NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 746 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots late this evening and early morning, then becoming north 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots late. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms early this evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late this evening.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters rough.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters rough.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. A slight chance of showers.
Friday..Northeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 746 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
the rain will taper off tonight as high pressure and drier air builds in from the north. Gusty nw winds and building seas are expected tonight in the wake of the cold front with small craft advisory conditions expected through Monday afternoon. Winds then shift to the northeast through the remainder of the week and will be near or exceeding small craft advisory levels as a tight pressure gradient sets up, which will make for a prolonged stretch of unpleasant boating conditions.

FXUS62 KTBW 110044 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 744 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE

UPDATE
Issued at 744 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Current satellite and radar imagery are showing the weakening line of showers ahead of the cold front pushing over Central and SW Florida. Additional periods of rain are expected before midnight, then rain-free conditions are expected as high pressure and drier air builds in from the north in the wake of the cold front. As a result, overnight to early morning temperatures will start on the cooler side. Monday morning lows are forecast in the 40s north, lower 50s central, and mid to low 50s south. Highs are forecast to range from the lower 60s north to around 70 south. Overall, the rest of the forecast looks on track, only change this evening update was a few adjustments to the current PoPs to match with actual conditions.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A strong cold front and associated QLCS will continue to push across the area through this evening. The main concern with this activity remains damaging winds and embedded tornadic circulations given the increasing low level wind fields, pockets of enhances SRH, and lowering LCL heights as a shortwave trough swings through. This activity will then weaken and push out of the area by mid to late evening as drier air quickly advects in from the north with high pressure building across the lower Mississippi Valley overnight.
Cold air advection associated with the northerly low level flow will yield a rather chilly Monday with highs mainly in the 60s, which will be about 10-15 degrees below climatological norms for this time of the year. Gradual air mass modification then occurs for the remainder of the week as high pressure establishes north of the area and sets up a persistent easterly flow regime. Rain chances will also gradually increase from mid to late week as moisture begins to increase from south to north as the aforementioned frontal boundary begins to lift back northward across the FL peninsula. While confidence is increasing somewhat in the potential for a more unsettled pattern by late week, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty between the GFS and ECMWF on the timing and track of a surface low that is expected to develop near the southern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS continues to be quickest with developing a surface low and lifting it NNE across the FL peninsula but the ECMWF is further south with the initial development of the low and delayed as it doesn't seem to show much in the way of this feature until the weekend. Regardless of the exact track of this system, there are some signals that at least some drought relief could be on the way but it's too early to discuss specific QPF amounts of where the greatest rainfall chances will occur. This pattern will also set up a rather tight pressure gradient across the region with easterly wind speeds generally increasing each day through late week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Light rain activity continues across most TAF sites for the next hours, with main activity now pushing over SW FL sites. The line of storms continue to weakening while moving across Central FL and SW FL. In the wake of the cold front, MVFR CIGs are expected to spread across the region this overnight period accompanied with NW gusty conditions. VFR conditions then return to the area tomorrow morning and continue through the remainder of the period with breezy N winds and period of higher gusts during the day.



MARINE
Issued at 707 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

The rain will taper off tonight as high pressure and drier air builds in from the north. Gusty NW winds and building seas are expected tonight in the wake of the cold front with small craft advisory conditions expected through Monday afternoon. Winds then shift to the northeast through the remainder of the week and will be near or exceeding small craft advisory levels as a tight pressure gradient sets up, which will make for a prolonged stretch of unpleasant boating conditions.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 231 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A strong line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area through this evening. A few severe storms could occur with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes being the main threat. Much drier and cooler air builds in on Monday in the wake of the a cold front, which may allow minimum RH values to approach critical levels mainly south and east of Tampa Bay but red flag conditions are not anticipated at this time. Winds then shift to the northeast by mid to late week and becoming increasingly breezier but this will help bring Atlantic moisture into the area and higher humidity values for much of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 51 65 48 72 / 50 0 0 0 FMY 58 70 52 76 / 50 0 0 0 GIF 49 64 47 73 / 70 0 0 0 SRQ 53 66 48 75 / 50 0 0 0 BKV 44 63 41 72 / 60 0 0 0 SPG 54 63 52 70 / 50 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Hwy. 19 bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:09 AM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:09 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:41 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:50 PM EST     1.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:00 PM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hwy. 19 bridge, Pithlachascotee River, Florida, Tide feet

Hudson
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:18 AM EST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:45 AM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:41 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:03 PM EST     1.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:35 PM EST     2.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hudson, Florida, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Tampa Bay Area, FL,