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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 250 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming west 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots late this evening, then becoming northwest with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms, mainly this evening.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Friday..East winds around 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 250 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
a line of strong to severe Thunderstorms will move across the gulf waters through this evening as a strong cold front pushes through the area. Strong winds and waterspouts will be possible as this activity pushes through. The rain will taper off tonight as high pressure and drier air builds in from the north. Gusty nw winds and building seas are expected tonight in the wake of the cold front with small craft advisory conditions expected through Monday afternoon. Winds then shift to the northeast through the remainder of the week and will be near or exceeding small craft advisory levels as a tight pressure gradient sets up, which will make for a prolonged stretch of unpleasant boating conditions.

FXUS62 KTBW 101941 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 241 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A strong cold front and associated QLCS will continue to push across the area through this evening. The main concern with this activity remains damaging winds and embedded tornadic circulations given the increasing low level wind fields, pockets of enhances SRH, and lowering LCL heights as a shortwave trough swings through. This activity will then weaken and push out of the area by mid to late evening as drier air quickly advects in from the north with high pressure building across the lower Mississippi Valley overnight.
Cold air advection associated with the northerly low level flow will yield a rather chilly Monday with highs mainly in the 60s, which will be about 10-15 degrees below climatological norms for this time of the year. Gradual air mass modification then occurs for the remainder of the week as high pressure establishes north of the area and sets up a persistent easterly flow regime. Rain chances will also gradually increase from mid to late week as moisture begins to increase from south to north as the aforementioned frontal boundary begins to lift back northward across the FL peninsula. While confidence is increasing somewhat in the potential for a more unsettled pattern by late week, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty between the GFS and ECMWF on the timing and track of a surface low that is expected to develop near the southern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS continues to be quickest with developing a surface low and lifting it NNE across the FL peninsula but the ECMWF is further south with the initial development of the low and delayed as it doesn't seem to show much in the way of this feature until the weekend. Regardless of the exact track of this system, there are some signals that at least some drought relief could be on the way but it's too early to discuss specific QPF amounts of where the greatest rainfall chances will occur. This pattern will also set up a rather tight pressure gradient across the region with easterly wind speeds generally increasing each day through late week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

The period will begin VFR but flight conditions will quickly deteriorate later this afternoon and evening as a cold front and line of thunderstorms moves through the region. The main line of storms will arrive around 21Z-23Z for Tampa Bay terminals and around 00Z-02Z for SWFL terminals and have included TEMPOs at all terminals when the greatest restrictions will be expected. The precipitation activity will quickly taper off tonight but MVFR CIGs will spread across the region for the overnight hours in the wake of the cold front. VFR conditions then return to the area by Monday morning and continue through the remainder of the period with gusty SW winds ahead of the front turning to the NW behind the front tonight and shifting to more northerly on Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 231 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move across the Gulf waters through this evening as a strong cold front pushes through the area. Strong winds and waterspouts will be possible as this activity pushes through. The rain will taper off tonight as high pressure and drier air builds in from the north. Gusty NW winds and building seas are expected tonight in the wake of the cold front with small craft advisory conditions expected through Monday afternoon. Winds then shift to the northeast through the remainder of the week and will be near or exceeding small craft advisory levels as a tight pressure gradient sets up, which will make for a prolonged stretch of unpleasant boating conditions.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 231 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A strong line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area through this evening. A few severe storms could occur with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes being the main threat. Much drier and cooler air builds in on Monday in the wake of the a cold front, which may allow minimum RH values to approach critical levels mainly south and east of Tampa Bay but red flag conditions are not anticipated at this time. Winds then shift to the northeast by mid to late week and becoming increasingly breezier but this will help bring Atlantic moisture into the area and higher humidity values for much of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 51 65 48 72 / 70 0 0 0 FMY 58 70 52 76 / 50 0 0 0 GIF 49 64 47 73 / 70 0 0 0 SRQ 53 66 48 75 / 70 0 0 0 BKV 44 63 41 72 / 60 0 0 0 SPG 54 63 52 70 / 70 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM EST this evening through late Monday night for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

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Clearwater Beach, Gulf Of Mexico, Florida, Tide feet

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Sun -- 04:11 AM EST     -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:14 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:14 AM EST     1.11 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:53 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:52 PM EST     -0.37 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:55 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:50 PM EST     0.89 knots Max Flood
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current, knots

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