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GMZ236 Copano, Aransas, And Redfish Bays- San Antonio, Mesquite, And Espiritu Santo Bays- 927 Am Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
Rest of today..East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast this afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy to occasionally rough. A chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy to occasionally rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 927 Am Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters..
winds will remain below 15 knots through Tuesday afternoon before a moderate to at times strong easterly flow develops Wednesday and persists through Friday. Winds will shift around to an offshore flow Friday night into Saturday as a cold front advances through the area. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible through the week and into the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday will become scattered to numerous by the end of the week.

FXUS64 KCRP 111724 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1124 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 433 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Mesonet sites across the northern Coastal Bend into the Victoria Crossroads show temperatures below freezing in low lying areas where drainage effects have occurred. The Freeze Warning will continue for this area along with Live Oak and McMullen Counties until 8 AM.

After a cold start, temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s to near 70 for inland areas as a weak onshore flow develops this afternoon with the surface high pressure ridge moving to the east.
Generally sunny skies are expected with some thin cirrus possible across southern part of the forecast area.

An upper trough moving through the Intermountain West today will drop south into the Great Basin and form into a closed low Tuesday afternoon. With surface trough of low pressure forming over the southern Rockies, low level flow will develop tonight and increase on Tuesday. NAM appears too aggressive with moisture return tonight, prefer the GFS showing moisture in the 295-300K layer increasing during the day Tuesday. Even with increasing clouds, temperatures are expected to warm into the 70s Tuesday.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 433 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Key Messages:

- Increased rain chances mid to late week

- Marginal risk for excessive rainfall Friday into Friday night

- Potential for minor coastal flooding and an increased risk of rip currents late week

A coastal trough developing ahead of the next advancing upper level system and associated cold front will lead to a steady increase in moisture across the area mid to late week. PWATs are progged to increase to near 1.3-1.5 inches by Wednesday, peaking at around 1.6 inches by Friday ahead of the front. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday (20-30%) will become scattered to numerous by Friday (50- 70%), with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. Although widespread flash flooding is not anticipated at this time, WPC has highlighted eastern portions of our CWA under a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Friday, with total rainfall amounts adding up to 2 inches through the end of the period.

The upper level low is progged to swing into west Texas Thursday night into early Friday morning, and exit somewhere along the upper Texas coast or Southeast Texas Saturday night, with high pressure quickly building in behind it. The front itself is expected to reach South Texas Friday evening leading to breezy, cooler and drier conditions on its wake. Rain chances will diminish Saturday through Sunday, though lingering moisture will maintain slight rain chances across the marine zones. High temperatures will range in the 60s and 70s ahead of the front, and in the 50s and 60s behind it. Saturday night is shaping to be the coldest in the Extended range with overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 40s inland.

In terms of additional hazards, there will be an increased risk for rip currents and minor coastal flooding along the Gulf-facing beaches of the Middle Texas Coast as we head into the latter part of the week. A persistent moderate to at times strong easterly flow offshore and swell periods around 8-11 seconds may bring run-up above 2 feet MSL mainly at the time of high tide beginning Thursday night. Although no advisories are in effect for this event yet, we will need to continue to monitor the beach and seas conditions in case one is needed on a later package.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon and evening with southeast winds less than 10 knots expected. Moisture return early Tuesday morning will contribute to areas of SCT/BKN clouds developing but the likelihood of MVFR ceilings is very low.

MARINE
Issued at 433 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Light and variable winds early this morning will become weak onshore during the late morning and continue through tonight.
A weak to moderate onshore flow is expected Tuesday.

A moderate to at times strong easterly flow will develop Wednesday and persist through Friday. Winds will shift around to an offshore flow Friday night into Saturday as a cold front advances through the area. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible through the week and into the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday will become scattered to numerous by the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 69 53 75 63 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 68 45 72 55 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 70 49 73 62 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 70 49 75 59 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 67 54 73 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 70 47 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 70 50 75 61 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 68 59 73 65 / 0 0 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Rockport
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Mon -- 12:14 AM CST     0.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:09 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:16 AM CST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:33 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rockport, Aransas Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
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Mon -- 05:51 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:03 AM CST     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:08 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:21 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:46 PM CST     2.08 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:24 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:33 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:31 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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