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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 803 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 803 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis.. Broad high pressure will continue to build in over the southeast u.s. Producing east-northeast winds around 10-15 knots over the eastern gulf waters through Thursday. By early Friday, the high moves eastward off the mid-atlantic states with the winds becoming more southeast through the weekend. A front stalls just to the north of the waters with some showers and storms possible mainly across the northern half of the waters for Friday and continuing through the weekend.

FXUS62 KTBW 300102 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 802 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Another cold night areawide expected but not quite as cold as last night. Satellite imagery showing a thin cirrus shield moving over the N Gulf coast region into N FL that is expected to increase overnight and into Thursday. The Canadian surface high pressure area has slightly shifted eastward today that will slowly continue tonight. This should make the low level flow veer more NE tonight bringing a shallow marine layer off the W Atlantic. Models showing these features should keep temps above freezing for most of Levy County but a few localized cold prone areas may briefly approach 32 degrees early Thursday morning. The other cold weather concern is frost in the morning and expect it to be mainly patchy over the Nature Coast while the normally colder and wind sheltered locations may see areas of frost especially in Levy County. But the overall cold weather threats are expected to be less than last night/this morning. Latest grids and forecasts updated and on track.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Dry and VFR conditions continue with SCT-BKN cirrus. Expect N-NE winds around 5 knots tonight then becoming E-SE Thursday around 10 kts. Patchy early morning frost is possible over the Nature Coast's colder fields and open areas.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 202 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Broad upper level troughing will continue to push eastward off the New England coastline with upper ridging and broad surface high pressure shifting eastward over the southeast U.S. over the next couple of days. We can expect about 24 more hours of unseasonably cool temperatures through Thursday evening with this recent cold surge. Below average temps expected today and will gradually warm up into the low 60's north, mid 60's central and low 70's over southwest Florida under mostly sunny skies today. Another cold night is on tap for tonight with temps staying just above freezing for the northern counties along the Nature Coast. Some brief periods of freezing temps may be possible, but not widespread enough to warrant the issuance of another Freeze Warning for Thursday morning. Some patchy frost will still be possible along the Nature coast.

By Thursday evening, high pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic states and will bring a shift in the winds to the southeast as well as the start of a warming trend that will bring temps back closer to seasonal averages. The next frontal system approaches the area from the northwest late Friday into Saturday and stalls out along the FL/FA line. This weak front will produce a chance of showers and storms, primarily over the Nature coast and northern gulf waters.
The next cool down will come on Tuesday and Wednesday next week as the front shifts over south Florida.

MARINE
Issued at 202 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Broad high pressure will continue to build in over the southeast U.S. producing northeast winds around 10-15 knots over the eastern gulf waters through Thursday. By early Friday, the high moves eastward off the mid-Atlantic states with the winds becoming more southeast through the weekend. A front stalls just to the north of the waters with some showers and storms possible mainly across the northern half of the waters for Friday and continuing through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 202 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

High pressure builds into the area from the north. A cooler and drier air mass has filtered into the area with some critical humidity values possible this afternoon, but winds are expected to remain light so no RFW will be needed. Moisture quickly rebounds by Thursday with no other fire weather concerns anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 49 76 63 82 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 55 79 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 49 75 59 83 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 49 78 61 83 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 39 75 56 83 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 55 74 64 79 / 0 0 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Mobbly Bayou, Florida, Tide feet

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Wed -- 02:32 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:10 AM EST     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:35 PM EST     1.15 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:55 PM EST     -0.17 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:16 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current, knots

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