Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 8:21 AM   Moonset 11:08 PM

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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 334 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Today - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast this afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: north 2 feet at 4 seconds and south 1 foot at 3 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this morning. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 7 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 12 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Sunday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 6 seconds and east 1 foot at 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Sunday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon and evening, becoming south after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 5 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 9 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 6 seconds and south 2 feet at 3 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 110157 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 957 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE

UPDATE
Issued at 955 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Conditions are relatively calm but also muggy out there with temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s and low 70s. Mid level drying is evident from this evening's 23z XMR sounding but this dry layer could be eroded some over the next several hours.
An approaching cold front, stretched across the Florida Panhandle, is working its way south. In advance of the front, PW values around 1.6-1.7" are present. RAP analysis indicates some deeper moisture convergence over the FL Big Bend/Nature Coast region, just ahead of an ongoing area of storms west of Steinhatchee. Hi- res guidance, like recent runs of the HRRR/RAP/NAM3km have indicated some level of persistence to this convection as it pushes toward central Florida later tonight. The threat of isolated showers and storms remains highly conditional and not everyone is guaranteed to see rain. However, there appears to be enough model support for at least 20-30 PoP from the Orlando metro area northward. If storms are maintained or further materialize, the parameter space over north-central Florida appears marginally supportive of strong to locally damaging wind gusts, small hail, and even a tornado or waterspout that cannot be completely ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk for severe storms from the Melbourne to Kissimmee areas northward overnight.

Showers and a few rumbles of thunder may persist as the front marches south through mid morning on Saturday, though an overall gradual dissipation of convection is expected. Temperatures by morning look to start out in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 955 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR continue with a conditional threat of isolated SHRA/TSRA after 04z-05z from LEE to MCO to TIX/MLB. For now, VCSH is handling this potential but AMDs or even TEMPOs may be needed for VCTS/TSRA across northern terminals thru 09z. If this activity materializes, it is expected to weaken on approach to Treasure Coast sites after 10z. Brief CIG/VIS reductions to IFR are possible INVOF TSRA.

Otherwise, a FROPA is expected thru 12z, perhaps with the front stalling near SUA thru early afternoon Sat. Behind the front, winds will gradually veer WNW, increasing to 10-15 kt by the afternoon. Winds along the coast become ENE as the east coast sea breeze develops and meanders west after 18-21z.

MARINE
Issued at 955 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

SW winds become westerly overnight as a cold front approaches and crosses the local waters through daybreak Saturday. An isolated shower or lightning storm may occur over inland waterways and perhaps over the nearshore waters late tonight. Gusty winds and a waterspout cannot be entirely ruled out.

As any showers/storms dissipate toward daybreak, winds veer WNW Saturday morning and locally increase nearshore as the sea breeze develops in the afternoon. An isolated shower or storm is possible along the Treasure Coast Saturday. Otherwise, seas 2-3 ft nearshore and up to 4 ft offshore, except where locally higher in and around lightning storms.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Saturday-Monday (modified morning discussion)...Fire-sensitive to near- critical conditions at times this weekend away from the coastal corridor. WNW winds of 10-15 mph will deliver a punch of drier air down the peninsula Saturday, with only a 20-30% storm chance lingering for the Treasure Coast and Lake O region. Across the interior, RH minima will fall to around 30-40% on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. By Sunday, winds turn to the NE 5-15 mph, strongest along the coast where a sea breeze is forecast. Localized critical conditions are possible on Saturday afternoon, especially from Clermont to Okeechobee (the Kissimmee basin). Winds turn toward the southeast from 10-15 mph on Monday, locally gusting to 20 mph along the coast. This will carry an increase in moisture and a chance for afternoon showers and storms. Wetting rain chances increase, especially across the northern half of Central Florida, from late Monday through mid- week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 71 85 67 84 / 30 0 0 0 MCO 74 93 67 91 / 30 10 0 0 MLB 74 87 70 85 / 20 10 0 0 VRB 73 89 69 87 / 20 20 0 10 LEE 73 90 67 90 / 30 0 0 0 SFB 73 92 67 90 / 30 0 0 0 ORL 74 93 69 90 / 30 10 0 0 FPR 72 90 68 87 / 20 20 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Cocoa Beach, Florida, Tide feet

Canaveral Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 05:01 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:49 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:40 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:27 PM EDT     4.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida, Tide feet

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