Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Progress Village, FL

DISCUSSION
Ridging continues aloft over the region today with surface high pressure to our north extending south over the state resulting in easterly flow. A few showers and storms are starting to pop up toward the Florida east coast and these are expected to increase in number as they slowly trek inland toward our side of the state, with the best rain chances along the coast later this evening. This overall pattern is pretty similar for Friday and Saturday with east flow and higher rain chances along the coast later in the evening.

For Sunday into early next week, a broad area of low pressure is expected to develop along a front over much of the Gulf of Mexico and very slowly drift eastward. Some model solutions actually keep some form of this feature across the region through most, if not all, of next week. This will obviously be the main player in our weather coming up, keeping abundant clouds over our area along with widespread showers and thunderstorms. At this point, models have been pretty consistent in showing a disorganized low lingering over the Gulf, so confidence is increasing that this is what we will get and concern will now shift toward the heavy rainfall potential. WPC currently has much of our local area within a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for day 5 (Monday)
and would expect this trend to continue into next week as well, especially if this system lingers as it's currently being shown.
Right now, the highest rainfall risk appears to be from around I-4 southward, but some details are still to be seen.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Kept VCTS for initial couple of hours from SRQ southward with tempo showers or storms as lingering convection continues trekking toward the coast while gradually diminishing. VFR expected tonight into Friday followed by next round of activity during the afternoon and evening bringing next chance of restrictions.
Easterly flow 5-10 knots through period.

MARINE
Easterly flow will continue through the weekend and into next week, with wind speeds increasing to exercise caution levels each night starting Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly in the late evening hours through Saturday, then become possible at almost any time through next week.

FIRE WEATHER
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 90 76 88 / 40 50 10 20 FMY 76 91 76 90 / 40 60 30 40 GIF 76 90 75 90 / 20 40 10 30 SRQ 75 91 75 90 / 30 50 20 30 BKV 74 91 73 89 / 20 40 10 20 SPG 79 90 79 90 / 40 50 20 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.