Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Loughman, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:57PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 8:45 AM EDT (12:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 8:47AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 515 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming west around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Isolated Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Isolated Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the morning. Isolated Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 515 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis.. Southwest flow 10 to 15 knots today ahead of a frontal boundary near the panhandle with showers and Thunderstorms affecting northern and central waters. Flow gradually shifts/weakens to northerly 5 to 10 knots Thursday into Friday before shifting/increasing to southeast 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts during weekend. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet or less through Friday increasing to near cautionary levels during the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Loughman, FL
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location: 28.22, -81.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 161122
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
722 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Aviation
Brief MVFR CIGS will be possible at kpgd, kfmy, and krsw for the next
few hours, thenVFR conditions are expected. Winds will become
southwest through the day, with some gusts to 20 knots or so. A few
showers will be possible starting this afternoon and continuing
into the first part of tonight.

Prev discussion issued 515 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
discussion...

westerly flow aloft continues across the region between a
deepening mid upper-level trough moving across the great lakes
and mid upper-level ridge axis stretching west to east across the
gulf of mexico south of the peninsula. At the surface,
south southeast flow is in place under the influence of weakening
high pressure ridging extending over the area from the western
atlantic. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary north of the area
stretches west from the atlantic across parts of the panhandle
into ms la.

Flow aloft will gradually strengthen today as the trough passes to
the north, while surface flow veers and increases out the southwest
south of the frontal boundary. Widespread cloudiness associated with
the front will continue to overspread much of the forecast area
throughout the day with showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting
northern central coastal waters and the nature coast early before
moving south into central and southern sections while diminishing in
coverage over the course of the afternoon and evening hours as the
front slowly sags south into peninsula.

Surface flow will veer to northerly behind the boundary Thursday
into Friday allowing a short-lived intrusion of cooler and drier air
into the area. Flow will begin transitioning back to southeast
during the day Friday as high pressure builds to the northeast and
an area of low pressure develops over the western central gulf in
response to shortwave energy moving across the southeast. Guidance
has come into a bit better agreement in tracking the system
northeast toward the central gulf coast Friday into Saturday with
a plume of tropical moisture likely spreading northeast on its
eastern flank. The eastern extent of both the eventual track and
moisture shield will determine local impacts for the weekend,
which for now remain increased likelihoods of cloudy conditions
and showers and storms Saturday into Sunday.

High pressure looks to build across the peninsula early next week
south of the remnant boundary across the southeast with lingering
moisture likely leading isolated showers before another mid upper-
level trough digs southeast across the central plains and drives
another frontal system into the region.

Aviation...

vfr conditions expected across terminals throughout period except
MVFR CIGS possible through around 13z at kpgd, kfmy and krsw.

Light southeast flow becoming southwest by 09z at northern
sites 14z at southern sites, increasing to 10 to 14 knots by
16-17z... With gusts 18 to 22 knots at northern sites... Decreasing
to 5 knots or less after 02z. Vcsh likely after 16z for northern
sites before diminishing between 00-03z. Otherwise, no significant
impacts expected.

Marine...

southwest flow increasing 10 to 15 knots today ahead of a frontal
boundary near the panhandle with showers and thunderstorms
affecting much of the northern and central waters. Flow gradually
shifts weakens to northerly 5 to 10 knots Thursday into Friday
before shifting increasing to southeast 10 to 15 knots with higher
gusts during weekend. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet or less through
Friday increasing to near cautionary levels during the weekend.

Fire weather...

combination of high pressure to the east and a frontal boundary
over the panhandle will lead to increasing southwest flow today
with showers and a few thunderstorms across mainly northern and
central locations. Northerly flow behind the front Thursday into
Friday will allow drier air to filter into region... With lowest rh
values across parts of the nature coast... But remaining above
critical thresholds. Southeast flow returns for the weekend with
increasing rain chances keeping rh values well above critical
thresholds for the remainder of the period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 87 74 84 68 40 30 10 10
fmy 88 75 88 72 10 40 30 10
gif 89 73 87 67 30 10 20 10
srq 88 75 87 70 20 30 20 10
bkv 88 69 84 63 60 20 10 10
spg 88 75 85 70 40 30 10 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Aviation... 05 carlisle
previous discussion... Hurt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYF1 49 mi51 min 85°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 49 mi51 min S 7 G 8
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 49 mi51 min SE 6 G 8

Wind History for TPA Cruise Terminal 2, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL9 mi49 minSSW 310.00 miFair72°F71°F100%1014.2 hPa
Winter Havens Gilbert Airport, FL14 mi52 minSSW 610.00 miFair74°F70°F88%1014.1 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL20 mi52 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F70°F90%1013.7 hPa
Bartow Municipal, FL22 mi55 minVar 410.00 miA Few Clouds72°F69°F94%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISM

Wind History from ISM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S43S6E4S8E8S4E6E8E10SE6------------------S3SW3
1 day ago--Calm3CalmNE8NE8E104E6E6E9E9E7SE3----------------CalmCalm
2 days ago--E5SE7Calm3CalmCalmSE6SE6SE6E6E8E6E5--------------------

Tide / Current Tables for CSX Rockport, Mckay Bay Entrance, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Davis Island, Hillsborough Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.