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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 1020 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
This afternoon..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, increasing to 25 to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas to 13 feet. A chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 9 to 11 feet with occasional seas to 15 feet. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 10 to 12 feet with occasional seas to 17 feet. A chance of showers.
Friday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 10 to 12 feet with occasional seas to 17 feet. A chance of showers.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 1020 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis..A fresh north to northwest breeze will continue across the waters today behind a strong cold front shifting into south florida. This will continue to produce hazardous boating conditions across the coastal waters through early this afternoon, with poor to hazardous boating continuing through early this week as high pressure northwest of florida builds toward the mid-atlantic region. Tightening pressure gradient between frontal boundary south of florida and high pressure to the north will lead to a strengthening onshore flow into mid to late week. This will lead to hazardous to potentially dangerous boating conditions across the entire waters.

Gulf stream hazards..North to northwest winds 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to around 20 knots late this afternoon. Seas building up to 7 feet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, december 9th.
48 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 111509 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1009 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1005 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Much Cooler Behind a Cold Front Today into Tonight

Surface analysis shows the cold front that passed through the local area last night has cleared the Florida peninsula and is currently in the Florida Straights this morning. Otherwise, fairly quiet across east central Florida as a broad deck of low to mid level clouds stream across the local area. A much cooler start to the day, with temperatures at 9 AM ranging from upper 40s across the north to low 60s along the Treasure Coast.

A high pressure system will build across the SE US through tonight, allowing for dry conditions through the time period. Expect breezy to gusty northerly winds today, with gusts 20-30 mph. Skies will become clear to mostly clear late this morning with afternoon high temperatures ranging from low 60s to low 70s. Forecast remains on track.

MARINE
Issued at 1005 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Poor to hazardous marine conditions continue today. High pressure will build across the southeast US, brining dry conditions across the local waters into tonight. North to northwest winds 20-25 knots today will veer to the north to northeast overnight and slacken slightly to 15-20 knots. Seas build to 4-6ft with up to 7ft in the Gulf Stream. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 1pm for all of the waters with nearshore Volusia and Brevard county waters dropping after 1pm.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

MVFR CIGs across east central FL this morning as a broad deck of low to mid level clouds spread across the local area. Skies will become clear to mostly clear later this morning as high pressure builds over the SE US, with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Northwest winds around 10 KT this morning will veer north to northeast and become breezy by early afternoon, with gusts around 20 KT. Winds will then slacken overnight, especially across inland terminals with some breezy conditions lingering along the coast.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 440 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

High pressure will build across the southeastern CONUS today behind a cold front which has brought much drier and cooler air. MinRH values are expected to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s across Lake, western Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Okeechobee counties. Low RH and north winds around 10 to 15 mph will result in fire sensitive conditions this afternoon over the aforementioned areas.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 440 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Today-Tonight...A gusty north breeze with gusts to 20-30mph and clear skies this afternoon will make for a brisk cool day across central Florida. High pressure will build across the southeastern CONUS through tonight. We'll remain dry with high temperatures topping out well below-normal for this time of year - in the low 60s to low 70s. Expect dry conditions overnight with north winds gusting to 15-25mph along the coast under partly cloudy skies.
Lows are forecast to drop into the low to upper 40s to the west of I-95 and the low 50s to low 60s to the east. Wind chill values will drop into the mid 30s to low 40s along and north of I-4 with the low 40s to mid 50s to the south.

Tuesday-Friday...High pressure will build toward the Mid-Atlantic region, with flow veering onshore and strengthening through mid to late week as pressure gradient tightens between strong high to the north and stalled front south of FL. This will lead to breezy to windy conditions through much of the week, with onshore flow also gradually increasing moisture across the area. It will remain dry into Tuesday, but rain chances will begin to rise through the rest of the week, as increasing coverage of onshore moving showers occurs across the area. Conditions should remain dry near to northwest of line from Lake Kissimmee to the Cape on Wednesday, with PoPs up to 30-50 percent along the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County. Chance PoPs (around 30-50 percent) then expand northward across the area through the remainder of the week.
Greatest rain chances through the period will remain focused along the Treasure Coast. There will be the potential for some localized heavy rainfall across southern portions of the Treasure Coast from Wed-Thu, with a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across Martin and southeast St. Lucie counties both days.

Skies will be partly cloudy to start on Tuesday, but mostly cloudy conditions will then prevail through much of the week. Onshore flow will lead to an increase in max temps to the 70s on Tuesday, and then cloud cover will generally keep highs in the 70s for the rest of the week. Warming trend will also impact overnight lows, with values back in the 60s across much of the area.

Stronger onshore flow into mid to late week will lead to building seas across the waters, which will lead to hazardous surf conditions, including higher risk of rip currents and large breaking waves at the beaches. Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion concerns will also increase through mid to late week, especially around the times of high tide.

Saturday-Sunday...Forecast becomes much more uncertain into the weekend, as model guidance continues to diverge in their solutions of developing low pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico (along stalled frontal boundary). GFS continues to be faster with its formation, lifting the low toward the north and then east-northeast and across FL into Saturday night and Sunday, but the latest ECMWF run is slower, not moving this low through FL until Sunday night.
Both solutions do indicate a period of unsettled weather and much wetter conditions into the weekend, but just differ on exact timing of higher rainfall coverage. For now, chance PoPs up to 30-50 percent continue for the weekend. Highs remain in the 70s with overnight lows generally in the 60s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 61 47 70 60 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 64 49 72 61 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 67 52 74 65 / 0 10 0 10 VRB 68 54 75 65 / 0 10 0 10 LEE 62 43 69 56 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 63 47 72 60 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 64 49 72 60 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 69 55 75 65 / 0 10 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550- 552.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.

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Canova Beach
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Mon -- 05:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:17 AM EST     4.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:30 PM EST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:15 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:13 PM EST     3.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canova Beach, Florida, Tide feet

Patrick Air Force Base
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Mon -- 05:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:06 AM EST     4.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:18 PM EST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:15 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:02 PM EST     3.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Patrick Air Force Base, Florida, Tide feet

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