Sunrise 6:58 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:28 PM   Moonset 3:49 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 935 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Rest of tonight - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming north overnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.Friday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots and becoming north overnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Saturday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming west around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots and becoming southeast overnight. Bay and inland waters light chop.Sunday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Sunday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Monday - West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - Northeast winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 935 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis - Light winds and seas continue through the weekend with an onshore flow developing each afternoon along the coast as a warm and dry airmass remains in place. The next storm system approaches north florida on Monday, some Thunderstorms and increasing winds and seas are possible, especially across northern waters.

FXUS62 KTBW 182340 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 740 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The warm and dry pattern will persist through the weekend, but with the gradual increase in low level moisture the threat for some late night/early morning fog will return. For tonight it looks like inland parts of the Nature Coast could see some patchy fog, then a better chance in the same area Friday night into early Saturday morning with the chance extending south to around the Interstate 4 corridor during this time. Have included this fog in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow night, otherwise everything else looks on track with no other adjustments needed at this time.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Some late night/early morning fog will be possible over inland areas north of Interstate 4 tonight, and then a better chance late Friday night into early Saturday over inland areas from around the Interstate 4 corridor northward possibly affecting LAL. Otherwise, no significant aviation concerns are expected. through the weekend with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will become light and variable later this evening into early Friday then shift to west to northwest and increase during the afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Broad upper-level ridging remains in place as a weak but dry surface high persists at the surface. The sea breeze boundaries are the main feature of note in this setup as the light flow is allowing inland propagation and a moderating of coastal temperatures with water temperatures in the 70s. However, the aforementioned dry and stable airmass remains a barrier to any convective development, despite a setup not unlike a summer day.

Over the coming days, the gradual return of moisture may yield enough low-level convergence to support an isolated shower across the interior of the peninsula. That being said, this is still very low probability. As such, have introduced a 10% POP for parts of the interior, but it's really difficult to have much more confidence than that into next week.

The most notable feature on the horizon for next week is a shortwave trough that yields some amplification in the flow and a period of enhanced vertical ascent that may yield a few storms across mainly the northern half of the Florida peninsula on Monday.
Otherwise, though, weather conditions are not really expected to change. If anything, it may yield an increase in the overall moisture content, favoring additional diurnal activity through the end of the week.

Overall, though, conditions largely look warm and dry. While this is a little earlier than normal and favors some record high temperatures being set, we are fast approaching that period of the year where this becomes the norm.

MARINE
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Light winds and seas continue through the weekend with an onshore flow developing each afternoon along the coast as a warm and dry airmass remains in place. As another storm system approaches north Florida on Monday, some thunderstorms and increasing winds and seas are possible, especially across northern waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Conditions remain warm and dry through the weekend as high pressure remains in control. However, winds are forecast to remain light at this time with no red flag conditions expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 69 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 68 87 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 66 92 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 68 86 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 61 87 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 71 84 71 83 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Pendola Point, Hillsborough Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Thu -- 04:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:45 AM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:50 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:48 PM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:03 PM EDT     0.57 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current, knots

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