Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Roseland, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 855 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Showers and lightning storms over interior portions of the area (mainly west of Orlando) are beginning to diminish this evening.
The heaviest rain totals from earlier (according to MRMS) reached 2-2.5 inches in a couple of spots in Lake and western Orange counties. Now, additional showers and storms are developing over the Atlantic, and some of this activity is shown in hi-res guidance to track southwestward toward our coast tonight. As a result, this forecast update includes refinements to rain chances overnight, with a focus for the highest chances along the immediate coast. Lightning storms will remain possible, along with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. The remainder of the forecast is in good shape.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Increased moisture associated with a decaying frontal boundary extending offshore of the First Coast will sag into central Florida as high pressure over the eastern US pushes offshore the Mid-Atlantic seaboard behind the boundary.
Satellite imagery as well as radar imagery from KJAX and KMLB show hints of a weak surface trough forming along the boundary out beyond the JAX and MLB coastal waters. Subsidence and drier air on the western side of this feature appears to be producing an environment unfavorable (but not impossible) for convection over the Atlantic waters and to the coast, so based on current trends and the latest HRRR and RAP guidance, have pulled back rain and storm chances for this evening a bit. That said, across the northern counties and farther inland away from this feature, RAP analysis shows the environment remains favorable for a continued low (20-30 %) chance of showers and lightning storms, capable of occasional cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds to 40 mph, and locally heavy rainfall (especially if a storm gets stuck on a boundary), where boundary interactions can get things going. In addition, there is another opportunity for a little rain tonight from a low (20-30%) chance of showers and lightning storms moving onshore from late tonight into the morning.

As for the rest of the forecast, weak onshore flow and the sea breeze keeps the coast's temperatures near normal during the day, while very warm conditions continue inland, with above normal overnight temperatures for all.

Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The aforementioned area of high pressure at the surface will gradually drift southward through the remainder of the work week, with the ridge axis also shifting towards the Florida peninsula. While some lingering activity Tuesday morning from remnant overnight storms, and in the afternoon afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland cannot be ruled out, mostly dry conditions are anticipated to prevail across east central Florida each day. Onshore winds Tuesday and Wednesday will be further enhanced during the afternoons by the east coast sea breeze, with wind speeds reaching 10 to 15 mph. As the ridge axis shifts southward, winds veer to out of the southeast on Thursday and out of the south on Friday.
Winds along the coast back to out of the east-southeast as the sea breeze moves inland each afternoon. Skies are anticipated to remain mostly clear until Friday, when increasing moisture locally will support greater cloud coverage across the area. Slightly cooler into Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s, but this is short- lived as conditions warm mid to late week back into the mid 80s to low 90s. Lows generally remain in the low to mid 60s, though some upper 50s cannot be ruled out Tuesday and Wednesday nights in the more rural portions of east central Florida.

Saturday-Sunday...(Previous Discussion) The next best chance for rain looks to be this weekend. Guidance indicates that a mid-level trough will sweep southeastward from the Great Lakes towards the Mid-Atlantic, swinging northeastward towards New England. At the surface, this will translate to a cold front sweeping across the southeastern U.S., weakening as it moves towards the Florida peninsula. As it approaches east central Florida, moisture will increase, with rain chances also increasing as a result. Between the weakening front and the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon, shower activity will have some sort of mechanism present helping to kick it off in the afternoons.
Isolated storms cannot be ruled out, though confidence at this time remains low. There does remain some deal of discrepancy between guidance at this time, with the GFS being the wetter solution at this time. Stuck with the NBM, which keeps PoPs at 20 to 30 percent each day. While activity is anticipated to gradually diminish into the overnight hours across the peninsula, some lingering showers and storms will be possible across the local Atlantic waters. Outside of rain chances, temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

MARINE
Issued at 855 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

An area of high pressure moves southeastward off the coast of the Carolinas, pushing a weakening cold front southwestward into the local Atlantic waters tonight. A 20 pct chance of lightning storms capable of gusty winds to 35 kts and occasional cloud to water lightning continues. Persistent onshore flow increases to 15 to 20 knots overnight across the offshore waters, continuing through Tuesday and Tuesday night. Seas respond by building up to 6 feet in the Gulf Stream, and 4 to 5 feet elsewhere. Small craft will need to exercise caution across the offshore waters tonight through Tuesday as a result of these deteriorating boating conditions.

High pressure shifts farther south Wednesday through Friday, with a return of generally favorable boating conditions anticipated across the local waters. Onshore winds 10 to 15 knots gradually veer to out of the south-southeast at 10 to 15 knots by the end of the week. Seas subside back to 3 to 5 feet through the remainder of the period. Dry conditions return, with no mentionable rain chances forecast until the weekend.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Evening convection west of KMCO should continue to focus westward and diminish into mid evening. ENE/E winds diminishing this evening and overnight, increasing again on Tue 10-17 kts into the afternoon with higher gusts (20-25 kts). Will monitor if ISOLD convection is able to develop along the east coast overnight and possibly further inland Tue morning across interior TAF sites, though confidence is low. Models also hint at some MVFR CIGs later tonight into early Tue morning and will amend as necessary.
VFR otherwise.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

A weakening front is forecast to sag into Central Florida this evening, resulting in increasing moisture, rain, and storm chances. While the greater moisture will keep minimum RH values above critical thresholds and onshore flow is anticipated to remain between 10 to 15 mph, sensitive fire weather conditions are still anticipated due to the chance for storms. Any lightning strikes could spark new wildfires, with the greatest chance for storms focused from the Orlando metro towards the Cape and areas northward this evening, which do encompass some of our driest areas across east central Florida, and along the coast tonight.

Lingering moisture into Tuesday will quickly dry out mid to late week, with minimum RH values forecast to fall once again to 35 to 45 percent across the interior from Wednesday through Friday.
Onshore flow Tuesday and Wednesday veers to out of the southeast on Thursday and out of the south on Friday, though backing along the coast is anticipated as a result of the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. No rain chances forecast from Wednesday through Friday, allowing for continued drying of fuels and sensitive fire weather conditions. Next best chance for rain is forecast for this weekend, though discrepancies between models on timing and extent of rainfall still need to be worked out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 80 63 81 / 30 20 0 0 MCO 69 84 63 85 / 10 20 0 0 MLB 71 81 67 81 / 30 20 0 0 VRB 70 81 66 81 / 30 20 0 0 LEE 68 85 63 87 / 30 20 0 0 SFB 68 84 62 85 / 10 20 0 0 ORL 69 84 64 85 / 10 20 0 0 FPR 69 81 65 81 / 30 20 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.