Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Patrick AFB, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:56PM Saturday January 23, 2021 3:23 AM EST (08:23 UTC) Moonrise 1:40PMMoonset 2:44AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 1003 Pm Est Fri Jan 22 2021
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 1003 Pm Est Fri Jan 22 2021
Synopsis..A weak cool front will sag slowly across the local atlantic waters through Saturday. Winds will shift onshore behind the front Saturday evening into Sunday, leading to deteriorating boating conditions, as seas build through early next week. Winds will veer offshore by midweek, improving sea conditions.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Wednesday, january 20th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Patrick AFB, FL
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location: 28.25, -80.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 230722 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 223 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

DISCUSSION.

Current . Weak high pressure continues well southward this morning over the Florida Straits. A weak, quasi-stationary, frontal boundary lies just north of Volusia/Lake counties with low visibilities, low cloud ceilings, and some light rain associated with it. Winds remain light SW/W out ahead of this feature with more of a northerly component behind it. Temperatures remain rather mild in the 50s to L60s across ECFL. The forecast challenge this morning will be if any patchy fog develops and coverage for light rain/sprinkles.

Today-Tonight . The forecast will be a bit complicated and messy over the next 24 hours with low confidence. The aforementioned weak, west-east oriented, frontal boundary to the north will continue to settle slowly southward during the day through the central peninsula. Its position remains parallel to the mainly zonal flow, so it does not have much to push it through the area too quickly. In association with it, there could be some patchy fog into this morning (especially interior), lower gray clouds that will hang on into tonight, and perhaps a sprinkle or brief light shower (20pct). Most areas will remain dry and where precip does fall, it will not be much. It will be a rather gray and overcast day for many.

Morning westerly winds will gradually veer (from south to north across ECFL) to the north and NNE-NE thru this afternoon. The pressure gradient may allow for speeds to average 6-12 mph. Highs will approach the M-U60s north of I-4 with some L70s across I-4 and along the Brevard/Treasure coasts, with some M70s possible over the interior generally south of the Orlando Metro and inland from the Space/Treasure coasts.

Enough low-level convergence, proximity to the boundary and moisture will be present into tonight to allow for additional sprinkles or a light showers (up to around 20pct). Again, there will be the threat late overnight into early Sun morning for some patchy fog and/or low stratus clouds to develop, though confidence on exactly where or to what degree remains low. Lows generally in the 50s, but there could be some L60s along the south Brevard/Treasure coasts.

Sunday-Monday . High pressure over the coastal NC will drift southeast over the open Atlantic, the center nearly parallel to east central FL. The remnant moisture band from the leftover cold front will wrap around the high, keeping PW of 1.20-1.40" lingering along the entire Southeast coast. This will leave at least 20% PoPs on Sunday (30% over the waters) with onshore flow veering southeasterly and the potential for showers pressing over the immediate coast towards I-95 and the Saint Johns basin. By late Monday, the high drifts farther from the area, pulling the trapped moisture band with it which finally scours PoPs from the forecast in the evening. As mentioned, east winds will veer southeast then south Mon, increasing slightly as the sfc high nears the FL coast before pulling away late in the day.

Extensive cloud cover on Sunday will limit highs in the 70s, but developing southerly flow Monday sends afternoon temps to the upper 70s to lower 80s. Mins remain well above normal in the low 60s.

Tuesday-Friday . Zonal flow will transition to ridging aloft, with a surface high sitting just off the east central FL coastline. This positioning will maintain deep southwest flow on Tuesday and Wednesday, which will notably raise afternoon highs into the low to mid 80s, nearly 15 degrees above normal for late January. This mainly due to a lack of cooler air from strong cold fronts, which should transition mid to late week. Models indicate a deep trough will quickly eject from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, sending a cold front across the South to the doorstep of Florida. As of now, the two global models in good agreement with the front's arrival early Thursday, with both weakening/washing out as it moves through the area. Keeping similar PoPs on Wednesday as previously forecast, at 20-30% for areas north of Orlando/Cape Canaveral, introducing a slight chance of showers Thursday to align with the slower trend of the front's passage. Winds will veer northeasterly on Thursday increasing to 15-20 mph with a tightening pressure gradient. Breezy conditions will last through Friday but shift more onshore as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic. Above normal temperatures will return to near normal, with highs Thu dropping to the low to mid 70s, declining further on Friday to the mid to upper 60s. Similarly, mid week lows in the 60s will fall to the 40s/50s by week's end.

AVIATION. Weak, but complicated, slow moving boundary will press southward across ECFL today into tonight. There will be no clear airmass change as it moves through. Therefore, patchy fog, low stratus clouds and light rain/sprinkles (20pct) will remain in play for the next 24 hours. Forecast confidence is low. There will be periods of MVFR/IFR, potentially LIFR, especially during the overnight/morning hours. Light morning westerly winds will veer to N/NNE/NE thru the day and into tonight surrounding boundary passage. Wind speeds may approach 6-12 kts this afternoon, becoming light again this evening/overnight.

MARINE. Today-Tonight . WSW/SW winds averaging around 10 kts early this morning will veer to NW/N this morning and eventually NNE-NE into this afternoon and tonight. All of this as a weak boundary slowly sags southward across the local waters. There will not be an airmass change behind the boundary so expect sprinkles, light rain, gray clouds, perhaps some periods of poor visibility associated over the next 24 hours. Later this afternoon and into tonight wind speeds offshore/Gulf Stream will begin to increase to 15-19 kts. Seas currently 1-2 ft near shore and 2-3 ft offshore will build to 3-5 ft near shore and 5-6 ft well offshore/north of Ft. Pierce by daybreak Sun morning. Cautionary Statements for small craft will be necessary this evening/overnight for offshore marine legs.

Sunday-Monday . High pressure shifting over the open Atlantic from the Carolina coast will veer easterly winds to the southeast late Sunday then south by Monday afternoon, increasing from 10-15 knots to 15-20 knots during this time. Seas hold steady at 4-5 ft nearshore and up to 6 ft in the offshore waters north of the Cape.

Tuesday-Wednesday . As the surface high drifts away from the local area, winds will veer offshore Tuesday, diminishing to less than 10 knots with seas improving to 2-3 ft. Another strong cold front is expected to cross the local waters later this week, bringing the return of hazardous marine conditions beyond Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER. Higher relative humidity values today surrounding weak frontal boundary passing through the area. There could be some patchy fog and lower cloud ceilings this morning and again overnight into Sun morning. Fog could mix with smoldering brushfires and create locally dense fog in those areas. Dispersions will be relatively poor today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 66 60 71 60 / 20 20 30 10 MCO 72 59 75 62 / 20 20 10 10 MLB 72 61 75 63 / 20 20 20 10 VRB 73 61 77 63 / 10 20 20 20 LEE 69 55 74 61 / 20 20 10 0 SFB 69 59 74 62 / 20 20 20 10 ORL 71 60 76 63 / 20 20 10 10 FPR 75 60 77 63 / 10 20 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . Sedlock LONG TERM . Smith AVIATION . Sedlock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 11 mi28 min 66°F1 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 11 mi54 min SW 5.1 G 7 64°F 64°F1017 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 28 mi34 min W 9.7 G 9.7 69°F 73°F2 ft1015.4 hPa64°F
SIPF1 28 mi39 min 62°F 61°F1017 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 99 mi66 min SSE 5.1 G 6

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melbourne International Airport, FL10 mi31 minWSW 310.00 miFair58°F57°F97%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCOF

Wind History from COF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE8NE6N6N6N4N4CalmN3N4N6NW7N6NW3NW3NW7NW4NW6NW6NW7NW6N6NE6E5
1 day agoE7E6E4NE3E3E3CalmW3W6W5W6NW7NW7NW9NW8NW7N7N8N8N7N8NE9N10NE8
2 days agoCalmSE3W9W9W6SW4SW4SW5SW6W5W5NW5NW6NW7W7NW8NW7NW11NW8NW10NW9NW8N4NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:44 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:28 AM EST     2.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:38 AM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:22 PM EST     2.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:54 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.322.52.82.82.52.11.510.70.70.91.41.92.42.72.72.31.81.20.60.200.2

Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
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Canova Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:44 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:39 AM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:33 PM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:06 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.92.42.82.82.62.11.61.10.80.70.91.31.82.32.62.62.41.91.30.70.200.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.