Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 10:32 AM   Moonset 12:05 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 1022 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
This afternoon - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest late. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1022 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis -
pressure gradient tightens today allowing for increased se winds that will turn onshore as the sea breeze develops. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will move into northern waters beginning tonight with another round likely tomorrow into Wednesday. Increased winds will also support increased wave heights. Unfavorable marine conditions will likely last until the end of the week.

FXUS62 KTBW 131415 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1015 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1014 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Two separate areas of convective activity still appear to be a possibility later today with sea breeze convection expected to form by late afternoon and evening across the interior and a potential MCS approaching the region from the Gulf coast states.
Regarding the sea breeze activity, PoPs are in the 45%-60% for interior areas as the sea breeze spreads inland and collides with the east coast sea breeze with westerly winds aloft helping to keep this activity a bit closer towards the eastern half of the peninsula. However, any deeper convection that does develop within our CWA will have the potential of localized torrential downpours, gusty winds, lightning, and hail. Meanwhile, hi-res guidance continues to struggle with how the MCS that is currently across the Gulf coast states will eventually track as it moves to the ESE across the northern Gulf waters and nearby southeastern states along a baroclinic zone. Latest trends suggest that this complex should be on a gradual weakening trend by the time it approaches the Nature Coast by this evening but there should be enough instability in the offshore Gulf waters to sustain this feature for as it approaches our coastline. Thus, can't rule out a damaging wind, hail, and isolated tornado and/or waterspout threat for portions of the Nature Coast with this activity depending on how convection evolves so latest trends will continued to be monitored throughout the day.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The work week will start out quite a bit more humid compared to yesterday as deeper moisture returns. As the high pressure moves further over the Atlantic the flow becomes more S/SE and winds increase as the gradient tightens. Rain chances also increase tomorrow as the sea breezes collide along the interior. Some storms developing along these boundaries could become severe as extra energy provided by mid-level impulses move over the area, supporting elevated CAPE values and effective bulk shear. With all these ingredients coming together, Storm prediction Center has placed portions of our CWA in a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon. Main concern will be along the nature coast and the interior where sea breeze collisions are expected. Main threat will be for hail, damaging wind gusts and a possible tornado.

Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough moves east scraping across northern portions of the peninsula. A surface low with accompanying this short wave is expected to move over the area bringing another round of showers and storms. SPC has also marked areas mainly north of I4 as a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, Tuesday and portions of Levy county and areas northward, Wednesday.

Conditions begin to dry out Thursday into Friday as ridging tries to build back over the area. Temperatures remain on the above average side, with highs in the low to mid 90s more most areas.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 811 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail throughout the period with winds out of the SSE this morning and shifting to onshore this afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop by late afternoon and evening with mainly impacts to interior areas and away from terminals but have added VCTS to KLAL as brief restrictions will be possible. Some guidance also suggests that a line of storms may approach the Tampa Bay area terminals this evening but there is a lot of uncertainty on whether or not this activity holds together.

MARINE
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Pressure gradient tightens today allowing for increased SE winds that will turn onshore as the sea breeze develops. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into northern waters beginning tonight with another round likely tomorrow into Wednesday.
Increased winds will also support increased wave heights.
Unfavorable marine conditions will likely last until the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

No major fire weather concerns through the week as RH values remain above critical levels. Shower and thunderstorms are expected to move over portions of the CWA beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 78 90 79 / 30 30 30 40 FMY 95 77 94 79 / 20 10 10 10 GIF 93 74 95 76 / 50 30 40 30 SRQ 93 77 91 77 / 20 10 20 30 BKV 94 70 93 73 / 40 30 50 50 SPG 90 80 89 80 / 20 20 30 40

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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New Port Richey
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Mon -- 12:03 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:46 AM EDT     1.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:47 PM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Port Richey, Pithlachascotee River, Florida, Tide feet

North Anclote Key
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Mon -- 01:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:06 AM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:19 AM EDT     1.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:50 PM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:32 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Anclote Key, Florida, Tide feet

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