Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 4:00 AM   Moonset 4:43 PM

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GMZ230 Bays And Waterways From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. Tonight - Southeast wind around 10 knots shifting south after midnight. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Patchy fog in the morning. Wednesday night - North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough. Thursday - Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Thursday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - North wind 10 to 15 knots shifting southeast in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday night - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bays choppy. Saturday - South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. Saturday night - Southeast wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 242 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through Thursday. Winds will back more to the northeast Friday into Saturday with the passage of a frontal boundary. Small craft exercise caution conditions will be present most of the week. There is a low chance of showers and Thunderstorms pushing offshore this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains dry.

FXUS64 KCRP 050741 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 241 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Difficult forecast in terms of convection today. Models generally do not have a great handle on things...though the 00Z 3km NAM is impressively in line with current convection
This model
along with several others including the past several runs of HRRR keep the bulk of the convection north of our forecast area this morning, though some isolated showers will be possible, mainly in the northern Coastal Bend. The big question for the day will be where an outflow from the convection north of us lands today as this will likely become a focus for afternoon convective development. Latest models are trending more north with this boundary, and it's possible we only see isolated to scattered activity here this afternoon
But
it's also possible the boundary drifts closer and we see a line of storms push through our area. There is a slight chance for strong to severe storms for our northern tier of counties and a marginal risk south.
Basically, if we get convection, it could become strong to severe with 0-6km shear values above 50kt and plenty of cape, especially south of the lingering boundary.

Low level moisture remains deep enough Sunday night to maintain a chance for isolated showers, but heading into Monday that moisture gets quite shallow and should be the end of any notable rain chances. After a very seasonal day (for high temperatures), we'll begin our warming trend tomorrow, adding 5+ degrees to today's values. The Rio Grande Plains should top out in the upper 90s.



LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a moderate to high chance of heat index values 100 degrees and higher for much of the region from Tuesday through Thursday.
- A front Thursday night will usher in drier air and return temperatures to near normal for this time of year.

Onshore flow will keep above normal moisture in place across South Texas through much of this week. Temperatures will begin to rise, peaking Thursday, as hot and dry air from the Mexican Plateau expands eastward above the region. These hot temperatures will mix down to the surface each afternoon through Thursday before a front moves through helping to cool things down a bit.

HeatRisk values (level 3 out of 4) for much of South Texas suggest a significant risk to all individuals who are exposed to the sun and active or are in a heat-sensitive group. There is a moderate to high chance that heat index values in excess of 100 degrees will occur Tuesday through Thursday for the majority of the region. Some locations may approach heat indices of 110 degrees. A Heat Advisory may be needed towards the middle of the week, especially for the Southern Coastal Bend region.

A front looks to move through Thursday night, which will usher in drier air and temperatures closer to normal (mid-80s near the coast to upper 80s/low 90s inland). There will also be a low chance of precipitation with this front, but there remains significant uncertainty this far out.|

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MVFR ceilings have settled in at ALI/VCT. CRP has broken out to a VFR conditions but expect them to return to MVFR in the next couple of hours. COT/LRD remain at VFR and will likely fall later in the night. There remains some uncertainty in our convective potential tomorrow. For now, remained with a mention to VCTS but delayed in the timing a few hours based on trends in the latest CAMS. Any convection that does develop looks to be south of the area by 00Z. VFR conditions may briefly return tomorrow afternoon with MVFR taking back on by 03Z Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through Thursday. Winds will back more to the northeast Friday into Saturday with the passage of a frontal boundary. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be present most of the week.
There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms pushing offshore this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains dry.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 86 75 88 76 / 40 20 0 0 Victoria 84 73 88 74 / 50 20 0 0 Laredo 90 75 97 75 / 60 0 0 0 Alice 88 74 92 74 / 40 10 0 0 Rockport 84 75 85 77 / 40 20 0 0 Cotulla 89 75 95 74 / 60 10 0 0 Kingsville 87 75 90 75 / 40 20 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 77 85 77 / 40 20 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Aransas Channel
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Sun -- 12:50 AM CDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:59 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:16 AM CDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:43 PM CDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:37 PM CDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Channel, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:32 AM CDT     0.68 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:59 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:41 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:12 AM CDT     -0.07 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:53 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:36 PM CDT     0.18 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:05 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:41 PM CDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:44 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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