Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Melbourne, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Today-Tonight...High pressure drifts closer to the Florida peninsula today, but remains over the western Atlantic. The proximity of the high should prevent any enhanced wind gusts this afternoon (925mb winds 10kts or less). However, southeast winds are still forecast to increase to 10-15 mph this afternoon, mainly along the coast, as the sea breeze develops and moves inland.
Some higher cloud cover today, as cirrus moves over the area, though precipitation remains out of the forecast. Fire weather concerns continue. The main story will be the warming trend, with afternoon highs rising into the lower 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland. Fortunately, dry air limits heat indices today. Areas from Orlando westward could flirt with 90 degrees.
Overnight lows in the lower to mid-60s.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Same story, different day through at least mid-week, as high pressure lingers near the peninsula. Precipitation remains out of the forecast, leading to continued drought concerns and fuel drying. Daily prevailing east coast sea breezes will struggle to provide relief from increasingly warm temperatures. Highs in the lower to mid-80s are forecast along the coast, while interior locations reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.
For reference, high temperatures this time of year average in the lower 80s. A few record highs may be approached, particularly on Wednesday, though are not explicitly forecast at this time.
Overnight lows will remain in the 60s.

Thursday-The Weekend...A passing upper level shortwave trough weakens the ridge late week over the western Atlantic. However, it looks to be almost immediately replaced by additional ridging over the Southeast. This pattern will maintain a ridge axis north of the local area, leading to continued east to southeast flow through the weekend. Overall, the pattern is forecast to remain largely the same, with above average highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, while the daily sea breezes keep coastal areas nearer to normal in the lower to mid-80s. Little relief from fire weather concerns, as the sea breezes become breezy at times as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. However, have maintained very low (~20% or less) PoPs for the weekend, as increased PWATs closer to 1-1.2" advect into the area. Unfortunately, impactful QPF remains out of the forecast through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

High pressure remains north of the local waters this week, maintaining east to southeast flow each day. Winds 5-10 kts overnight increasing to 10-15 kts in the afternoons as the sea breeze develops. Seas 3-4 ft. Dry conditions persisting through Thursday before small (~20%) chances build into the waters south of Sebastian Inlet Thursday night into the weekend. Rain chances then spread northward by late in the weekend, though they remain low.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

High cloud cover drifts overhead, remaining VFR. East-southeast winds around 5-8 kts this morning increase to 10-13 kts with a sea breeze passage this afternoon. Occasional higher gusts forecast along the Treasure Coast. Dry conditions persist.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

High pressure continues to influence the local pattern this week, maintaining very sensitive fire weather conditions and little to no precipitation chances. Onshore flow each day will enhance in the afternoons as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Winds 10-15 mph from the east or southeast through at least Wednesday.
Combined with min RH 30-45% over the interior, this will lead to near-Red Flag conditions at times. While coastal areas will see the breeziest conditions, onshore flow will limit min RH in these areas to 45-55%. There will be increasing heat concerns this week, as highs soar into the mid-80s along the coast and lower 90s over the interior. Good to very good dispersion each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 83 64 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 89 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 82 67 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 82 66 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 89 66 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 88 65 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 89 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 82 65 83 66 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.