip developing over the area by Thursday and Friday as easterly surface flow north of the surface boundary draws Atlantic low-level moisture over the state. Deterministic guidance remains at odds on the eventual evolution of the forecast thereafter, with the GFS partially phasing a Great Lakes/OH Valley shortwave with a southern stream disturbance over TX and the northern Gulf Coast allowing cyclogenesis over the E Gulf into W Atlantic allowing another push of cooler drier air into the state next weekend, while the ECMWF depicts greater spacing between the disturbances aloft preventing phasing and allowing unsettled conditions to linger into early next week before potentially lifting out. Ensemble guidance currently lies generally in between the deterministic solutions, therefore the current forecast indicates mainly 20-40 PoPs from around Thursday through next weekend, with expected refinement as lead time narrows.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

The period will begin VFR but flight conditions will quickly deteriorate later this afternoon and evening as a cold front and line of thunderstorms moves through the region. The main line of storms will arrive around 21Z-23Z for Tampa Bay terminals and around 00Z-02Z for SWFL terminals and have included TEMPOs at all terminals when the greatest restrictions will be expected. The precipitation activity will quickly taper off tonight but MVFR CIGs will spread across the region for the overnight hours in the wake of the cold front. VFR conditions then return to the area by Monday morning and continue through the remainder of the period with gusty SW winds ahead of the front turning to the NW behind the front tonight and shifting to more northerly on Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 515 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Cold front pushing across the waters today into tonight will bring increasing southerly preceding winds followed by north to northwest post-frontal winds reaching advisory levels by this afternoon and evening spreading from northern to southern waters.
Winds and seas remain elevated through Monday before gradually diminishing into Tuesday. Flow shifts to E/NE by Wednesday and likely returns to cautionary to advisory levels due to gradient with high pressure to the north, likely persisting into late week or the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms likely today and tonight as front pushes across the waters before drier air works into area for Monday and Tuesday, with showers likely returning mid to late week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 515 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Cold front pushing across the area today will bring showers and storms much of the day today before high pressure builds to the north with cooler drier air mass working into the peninsula on Monday. Moisture gradually recovers mid to late week as additional unsettled conditions develop favoring at least a chance of showers late week into next weekend. No fire concerns expected, however, as enough moisture remains in place through the period to maintain minimum RH values in the 40-50 percent range on Monday before recovering thereafter.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 52 64 49 73 / 70 0 0 0 FMY 58 69 53 76 / 50 0 0 0 GIF 49 64 48 73 / 70 0 0 0 SRQ 52 66 49 75 / 70 0 0 0 BKV 44 63 41 72 / 60 0 0 0 SPG 53 63 52 70 / 70 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM EST this evening through late Monday night for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

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Hillsborough Bay
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Sun -- 04:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM EST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:03 PM EST     1.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:41 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:36 PM EST     1.94 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:11 PM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hillsborough Bay, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Shell Point
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Sun -- 04:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:47 AM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:04 PM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:27 PM EST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:12 PM EST     2.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Point, Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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