Friday, February21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Safety Harbor, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:26PM Friday February 21, 2020 9:34 AM EST (14:34 UTC) Moonrise 5:58AMMoonset 4:48PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 923 Am Est Fri Feb 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
This afternoon..North winds around 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tonight..North winds around 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 923 Am Est Fri Feb 21 2020
Synopsis.. Robust north to northeast winds are expected to produce advisory conditions through Saturday morning, then winds and seas will subside for Sunday. Early next week southeast to south flow increases once again as high pressure moves out into the western atlantic ocean and the next storm system moves into the eastern states.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Safety Harbor, FL
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location: 27.97, -82.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 211217 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 717 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

UPDATE.

A cool, cloudy, windy day is in store for the area today. Skies should be clearing from north to south this afternoon. Winds over the water will justify the SCA currently running. I am contemplating a lake wind advisory but it appear we will be just below criteria. The forecast looks on track this morning the main concern will be adjusting slowly lifting ceilings behind the front.

Prev Discussion. /issued 637 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020/

AVIATION .

The front has pushed south to near PGD and will continue southward this morning. Behind the front overrunning is producing low ceilings with some IFR conditions. Just ahead of the front is a line of mostly light rain.

Prev Discussion . /issued 313 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020/

DISCUSSION . A dramatic change is underway across the Florida peninsula as the upper-level trough dragging the attendant cold front pushes through. Surface observations suggest the the surface front is currently somewhere in the Citrus/Hernando/Sumter area. Winds in Pasco/Polk (where reliable) are showing a generally WSW direction. Meanwhile, winds in Levy and outside our area in Marion have shifted to the NE. Temperatures are falling rapidly behind the front. As of 2AM, Cross City airport is reporting a temp of 46F, while the airport at Brooksville is still at 72F. This is a very steep thermal gradient. This strong temperature change will be driving a pretty decent pressure gradient, and subsequently increasing winds through the morning hours. Today will be pretty breezy, and this will only help to reinforce the very noticeable change in weather.

A few light showers are ongoing and will likely continue through the next few hours along and just ahead of the front. Behind the front, a cold NE wind is help advect the substantially colder air into the area. Strong CAA throughout the day means that, in addition to temperatures certainly not warming much, we are also likely to stay quite cloudy through the day. The cloud cover will only reinforce this. The question is when will the clouds lift. Guidance is adamant that conditions will begin to clear out tonight, but we'll see if this holds up as the day progresses.

Temperatures remain cold through Saturday. Tomorrow morning is expected to be the coldest morning. Temperatures will begin to rebound thereafter, with the gradient weakening and high pressure taking over. Some 80s are in the forecast for mid-week, along with some showers as moisture returns and instability increases. With the pattern across the CONUS amplifying through the week, this will not be the last front we see. Another front will arrive Thursday to once again cool things down, brining cooler air back just in time for the weekend.

MARINE . A few showers are pushing through portions of offshore waters along a cold front. As the front passes, winds and seas are increasing, and will do so fairly quickly. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Saturday morning for all Coastal Waters along with Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Winds and seas begin to subside thereafter as the pressure gradient begins to weaken, and temperatures will also begin to gradually rebound before another front arrives late in the work week.

FIRE WEATHER . A few light showers will push through over the next few hours as a cold front passes. Behind the front, winds increase and dispersions will too, but they will quickly subside as winds also subside. No other fire weather concerns exist as RH values remain above critical thresholds.

Prev Discussion . /issued 103 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020/

AVIATION . CIGS have been bouncing at airports, but have generally dropped to IFR for northern terminals, and southern terminals are beginning to see MVFR CIGS. Over the next few hours, all terminals should be IFR, and stay IFR through much of the day, if not longer. Also went ahead and added a TEMPO for -DZ at northern terminals. Some observations sites upstream have been reporting some precip. While there is not much on radar near northern terminals, it is not unreasonable to assume there could be some very light precip below the radar beam, and some webcams north of KTPA/KPIE support this. High-res guidance also continues to show some precip moving through in the next couple hours. Winds are expected to pick up as well with the tightening gradient over the next few hours. Will continue monitoring and update as necessary.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. TPA 62 43 70 51 / 10 0 0 0 FMY 71 48 73 55 / 10 0 0 0 GIF 60 44 69 50 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 66 45 72 53 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 60 38 69 45 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 64 45 71 53 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.



UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER . 04/Sobien UPPER AIR . 19/Hurt DECISION SUPPORT . 24/Hubbard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 8 mi53 min NNE 16 G 26 51°F 71°F1022.9 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 10 mi47 min NNE 14 G 19 53°F 73°F1022.2 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 13 mi101 min N 13 G 19
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 14 mi101 min NNE 12 G 15 51°F 1022.7 hPa
MCYF1 14 mi47 min 75°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 14 mi53 min N 15 G 22
CLBF1 16 mi101 min NNE 5.1 G 9.9 54°F 1020.2 hPa
GCTF1 16 mi53 min 54°F 1022.1 hPa50°F
PMAF1 24 mi47 min 54°F 68°F1021.3 hPa
42098 29 mi35 min 69°F6 ft

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL4 mi42 minNNE 16 G 2510.00 miOvercast53°F48°F83%1022.6 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL8 mi42 minN 12 G 209.00 miOvercast50°F45°F83%1022.9 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL11 mi39 minNE 11 G 1910.00 miOvercast53°F46°F79%1022.3 hPa
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL13 mi40 minNNE 15 G 2110.00 miOvercast54°F51°F94%1022.7 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL14 mi42 minNE 22 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Breezy55°F52°F90%1021.7 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL18 mi40 minNNE 8 G 185.00 miFog/Mist50°F48°F94%1023 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPIE

Wind History from PIE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN6N7N6N9NE5NW9NW9NW8NW4N5N3N4N6N6NE5NE6NE7E6NE8E7E5E8E8E7
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SE8SW8SW12SW9SW10SW6SW4S4SW3SE3CalmCalmCalmN4E5E5NE4NE3NE3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Safety Harbor, Old Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Florida
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Safety Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:11 AM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:33 AM EST     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:32 PM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:25 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:10 PM EST     1.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.52.42.21.81.30.60-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.10.50.91.31.41.51.41.31.21.31.51.8

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:55 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:12 AM EST     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:19 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:18 PM EST     1.26 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:53 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:09 PM EST     -0.50 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:25 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:50 PM EST     0.78 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0-0.4-0.7-1-1.3-1.4-1.3-0.9-0.20.511.21.20.90.4-0-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.10.40.70.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.