Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Satellite Beach, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 259 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Today-tonight... High pressure across the western Atlantic will continue to slowly shift southward today as a frontal boundary shifts southward across the Deep South towards the Florida peninsula. Locally, westerly winds will prevail today with speeds of 8-12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. A weak east coast sea breeze will try to form late this afternoon and push onshore to about I-95, mainly across the Treasure Coast. Drier air remains in place with forecast PW values around 0.7-0.8" today, although the airmass is beginning to moisten a little. Isolated light showers are moving into northern Lake and Volusia Counties this afternoon. These showers should move into the area over the next couple of hours before dissipating or moving offshore. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions expected tonight. There is a High risk of rip currents once again at all area beaches today. Entering the chilly surf is discouraged!

Temperatures today will remain above normal for this time of year.
Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s areawide. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 50s. Models are indicating patchy dense fog will be possible late tonight into early Thursday morning. The greatest potential for fog development will be mainly from Lake Kissimmee to Daytona north and westward.

Thursday-Friday... High pressure will begin to shift eastward (farther out to sea) while continuing to shift southward as the aforementioned weak front across the Deep South moves into north Florida Thursday. This front is then forecast to stall across north- central Florida and become diffuse through Friday. Locally, moisture will increase along and ahead of this boundary, with forecast PW values of 0.9-1.1" both days. This will support rain chances returning to the forecast, with trends increasing the potential across the local area for both days. Models are indicating there is a low to medium (20-30 percent)chance of showers area wide both days. The greatest potential for rain on Thursday will be from Brevard to Osceola counties northward to Lake and Seminole counties, and the greatest potential on Friday will generally be along the coast from Daytona Beach southward. Patchy fog will once again be possible late Thursday night into Friday morning, mainly from a line from Lake Okeechobee up towards I-95 in Brevard to Daytona Beach and areas westward. Slight warming trend continues with temperatures forecast to be above normal each day. Afternoon highs will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the interior, and low to mid 70s along the coast each day. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s each night.

Saturday-Tuesday... Upper level trough over Texas on Saturday will steadily push eastward across the Deep South and over the Florida peninsula through early next week. This will result in the next frontal boundary moving across east central Florida late weekend into early next week. There remains uncertainty with this frontal system as models continue to disagree on timing of the front. The GFS remains the slower solution with the front pushing through more during the day on Monday, and the the ECM having the front push through Sunday night into Monday. As of right now, leaning more towards the ECM solution. High pressure will then build over the Florida peninsula on Tuesday. Moisture ahead and along the front will spread across east central Florida, resulting in rain chances continuing through early next week.

Rain chances are on an upward trend for late week/early next week with the frontal passage. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent chance) of showers Saturday, with the highest rain chances occurring along the coast, and a medium (30-60 percent) chance of rain occurring areawide during the day on Sunday before increasing to 50- 70 percent areawide on Sunday night. Given the uncertainty of the timing of the front, rain chances will linger through the day on Monday, with 30-40 percent chance of rain areawide. These rain chances on Monday may continue to go up if the frontal passage trends slower. There is a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms Sunday night through Monday as instability increases from the shortwave energy associated with the trough/front, as well as daytime heating.

Breezy and gusty southwest winds ahead of the front on Sunday will decrease and turn north/northwest behind the front on Monday.
Temperatures are forecast to be slightly above normal for this time of year ahead of the front, with temperatures becoming more seasonable behind the front.

MARINE
Issued at 259 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Today-Tonight... High pressure across the western Atlantic will continue to slowly shift southward today as a frontal boundary shifts southward across the Deep South towards the Florida peninsula. South to southwest winds at 10-15 KT away from the coast, increasing to 15-20 KT well offshore north of Sebastian Inlet tonight. Small Craft should exercise caution in the offshore waters of Brevard and Volusia tonight. Seas 2-4 ft. Persistent long period swells (~11-13 sec) continue and small craft may need to Exercise Caution for one more day near inlets during the outgoing tide. Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon mainly north of Cape Canaveral, with isolated to scattered showers from Cape Canaveral northward tonight.

Thursday-Sunday... A frontal boundary will push southward across north Florida and adjacent waters on Thursday, stalling and becoming diffuse across central Florida through Saturday. The next cold front will begin to approach the Florida peninsula during the day on Sunday from the west. Models are in disagreement with exact timing of the front. But for now have trended with the faster solution which pushes the front through Sunday night into Monday morning.
There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of showers across the local waters Thursday through Saturday with the stalled front across the local waters. Rain chances increase on Sunday ahead of the front to 30-60 percent, and 50-70 percent on Sunday night with the frontal passage.

Breezy NW winds of 10-18 KT Thursday morning will becoming more N/NW and decrease to 8-12 KT in the afternoon. Winds then shift NE/E around 10 KT on Friday before continuing to veer E/SE and increasing to 8-12KT on Saturday (veering more SSE/S and increasing to around 15 KT Saturday night). On Sunday, winds veer S/SSW and increase to 15-20 KT in the nearshore, and 20-25 KT in the offshore waters. Seas 3-5 ft will subside to 2-4 ft Thursday afternoon and continue through Saturday. Seas then begin to build on Sunday, increasing to 3-5 ft by the afternoon, and up to 6 feet in the far offshore waters Sunday night.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 656 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions at all ECFL terminals through 06Z, then stratus ahead of an approaching weak front begins to overrun much of the area late tonight and lingering into the afternoon. Confidence is increasing for prolonged IFR (50-70% chance) to LIFR (30-50% chance) CIGS at all northern terminals, arriving at KLEE first as early as 06Z, and reaching KMCO around 09Z. Chances are also increasing for MVFR (30-70%) to IFR (20-50%) CIGs to spread into the southern half of the area after 10Z. VIS should remain MVFR or better, but could tank if CIGs drop to LIFR. Impacts are likely to persist into mid to late morning, with gradual improvement through the early afternoon. Decent model agreement LIFR-IFR CIGs lift between 13Z-15Z, and MVFR conditions persist through 18Z.
Westerly winds 6 kts or less tonight generally shift northwest 5-10 kts in the late morning then northerly later in the afternoon, but could ultimately become more VRB as the weak front stalls over or just north of the area. ISO SHRA possible INVOF the northern terminals in the late afternoon and evening.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 259 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Southwest to west winds prevail today, generally around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. The airmass remains mostly dry, with near critical Min RH values forecast this afternoon. Min RH values are forecast to fall to around 35-40% across the interior today. Moisture increases on Thursday with no min RH value concerns.
As a weak frontal boundary stalls across the local area on Friday, some drier air starts to filter in to ECFL, dropping min RH values to 40-50%. Winds veer onshore (E/SE) on Saturday with speeds a round 8-12 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. Smoke dispersion will become Very Good to Excellent today, Fair to Generally Good on Thursday and Friday, and Fair to generally good on Saturday. Patchy dense fog is forecast late tonight into early Thursday morning and once again Thursday night into Friday morning, mainly across the interior and to I-95 in Brevard and Volusia Counties. Sensitive fire weather conditions will continue into late week and the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 55 70 53 72 / 10 20 10 20 MCO 57 76 56 76 / 0 30 10 20 MLB 53 73 55 73 / 0 30 20 30 VRB 52 75 55 75 / 0 20 20 30 LEE 56 75 53 75 / 10 30 10 20 SFB 57 75 54 75 / 10 30 10 20 ORL 58 75 56 76 / 0 30 10 20 FPR 51 76 54 75 / 0 20 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.