Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Patrick AFB, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:29PM Sunday December 15, 2019 7:11 PM EST (00:11 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 10:12AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 247 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 247 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to slide northeast over the atlantic through mid week. Winds will become east-southeast tonight and then southeast on Monday. Winds veer to southwest on Tuesday ahead of the the next strong cold front, which will push across central florida late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, bringing poor to hazardous boating conditions to the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, december 14th. 44 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Patrick AFB, FL
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location: 28.25, -80.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 151933 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 233 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

DISCUSSION.

Tonight . Winds will veer ESE/SE this evening and tonight as the surface high pressure continues to scoot eastward. Clear skies and winds becoming light should allow temperatures to drop pretty quickly after sunset. However, the marine influence will modify the airmass somewhat by bringing dewpoints upward to keep overnight lows warmer than this morning. This should put most in the mid to upper 50s except the Brevard and Treasure Coasts, where stronger onshore winds are expected to keep temps in the lower 60s.

Monday . Forecast soundings across east central Florida are still showing very dry air and subsidence aloft giving us plenty of sunshine to start out the day. Southeasterly winds in the lower levels will then start to bring in some higher moisture allowing some diurnal cumulus to develop by late morning into the afternoon. Models are hinting as slightly deeper moisture south of Ft. Pierce, so more cloud cover is expected across this area and even some isolated low-topped showers in the afternoon. It will be warmer as well with highs around 80 at the coast and low 80s inland.

Mon night/Tue . (edited from previous) A large upper trough will develop across the eastern CONUS and both GFS and ECMWF models push another strong cold front into Florida Tue overnight into early Wed. 12z model runs have slowed frontal timing down a bit. We will remain in the warm sector on Tue with above normal temps in the low to mid 80s which will approach record highs in a few spots. With slower frontal timing, have nudged overnight lows for Tue night into Wed and Wed daytime highs up a bit. Additional moisture will be drawn northward ahead of the front on Tue which will modify the dry mid level airmass esp southern sections. Expect boundary collisions to support scattered showers and isolated storms in the aftn with showery precip continuing Tue night into Wed as the front pushes across the area. Severe weather is not anticipated.

Previous extended forecast discussion follows .

Wed-Thu . Turning noticeably cooler behind the front with highs struggling to reach 60F across Lake/Volusia counties Wed warming near 70 across the far south. High pressure behind the front will quickly translate east onto the Atlc allowing for a quick return of onshore flow and moderating temps. The coldest morning looks to be Thu with low to mid 40s Volusia and the interior counties and low to mid 50s Brevard-Martin counties.

Fri-Sat . Both GFS and ECMWF show a progressive upper pattern with an upper ridge over the western US forcing a downstream trough over the eastern US. The operational GFS is very aggressive showing a cut-off upper low developing over and to the east of FL while the operational ECMWF has backed off on this solution, now showing a progressive upper trough pushing across the area. Although details are quite different, we should expect another frontal passage during this time frame with at least scattered showers.

AVIATION.

VFR conditions prevailing.

MARINE.

Tonight-Monday . Winds veer overnight tonight to ESE/SE and increase to 10-15 knots north of Cape Canaveral and around 15 knots to the south. Seas are forecast to build slightly to 4-5 ft offshore and 3- 4 ft nearshore. Southeasterly winds are forecast to slacken slightly on Monday to around 10-15 knots across the waters with seas still remaining in the 3-5 ft range nearshore and 4-5 ft offshore.

Mon night-Tue . High pressure will push eastward ahead of next cold front. Winds will veer SE-S near 15kt Mon night then S-SSW 10-15kt near shore/15kt offshore Tue. Seas generally 3-5 ft.

Wed-Thu . (previous)A cold front is forecast to push across the local Atlc waters Tue night/early Wed followed by an increase in N/NW winds 20-25 knots over the open Atlc. Seas will build quickly to 7-8 feet in the Gulf Stream Wed and then up to 10 feet Wed night as winds veer N/NE and directly oppose the Gulf stream. Winds veer NE Thu with a very gradual decrease in wind speeds and seas. So a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for much of the waters this period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 55 80 64 81 / 0 0 10 40 MCO 58 82 65 83 / 0 0 10 50 MLB 63 81 69 84 / 0 10 20 50 VRB 63 81 68 84 / 0 10 20 60 LEE 57 82 64 82 / 0 0 10 40 SFB 56 82 64 83 / 0 0 10 40 ORL 59 82 65 83 / 0 0 10 50 FPR 61 81 68 84 / 0 20 20 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . Combs LONG TERM . Glitto AVIATION . Combs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 11 mi42 min 73°F2 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 11 mi54 min N 1.9 G 2.9 64°F 72°F1022.5 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 28 mi42 min E 9.7 G 14 74°F 77°F1021.6 hPa57°F
SIPF1 28 mi57 min E 7 73°F 72°F1022 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 99 mi60 min NE 1.9 G 2.9

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL1 mi76 minNNE 710.00 miFair69°F65°F89%1021.1 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL10 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair68°F62°F81%1021.3 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL15 mi16 minN 010.00 miFair64°F60°F87%1021.3 hPa
Titusville, FL21 mi25 minVar 47.00 miFair66°F62°F88%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCOF

Wind History from COF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----NW9NW10NW11NW14NW12NW10NW10N10N9N6N4NW4NW6NW6N4NE5N8NE8NE8NE9N7E5
1 day agoSW5S6SW6SW6SW8SW10SW11SW9SW12SW13SW13SW16
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SW7W6W7W9W14W12W10W14--NW11
2 days agoE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:19 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:37 AM EST     4.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:54 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:47 PM EST     3.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.10.3-0.1-00.61.52.63.54.14.23.832.11.20.60.40.71.42.33.13.73.93.5

Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
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Canova Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:31 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:48 AM EST     4.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:06 PM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:58 PM EST     3.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.20.4-0.1-0.10.41.32.43.344.13.83.12.21.30.70.40.61.22.12.93.63.83.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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