Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fulton, TX
May 12, 2024 6:48 AM CDT (11:48 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:39 AM Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 9:32 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
GMZ236 Copano, Aransas, And Redfish Bays- San Antonio, Mesquite, And Espiritu Santo Bays- 216 Am Cdt Sun May 12 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots late this morning and afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms this morning. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Wednesday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ200 216 Am Cdt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
a generally moderate southeasterly flow will continue we we head into the work week. Increased moisture and a passing upper level disturbance will promote a 20-40% chance of showers and Thunderstorms today through Monday. A few storms may be strong to severe Monday afternoon and evening. Overall expecting mainly weak to moderate onshore flow to prevail throughout the week. Expect isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms over the waters this week where there is a low 10-25% chance for a few showers and Thunderstorms lingering through Monday night, dry on Tuesday then a low chance around 20% for storms Wednesday increasing to a low to moderate 25-40% chance for Thursday.
a generally moderate southeasterly flow will continue we we head into the work week. Increased moisture and a passing upper level disturbance will promote a 20-40% chance of showers and Thunderstorms today through Monday. A few storms may be strong to severe Monday afternoon and evening. Overall expecting mainly weak to moderate onshore flow to prevail throughout the week. Expect isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms over the waters this week where there is a low 10-25% chance for a few showers and Thunderstorms lingering through Monday night, dry on Tuesday then a low chance around 20% for storms Wednesday increasing to a low to moderate 25-40% chance for Thursday.
Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KCRP 121116 AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 616 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Issued a Coastal Flood Advisory through 3 PM for Gulf-facing beaches. We continue to run about 1.3' above normal we head into our next high tide cycle. Swells remaining elevated and above normal tides nudge confidence up enough to warrant issuing the Advisory.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Key Messages:
▶ Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms on Monday ▶ Moderate chance of minor coastal flooding today
Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a shortwave departing to our east as an upper level low churns across the Desert Southwest.
At the surface, MSAS analysis depicts a warm front draped from near Laredo to Port O'Connor. Moisture will continue to increase across the region as this boundary slowly lifts north through the day.
While confidence is low in our rain chances, we continue with a 20- 40% chance, generally across the Victoria Crossroads. The RAP pulls a H7 vort max through South-Central Texas today so it's possible that it provides enough lift for us to squeeze out some activity.
Any convection we do see will move off to our northeast late this afternoon.
By Monday, the upper level low will begin eject across the Southern Plains while sending a cold front across the state. The boundary looks to slow down or stall just north of us on Monday as a dryline nudges into the Brush Country. Increasing instability through the day will help promote a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show CAPE nearing or just over 4000 J/kg, 7-8C/km lapse rates, and bulk shear around 50 knots.
However, a stout cap is in place. If we are able to overcome the cap, we have a decent shot to see strong to severe thunderstorms develop during the mid afternoon hours with activity waning during the evening. SPC currently has much of our area east of TX HWY-16 included in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Monday.
Main threats look to be damaging winds and large hail.
Unfortunately, we kick off a warming trend today with temps climbing into the upper 80s to upper 90s across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country. We add on a few degrees on Monday with highs reaching the triple digits across the Brush Country.
Lastly, we will need to monitor our tide levels today as we could see some minor coastal flooding along our Gulf-facing beaches. We didn't quite make it to criteria yesterday so I am little hesitant to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory at this time. Tide levels are currently running about 1.3' above normal with swells around 7s.
However, our next high tide will be slightly lower than what we say yesterday and Gerling-Hanson plots suggest our swells will come down. All that to say that is a very borderline situation.
For now, will monitor the trends for the next few hours. If I decided to hold off on the midshift, we will have the day crew keep an eye on our water levels.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Key Messages:
▶ Low chance for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday ▶ Dangerous heat is possible on Thursday
Some lingering showers/thunderstorms remain possible Monday night with a small ~15% chance with a dryline near or over our western CWA and a frontal boundary just to our north. Regardless of whether or not the boundary stalls over/near our CWA or pushes through to the coast, expecting Tuesday to be dry due to a lack moisture aloft and PWAT's dropping below normal to around 1.15" (GEFS Mean). Onshore flow will keep dewpoints in the 70s along the Coastal Bend and steadily drops off the further west you go. The synoptic pattern during this time features a mid-level high over the SE Gulf, a mid- level low over the Central Plains and another low forming over the Pacific west of SoCal. PWAT's will start to rebound Tuesday as low- level onshore flow increases.
Wednesday through the end of the week several mid-level disturbances will keep rain chances in the forecast but overall the lack of deep layer moisture will be the limiting factor. In addition to the aforementioned frontal boundary in the vicinity of our region, there will be a 700mb vort max Wednesday morning followed by several shortwaves through Friday. Currently have a low 15-30% chance for convective activity Wednesday/Wednesday night, a low to moderate 20- 45% chance Thursday. Towards the end of the period, confidence remains low with another potential frontal boundary moving across the CWA this weekend as a couple of weak mid-level lows traverse across the Southern Plains. It's doubtful these will provide enough momentum to push the front through South Texas, so for now will keep silent PoP's in agreement with the NBM and monitor guidance/trends over the coming days.
Afternoon highs through the week will range in the 90s except for the barrier islands where mid 80s are expected and triple digits out west along the Rio Grande Plains. Thursday the moisture advection will push dewpoints to near 80 degrees and surface temperatures in the mid 90s will increase the risk for heat related illness. There's currently around a 45% chance for Max Heat Indices to reach 105 degrees and a 30% chance for 110 across the southern Coastal Bend.
Will continue to monitor this trend and provide updates as necessary. Overnight lows this week will range in the upper 60s to 70s.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Generally MVFR conditions are in place at this time. ALI/CRP continued to bounce between VFR and MVFR at times as they have through the night. VFR conditions will return by late morning across all sites. Showers are possible at ALI/CRP this morning.
Activity will move northeast towards VCT this morning. Have a mention of VCTS at VCT through mid afternoon. MVFR ceilings return areawide shortly after 00Z. Can't rule out brief IFR at VCT late tonight.
MARINE
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
A generally moderate southeasterly flow will continue we we head into the work week. Increased moisture and a passing upper level disturbance will promote a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms today through Monday. A few storms may be strong to severe Monday afternoon and evening. Overall expecting mainly weak to moderate onshore flow to prevail throughout the week.
Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters this week where there is a low 10-25% chance for a few showers and thunderstorms lingering through Monday night, dry on Tuesday then a low chance around 20% for storms Wednesday increasing to a low to moderate 25-40% chance for Thursday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 89 78 92 75 / 20 20 40 10 Victoria 86 76 89 70 / 40 20 50 20 Laredo 99 77 101 75 / 0 20 10 0 Alice 93 77 95 73 / 10 20 40 10 Rockport 85 78 86 75 / 30 10 40 10 Cotulla 97 78 97 74 / 0 20 20 0 Kingsville 92 77 94 75 / 10 20 40 10 Navy Corpus 86 79 87 78 / 20 20 40 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345- 442-443-447.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 616 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Issued a Coastal Flood Advisory through 3 PM for Gulf-facing beaches. We continue to run about 1.3' above normal we head into our next high tide cycle. Swells remaining elevated and above normal tides nudge confidence up enough to warrant issuing the Advisory.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Key Messages:
▶ Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms on Monday ▶ Moderate chance of minor coastal flooding today
Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a shortwave departing to our east as an upper level low churns across the Desert Southwest.
At the surface, MSAS analysis depicts a warm front draped from near Laredo to Port O'Connor. Moisture will continue to increase across the region as this boundary slowly lifts north through the day.
While confidence is low in our rain chances, we continue with a 20- 40% chance, generally across the Victoria Crossroads. The RAP pulls a H7 vort max through South-Central Texas today so it's possible that it provides enough lift for us to squeeze out some activity.
Any convection we do see will move off to our northeast late this afternoon.
By Monday, the upper level low will begin eject across the Southern Plains while sending a cold front across the state. The boundary looks to slow down or stall just north of us on Monday as a dryline nudges into the Brush Country. Increasing instability through the day will help promote a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show CAPE nearing or just over 4000 J/kg, 7-8C/km lapse rates, and bulk shear around 50 knots.
However, a stout cap is in place. If we are able to overcome the cap, we have a decent shot to see strong to severe thunderstorms develop during the mid afternoon hours with activity waning during the evening. SPC currently has much of our area east of TX HWY-16 included in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Monday.
Main threats look to be damaging winds and large hail.
Unfortunately, we kick off a warming trend today with temps climbing into the upper 80s to upper 90s across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country. We add on a few degrees on Monday with highs reaching the triple digits across the Brush Country.
Lastly, we will need to monitor our tide levels today as we could see some minor coastal flooding along our Gulf-facing beaches. We didn't quite make it to criteria yesterday so I am little hesitant to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory at this time. Tide levels are currently running about 1.3' above normal with swells around 7s.
However, our next high tide will be slightly lower than what we say yesterday and Gerling-Hanson plots suggest our swells will come down. All that to say that is a very borderline situation.
For now, will monitor the trends for the next few hours. If I decided to hold off on the midshift, we will have the day crew keep an eye on our water levels.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Key Messages:
▶ Low chance for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday ▶ Dangerous heat is possible on Thursday
Some lingering showers/thunderstorms remain possible Monday night with a small ~15% chance with a dryline near or over our western CWA and a frontal boundary just to our north. Regardless of whether or not the boundary stalls over/near our CWA or pushes through to the coast, expecting Tuesday to be dry due to a lack moisture aloft and PWAT's dropping below normal to around 1.15" (GEFS Mean). Onshore flow will keep dewpoints in the 70s along the Coastal Bend and steadily drops off the further west you go. The synoptic pattern during this time features a mid-level high over the SE Gulf, a mid- level low over the Central Plains and another low forming over the Pacific west of SoCal. PWAT's will start to rebound Tuesday as low- level onshore flow increases.
Wednesday through the end of the week several mid-level disturbances will keep rain chances in the forecast but overall the lack of deep layer moisture will be the limiting factor. In addition to the aforementioned frontal boundary in the vicinity of our region, there will be a 700mb vort max Wednesday morning followed by several shortwaves through Friday. Currently have a low 15-30% chance for convective activity Wednesday/Wednesday night, a low to moderate 20- 45% chance Thursday. Towards the end of the period, confidence remains low with another potential frontal boundary moving across the CWA this weekend as a couple of weak mid-level lows traverse across the Southern Plains. It's doubtful these will provide enough momentum to push the front through South Texas, so for now will keep silent PoP's in agreement with the NBM and monitor guidance/trends over the coming days.
Afternoon highs through the week will range in the 90s except for the barrier islands where mid 80s are expected and triple digits out west along the Rio Grande Plains. Thursday the moisture advection will push dewpoints to near 80 degrees and surface temperatures in the mid 90s will increase the risk for heat related illness. There's currently around a 45% chance for Max Heat Indices to reach 105 degrees and a 30% chance for 110 across the southern Coastal Bend.
Will continue to monitor this trend and provide updates as necessary. Overnight lows this week will range in the upper 60s to 70s.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Generally MVFR conditions are in place at this time. ALI/CRP continued to bounce between VFR and MVFR at times as they have through the night. VFR conditions will return by late morning across all sites. Showers are possible at ALI/CRP this morning.
Activity will move northeast towards VCT this morning. Have a mention of VCTS at VCT through mid afternoon. MVFR ceilings return areawide shortly after 00Z. Can't rule out brief IFR at VCT late tonight.
MARINE
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
A generally moderate southeasterly flow will continue we we head into the work week. Increased moisture and a passing upper level disturbance will promote a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms today through Monday. A few storms may be strong to severe Monday afternoon and evening. Overall expecting mainly weak to moderate onshore flow to prevail throughout the week.
Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters this week where there is a low 10-25% chance for a few showers and thunderstorms lingering through Monday night, dry on Tuesday then a low chance around 20% for storms Wednesday increasing to a low to moderate 25-40% chance for Thursday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 89 78 92 75 / 20 20 40 10 Victoria 86 76 89 70 / 40 20 50 20 Laredo 99 77 101 75 / 0 20 10 0 Alice 93 77 95 73 / 10 20 40 10 Rockport 85 78 86 75 / 30 10 40 10 Cotulla 97 78 97 74 / 0 20 20 0 Kingsville 92 77 94 75 / 10 20 40 10 Navy Corpus 86 79 87 78 / 20 20 40 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345- 442-443-447.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RCPT2 - 8774770 - Rockport, TX | 5 mi | 49 min | E 6G | 80°F | 82°F | 29.72 | ||
| HIVT2 | 16 mi | 49 min | 80°F | 29.74 | 80°F | |||
| ANPT2 | 17 mi | 49 min | NE 9.9G | 80°F | 81°F | 29.73 | ||
| LQAT2 | 17 mi | 49 min | E 8G | 79°F | 82°F | 29.73 | 79°F | |
| RTAT2 - 8775237 - Port Aransas, TX | 17 mi | 49 min | ENE 8G | 79°F | 81°F | 29.75 | ||
| UTVT2 | 17 mi | 49 min | 80°F | 29.71 | 80°F | |||
| MHBT2 | 18 mi | 49 min | ENE 6G | 79°F | 82°F | 29.74 | 79°F | |
| PTAT2 - Port Aransas, TX | 18 mi | 49 min | E 11G | 79°F | ||||
| AWRT2 | 19 mi | 49 min | E 9.9G | 79°F | 80°F | 29.76 | ||
| TAQT2 - 8775296 - Texas State Aquarium, TX | 24 mi | 49 min | 80°F | 81°F | 29.72 | |||
| TXVT2 | 24 mi | 49 min | 80°F | 29.73 | 80°F | |||
| TLVT2 | 26 mi | 49 min | 80°F | 29.73 | 79°F | |||
| NUET2 | 27 mi | 49 min | SSE 9.9G | 80°F | 29.72 | |||
| VTBT2 | 28 mi | 49 min | E 8.9G | 79°F | 80°F | 29.73 | 79°F | |
| SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX | 31 mi | 49 min | E 6G | 79°F | 81°F | 29.76 | ||
| PACT2 - 8775792 - Packery Channel, TX | 32 mi | 49 min | ENE 8G | 80°F | 81°F | 29.76 | ||
| IRDT2 | 43 mi | 49 min | E 7G | 80°F | 82°F | 29.75 | ||
| PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX | 45 mi | 49 min | NE 14G | 78°F | 80°F | 29.78 | ||
| MBET2 | 47 mi | 49 min | ESE 13G | 78°F | 80°F | 29.75 | ||
| VCAT2 | 47 mi | 49 min | ESE 13G | 78°F | 79°F | 29.76 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRKP ARANSAS CO,TX | 3 sm | 19 min | E 10 | 6 sm | Overcast | Mist | 81°F | 79°F | 94% | 29.77 |
| KRAS MUSTANG BEACH,TX | 19 sm | 13 min | E 07 | 7 sm | Overcast | 79°F | 77°F | 94% | 29.78 |
Rockport
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:15 AM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:32 AM CDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:39 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 10:31 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:47 PM CDT 0.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:09 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:15 AM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:32 AM CDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:39 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 10:31 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:47 PM CDT 0.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:09 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Rockport, Aransas Bay, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:15 AM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:38 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:40 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM CDT 2.10 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:32 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 04:55 PM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:09 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:15 AM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:38 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:40 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM CDT 2.10 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:32 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 04:55 PM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:09 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -2.1 |
| 1 am |
| -1.9 |
| 2 am |
| -1.5 |
| 3 am |
| -1 |
| 4 am |
| -0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1.9 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 2.1 |
| 11 am |
| 2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| -0 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| -1 |
| 9 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.8 |
Corpus Christi, TX,
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