Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Progress Village, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Broad upper level ridging centered in the central Gulf ridges northeastward across Florida and along the eastern seaboard. On the surface, high pressure located near Bermuda ridges west-southwest across Florida and into the eastern Gulf. This synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged until Sunday morning, when upper troughing digs into the Mississippi River Valley and a weak frontal boundary pushes through the southeast U.S. This will nudge the upper ridging and surface high slightly southward on Sunday and Monday.
The weather through Sunday will be hot and rain-free each day.
Daytime highs will reach the mid 80s to around 90 today, then widespread 90s for Friday through Sunday. Overnight lows will dip into the 50s and 60s each night. The next best chance of any rain will be next Monday afternoon as the weak front moves through the area, but will remain on the low side at around 10-20 percent.
Slightly cooler temperatures closer to average expected for the first half of next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR and rain-free conditions along with winds less than 10 knots will prevail through the forecast period.

MARINE
Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

High pressure near Bermuda ridges across Florida and into the eastern Gulf waters keeping a persistent easterly wind flow 15 knots or less over the region through the week and into the weekend. Winds will turn onshore during the afternoon/evening as the sea breeze sets up. This high pressure will also keep rain-free conditions over the Gulf waters through the end of the week and into the weekend. A cold front moves through the region on Monday, but rainfall will be limited with mostly rain-free conditions continuing. Winds and seas will increase in the wake of this front as strong high pressure builds in from the north producing a tight pressure gradient over the eastern Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed starting Monday morning and continuing through the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

High pressure ridging over the area will keep rain-free conditions over the area through the week and into the weekend. Some critical RH values below 35 percent expected, but light winds below 15 mph will preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. The next chance of any rainfall comes next Monday as a weak cold front moves through the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 66 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 88 63 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 84 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 88 57 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 85 70 88 71 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.