Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Aransas, TX
May 16, 2024 6:07 PM CDT (23:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:37 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 1:21 PM Moonset 1:50 AM |
GMZ230 Bays And Waterways From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth.
Tonight - Southeast wind around 10 knots shifting south after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight.
Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wednesday night - North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough.
Thursday - Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.
Thursday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Friday - North wind 10 to 15 knots shifting southeast in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Friday night - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bays choppy.
Saturday - South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy.
Saturday night - Southeast wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.
GMZ200 238 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
moderate onshore flow will decrease to under 15 knots tonight, then becoming light by Friday. There is a low chance for showers and Thunderstorms across the bays and nearshore waters tonight, mainly north of port aransas. If a storm does develop, there is a low chance they could become strong to severe. There is a low to medium chance of showers and Thunderstorms continuing into Friday. Rain chances decrease Friday night, followed by drier conditions Saturday. Weak onshore flow may be variable at times veering northeast briefly Saturday before returning to onshore flow. Flow increases to weak to moderate early Monday and prevails through the work week. Chances for rain or Thunderstorms during the period is extremely low, less than 10%.
moderate onshore flow will decrease to under 15 knots tonight, then becoming light by Friday. There is a low chance for showers and Thunderstorms across the bays and nearshore waters tonight, mainly north of port aransas. If a storm does develop, there is a low chance they could become strong to severe. There is a low to medium chance of showers and Thunderstorms continuing into Friday. Rain chances decrease Friday night, followed by drier conditions Saturday. Weak onshore flow may be variable at times veering northeast briefly Saturday before returning to onshore flow. Flow increases to weak to moderate early Monday and prevails through the work week. Chances for rain or Thunderstorms during the period is extremely low, less than 10%.
Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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FXUS64 KCRP 162040 AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 340 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Key Messages:
- Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) of Severe Storms across the Victoria Crossroads through tonight.
- A Marginal to Slight Risk of Severe Storms on Friday with the Slight Risk being across the eastern portions of South Texas.
- A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across the Victoria Crossroads tonight.
Models are having trouble with timing of embedded short waves aloft ahead of an approaching long wave trough. There is also uncertainty with the timing of a cold front or outflow boundary from ongoing convection currently moving into the Hill Country and whether it will stall north of S TX or across S TX by Friday. These features will dictate where, when and how strong storms become. What is known is that the environment is very unstable and there is ample moisture in place across the region, but there is also a strong capping inversion.
Mainly showers have occurred across S TX today due to the cap inhibiting deeper convection, along with the fact that there currently is little to no low level forcing. That will change once the cold front/outflow boundary sinks southward toward S TX. This will also coincide with an embedded short wave tracking northeast across the region.
It is expected that there will be two rounds of storms with the first round late this afternoon into evening hours, mainly across the Victoria Crossroads due to the cap weakening across that area allowing for deeper convection. A few hours of generally quiet weather is expected behind those storms through overnight. The second round, based on short range models, is progged to develop across Mexico southwest of the area around 09-12Z and move northeast as another embedded short lifts to the northeast. In addition, the main trough will also be nearing the area leading to increasing upper level diffluence as a 105-110kt upper jet sinks southward across the area. The boundary is forecast to stall across S TX (if it can get this far south) between 09-18Z Friday. This boundary will provide strong low level moisture convergence where ever it stalls.
Most models prog that convection will shift from southwest to northeast with the embedded short wave, but the models differ on when it will move into the Rio Grande Plains with models ranging anywhere from 09Z to 15Z and exiting the region to the northeast between 18-23Z Friday afternoon. Rain chances range from low to medium (20-50%) across the Victoria area tonight and low to medium (20-40%) across S TX on Friday.
The overall time frame is this afternoon through Friday afternoon.
Given the instability and abundant moisture combined with the upper and lower support, some storms could become strong to severe with damaging wind being the main threat and hail being the secondary threat. The threat of tornadoes is very low (<5%), but can not be ruled out. The Storms Prediction Center has placed the Victoria Crossroads in a Slight Risk of severe weather through tonight and the eastern half of S TX on Friday with a Marginal Risk across the west.
The Weather Prediction Center has placed the Victoria Crossroads in a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall through tonight. Rainfall totals are expected to be one inch or less, but some locations, mainly across the Victoria Crossroads, could have up to 2-3 inches leading to localized flooding of low lying and urban areas.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Key Messages:
▶ Temperatures trend warmer through Tuesday
▶ A Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts from dangerous heat next week across much of South Texas
As an upper level disturbance moves east of Texas, this will allow for ridging to build over the state, ushering in drier conditions aloft. The lack of moisture combined with subsidence will preclude any rain/storm chances throughout the long term period as we remain under strong mid-level ridging and a dry vertical profile. The synoptic pattern is going to remain quasi zonal and quiet as most disturbances stay in the higher latitudes.
PWAT's of around 1.25" (GEFS mean) are progged to remain below the normal value (~1.50" for mid May) through the first half of next week but will steadily rise to near or slightly above normal in response to weak to moderate onshore flow helping to promote an increase in low level moisture. As moisture and surface temperatures both increase so does the heat index and the risk for heat related illness. Tuesday looks to be the peak with a Heat Index around 110- 115 degrees across much of the region except northeast where a more modest 105 degrees is expected. The rest of the work week, look for heat indices around 105-110 across the CWA Regardless, these conditions will result in a Moderate to Major risk for heat related illnesses. This level of heat can affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Please be prepared for the heat and take proper precautions to stay cool and hydrated.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Isolated to scattered showers currently moving north across S TX, will continue this trend through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly across the VCT area. The activity is expected to wane late this afternoon into this evening, then redevelop after 10Z Friday and continue through 18Z Fri as another disturbance tracks across the region. Mainly eastern areas are expected to have convection with the VCT area the most likely to have TSRAs. There has been a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions this morning, but VFR conditions are expected to become prevailing through the afternoon. MVFR conditions will become prevailing by 03-06Z this evening for ALI, CRP and VCT, then around 07Z for COT. LRD may remain at VFR levels overnight with a brief period of MVFR by mid morning Friday.
MARINE
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Moderate onshore flow will decrease to under 15 knots tonight, then becoming light by Friday. There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms across the bays and nearshore waters tonight, mainly north of Port Aransas. If a storm does develop, there is a low chance they could become strong to severe. There is a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms continuing into Friday.
Rain chances decrease Friday night, followed by drier conditions Saturday. Weak onshore flow may be variable at times veering northeast briefly Saturday before returning to onshore flow. Flow increases to weak to moderate early Monday and prevails through the work week. Chances for rain or thunderstorms during the period is extremely low, less than 10%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 76 91 75 95 / 10 30 10 0 Victoria 72 86 69 94 / 40 30 10 0 Laredo 74 95 74 102 / 10 30 0 0 Alice 74 90 71 97 / 10 40 10 0 Rockport 76 87 75 91 / 10 40 10 0 Cotulla 73 93 72 100 / 10 20 20 0 Kingsville 75 91 74 96 / 10 40 10 0 Navy Corpus 79 89 78 91 / 10 30 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 340 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Key Messages:
- Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) of Severe Storms across the Victoria Crossroads through tonight.
- A Marginal to Slight Risk of Severe Storms on Friday with the Slight Risk being across the eastern portions of South Texas.
- A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across the Victoria Crossroads tonight.
Models are having trouble with timing of embedded short waves aloft ahead of an approaching long wave trough. There is also uncertainty with the timing of a cold front or outflow boundary from ongoing convection currently moving into the Hill Country and whether it will stall north of S TX or across S TX by Friday. These features will dictate where, when and how strong storms become. What is known is that the environment is very unstable and there is ample moisture in place across the region, but there is also a strong capping inversion.
Mainly showers have occurred across S TX today due to the cap inhibiting deeper convection, along with the fact that there currently is little to no low level forcing. That will change once the cold front/outflow boundary sinks southward toward S TX. This will also coincide with an embedded short wave tracking northeast across the region.
It is expected that there will be two rounds of storms with the first round late this afternoon into evening hours, mainly across the Victoria Crossroads due to the cap weakening across that area allowing for deeper convection. A few hours of generally quiet weather is expected behind those storms through overnight. The second round, based on short range models, is progged to develop across Mexico southwest of the area around 09-12Z and move northeast as another embedded short lifts to the northeast. In addition, the main trough will also be nearing the area leading to increasing upper level diffluence as a 105-110kt upper jet sinks southward across the area. The boundary is forecast to stall across S TX (if it can get this far south) between 09-18Z Friday. This boundary will provide strong low level moisture convergence where ever it stalls.
Most models prog that convection will shift from southwest to northeast with the embedded short wave, but the models differ on when it will move into the Rio Grande Plains with models ranging anywhere from 09Z to 15Z and exiting the region to the northeast between 18-23Z Friday afternoon. Rain chances range from low to medium (20-50%) across the Victoria area tonight and low to medium (20-40%) across S TX on Friday.
The overall time frame is this afternoon through Friday afternoon.
Given the instability and abundant moisture combined with the upper and lower support, some storms could become strong to severe with damaging wind being the main threat and hail being the secondary threat. The threat of tornadoes is very low (<5%), but can not be ruled out. The Storms Prediction Center has placed the Victoria Crossroads in a Slight Risk of severe weather through tonight and the eastern half of S TX on Friday with a Marginal Risk across the west.
The Weather Prediction Center has placed the Victoria Crossroads in a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall through tonight. Rainfall totals are expected to be one inch or less, but some locations, mainly across the Victoria Crossroads, could have up to 2-3 inches leading to localized flooding of low lying and urban areas.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Key Messages:
▶ Temperatures trend warmer through Tuesday
▶ A Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts from dangerous heat next week across much of South Texas
As an upper level disturbance moves east of Texas, this will allow for ridging to build over the state, ushering in drier conditions aloft. The lack of moisture combined with subsidence will preclude any rain/storm chances throughout the long term period as we remain under strong mid-level ridging and a dry vertical profile. The synoptic pattern is going to remain quasi zonal and quiet as most disturbances stay in the higher latitudes.
PWAT's of around 1.25" (GEFS mean) are progged to remain below the normal value (~1.50" for mid May) through the first half of next week but will steadily rise to near or slightly above normal in response to weak to moderate onshore flow helping to promote an increase in low level moisture. As moisture and surface temperatures both increase so does the heat index and the risk for heat related illness. Tuesday looks to be the peak with a Heat Index around 110- 115 degrees across much of the region except northeast where a more modest 105 degrees is expected. The rest of the work week, look for heat indices around 105-110 across the CWA Regardless, these conditions will result in a Moderate to Major risk for heat related illnesses. This level of heat can affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Please be prepared for the heat and take proper precautions to stay cool and hydrated.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Isolated to scattered showers currently moving north across S TX, will continue this trend through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly across the VCT area. The activity is expected to wane late this afternoon into this evening, then redevelop after 10Z Friday and continue through 18Z Fri as another disturbance tracks across the region. Mainly eastern areas are expected to have convection with the VCT area the most likely to have TSRAs. There has been a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions this morning, but VFR conditions are expected to become prevailing through the afternoon. MVFR conditions will become prevailing by 03-06Z this evening for ALI, CRP and VCT, then around 07Z for COT. LRD may remain at VFR levels overnight with a brief period of MVFR by mid morning Friday.
MARINE
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Moderate onshore flow will decrease to under 15 knots tonight, then becoming light by Friday. There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms across the bays and nearshore waters tonight, mainly north of Port Aransas. If a storm does develop, there is a low chance they could become strong to severe. There is a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms continuing into Friday.
Rain chances decrease Friday night, followed by drier conditions Saturday. Weak onshore flow may be variable at times veering northeast briefly Saturday before returning to onshore flow. Flow increases to weak to moderate early Monday and prevails through the work week. Chances for rain or thunderstorms during the period is extremely low, less than 10%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 76 91 75 95 / 10 30 10 0 Victoria 72 86 69 94 / 40 30 10 0 Laredo 74 95 74 102 / 10 30 0 0 Alice 74 90 71 97 / 10 40 10 0 Rockport 76 87 75 91 / 10 40 10 0 Cotulla 73 93 72 100 / 10 20 20 0 Kingsville 75 91 74 96 / 10 40 10 0 Navy Corpus 79 89 78 91 / 10 30 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| HIVT2 | 0 mi | 49 min | 84°F | 29.53 | 84°F | |||
| RTAT2 - 8775237 - Port Aransas, TX | 0 mi | 49 min | SE 8G | 84°F | 82°F | 29.54 | ||
| PTAT2 - Port Aransas, TX | 1 mi | 67 min | SSE 15G | 82°F | ||||
| UTVT2 | 1 mi | 49 min | 85°F | 29.50 | 82°F | |||
| ANPT2 | 2 mi | 49 min | ESE 16G | 82°F | 82°F | 29.52 | ||
| MHBT2 | 7 mi | 49 min | S 14G | 84°F | 84°F | 29.54 | 84°F | |
| LQAT2 | 12 mi | 49 min | S 17G | 84°F | 85°F | 29.52 | 84°F | |
| RCPT2 - 8774770 - Rockport, TX | 13 mi | 49 min | S 18G | 83°F | 85°F | 29.50 | ||
| PACT2 - 8775792 - Packery Channel, TX | 17 mi | 49 min | SE 13G | 85°F | 84°F | 29.56 | ||
| TAQT2 - 8775296 - Texas State Aquarium, TX | 17 mi | 49 min | 85°F | 83°F | 29.51 | |||
| TXVT2 | 17 mi | 49 min | 85°F | 29.52 | 82°F | |||
| TLVT2 | 20 mi | 49 min | 88°F | 29.52 | 81°F | |||
| NUET2 | 22 mi | 49 min | S 12G | 83°F | 29.51 | |||
| VTBT2 | 24 mi | 49 min | SSE 13G | 88°F | 82°F | 29.52 | 79°F | |
| IRDT2 | 28 mi | 49 min | SSE 18G | 84°F | 86°F | 29.55 | ||
| AWRT2 | 30 mi | 49 min | S 17G | 83°F | 83°F | 29.53 | ||
| BABT2 - 8776604 - Baffin Bay; Point of Rocks, TX | 42 mi | 49 min | SE 17G | 83°F | 89°F | 29.54 | ||
| SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX | 44 mi | 49 min | S 18G | 84°F | 83°F | 29.52 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRAS MUSTANG BEACH,TX | 2 sm | 12 min | SSE 12G17 | 3 sm | Clear | Haze | 86°F | 79°F | 79% | 29.55 |
| KNGP CORPUS CHRISTI NAS/TRUAX FIELD,TX | 16 sm | 11 min | SSE 20G27 | 4 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Haze | 88°F | 81°F | 79% | 29.54 |
| KRKP ARANSAS CO,TX | 17 sm | 14 min | S 09G22 | 3 sm | A Few Clouds | Haze | 86°F | 79°F | 79% | 29.53 |
| KCRP CORPUS CHRISTI INTL,TX | 23 sm | 16 min | S 11 | 5 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Haze | 88°F | 81°F | 79% | 29.54 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Port Aransas, Texas, Tide feet
Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:44 AM CDT -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:49 AM CDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:37 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:44 AM CDT 1.00 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:20 PM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 06:14 PM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:11 PM CDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:35 PM CDT -0.28 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:56 PM CDT -0.15 knots Min Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:44 AM CDT -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:49 AM CDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:37 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:44 AM CDT 1.00 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:20 PM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 06:14 PM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:11 PM CDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:35 PM CDT -0.28 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:56 PM CDT -0.15 knots Min Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.7 |
| 1 am |
| -0.8 |
| 2 am |
| -0.8 |
| 3 am |
| -0.8 |
| 4 am |
| -0.8 |
| 5 am |
| -0.7 |
| 6 am |
| -0.6 |
| 7 am |
| -0.4 |
| 8 am |
| -0 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.2 |
Corpus Christi, TX,
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