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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 243 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Tonight..South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast late this evening and overnight. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 243 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..
winds will become southerly tonight and shift to southwesterly on Sunday ahead of a strong cold front and an organized line of showers and Thunderstorms that is expected to move across the gulf waters by the late afternoon and evening hours. The southwest winds ahead of the frontal boundary will increase throughout the day with winds approaching exercise cautionary levels at times outside of any convection, but stronger winds and locally hazardous seas are expected in the vicinity of the line of storms that will move through. The showers and Thunderstorms will end by Sunday night and early Monday morning as the front pushes south of the area, but strong northerly winds and building seas will develop in the wake of the frontal boundary with small craft advisory headlines likely needed. Winds then gradually shift northeasterly into early next week with winds expected to reach exercise caution levels but small craft advisory levels may also be reached, especially in offshore marine zones.

FXUS62 KTBW 091934 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 234 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Surface high pressure in the western Atlantic shifts further eastward through the remainder of the weekend as an upper level trough amplifies as it swings across the eastern US on Sunday, which will gradually become more negatively tilted throughout the day. A strong cold front associated with this trough will sweep across the Southeast tomorrow and drop into the northern Florida by Sunday evening. Ahead of this frontal boundary, it seems that a solid squall line will develop and approach the forecast area with PoPs quickly increasing from northwest to southeast by late afternoon and evening, though it is possible that perhaps a few broken line segments will develop rather than one organized line. Regardless of the exact structure of the convection, there is a possibility that a few severe storms could occur as this activity moves through. The environment appears to resemble a high shear/low CAPE situation in which 0-6 km shear values of 40-45 kts will be in place but MLCAPE values should generally be less than 1000 J/kg. With this in mind, the primary threat with this activity will be damaging winds, especially in the vicinity of any bowing line segments but an isolated/brief tornado threat can't be completely ruled out, particularly north of Tampa Bay where the better dynamics will be.
As a result, a Marginal risk of severe weather is in effect tomorrow for all areas along and north of a Sarasota to Lakeland line. In addition to the severe potential, good moisture transport will allow PWATs to surge to around 1.8" or a bit more, which puts these values near the daily maximum for this time of the year so torrential downpours are expected but given ongoing drought conditions and progressive nature of this frontal passage, hydro issues are not expected at this time.

The cold front will push south of the area late Sunday night into Monday morning as cool high pressure builds in from the north. Cold air advection associated with the northerly low level flow will yield a rather chilly Monday with highs mainly in the 60s, though a few areas in SWFL may reach 70. Gradual air mass modification then occurs for the remainder of the week as high pressure sets up north of the area and sets up a breezy easterly flow regime. In addition, it does appear that rain chances will also gradually increase from mid to late week as moisture begins to increase from south to north as the aforementioned frontal boundary begins to lift back northward across the FL peninsula. The GFS continues to be most aggressive with a developing a potential surface low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico around Thursday but the ECMWF seems to be delayed with this feature and further south. Thus, there remains a lot of uncertainty throughout the mid to late week period with low confidence in the strength of high pressure to the north. However, confidence is at least increasing in a wetter and more unsettled pattern throughout this time frame with PoPs generally in the Slight/Chance range for now until better model agreement occurs.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day and tonight as high pressure remains in control. On Sunday, a strong cold front and an associated line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the area later in the day and in the evening. This could result in MVFR restrictions or worse towards the end of the current TAF period but it is likely that the main flight impacts from this activity will hold off until Sunday evening. In addition, winds will become southerly overnight and shift to the SW and increase on Sunday ahead of the cold front with some wind gusts of 20 kts or so possible outside of any convection.

MARINE
Issued at 231 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Winds will become southerly tonight and shift to southwesterly on Sunday ahead of a strong cold front and an organized line of showers and thunderstorms that is expected to move across the Gulf waters by the late afternoon and evening hours. The southwest winds ahead of the frontal boundary will increase throughout the day with winds approaching exercise cautionary levels at times outside of any convection, but stronger winds and locally hazardous seas are expected in the vicinity of the line of storms that will move through. The showers and thunderstorms will end by Sunday night and early Monday morning as the front pushes south of the area, but strong northerly winds and building seas will develop in the wake of the frontal boundary with small craft advisory headlines likely needed. Winds then gradually shift northeasterly into early next week with winds expected to reach exercise caution levels but small craft advisory levels may also be reached, especially in offshore marine zones.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 231 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Rain returns by Sunday as a strong cold front and a line of showers and thunderstorms approaches the region. Increasingly southwesterly winds ahead of this frontal boundary will bring deeper moisture and higher humidity through the remainder of the weekend with high rain chances expected for all areas late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. As a result, there are no fire weather concerns for the remainder of the weekend. Humidity values do get closer to critical levels by early next week as dry air builds in following the cold frontal passage but fire weather red flag conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 67 79 53 64 / 0 50 60 0 FMY 65 82 60 70 / 0 20 40 0 GIF 64 82 51 64 / 0 30 60 0 SRQ 64 79 52 66 / 0 50 50 0 BKV 62 81 46 63 / 10 60 60 0 SPG 67 76 54 63 / 0 50 60 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Hillsborough Bay
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Sat -- 03:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:13 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:57 PM EST     1.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:10 PM EST     1.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:44 PM EST     2.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hillsborough Bay, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Sat -- 03:37 AM EST     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:26 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:23 AM EST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:48 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:02 PM EST     -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:23 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:15 PM EST     0.85 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:58 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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Tampa Bay Area, FL,