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AMZ069 Atlantic From 27n To 29n W Of 77w- 343 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Tonight..NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in N to ne swell.
Fri..E to se winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in N to ne swell.
Fri night..E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..E to se winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..E to se winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Sun night..S to sw winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Mon..NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt W of 78w, and nw to N 15 to 20 kt E of 78w. Seas 6 to 9 ft in nw swell.
Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in nw to N swell.
Tue..NE to E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in N to ne swell.
Tue night..NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in ne swell.

AMZ005
No data

FXUS62 KMLB 071945 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 245 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION

Rest of Today-Tonight...Quiet end to a pleasant day. A steadfast land breeze boundary has been camped offshore from around Stuart northward, keeping most of the marine stratocu from moving inland, but some has leaked onshore south of the Cape, and also keeping winds northerly a little longer than expected. Northeasterly winds become light tonight, variable at times. Mostly dry conditions, but could see a sprinkle or light shower along the Treasure Coast.
Afternoon from the upper 60s to low 70s dip back down into the upper 40s up north to the low to mid 50s along the coast and near Lake Okeechobee.

Friday...Ridging aloft as a mid-upper level trough over the western U.S. shifts east into the central U.S. At the surface, Florida remains under the influence of high pressure over the western Atlantic, which will shift east as frontal system across the central U.S., associated with the mid-upper level trough, approaches. Easterly winds 5-10 mph gradually veer to southeasterly, but most of the moisture increase will be in the mid levels, increasing cloud cover but keeping rain chances limited. CAMs and other hi-res guidance in pretty good agreement for a few sprinkles or light showers getting swept up from the Atlantic in the easterly to southeasterly flow, though they were also showing the same today and so far that hasn't panned out.
Model soundings do show the marine layer becomes deep enough to support shallow convection, and as winds become more southeasterly and southerly late Friday night, could start to get stringers off the Bahamas. Very dry air and a strong cap H85-H7 will inhibit deep convection, so lightning remains out of the forecast. Warming back up, with afternoon highs pretty uniform in the mid to upper 70s across ECFL. Still on the cool side overnight, with lows in the low to mid 60s.

Saturday-Sunday (Modified Previous)...High pressure will remain settled over the western Atlantic Saturday. Moisture will increase through Sunday with PWATs in the 1.3-1.6" range on Saturday, then increasing to 1.5-1.8" Sunday. Isolated showers are forecast Saturday, mainly over the local Atlantic waters and near the coast.
Rain chances (PoPs ~ 40-60%) increase Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the eastern CONUS into Monday.
Onshore southeasterly winds will increase and veer south to southwesterly Sunday ahead of the front. Winds are forecast to gust up to 20-25mph Sunday afternoon, especially along the coast. Partly cloudy skies on Saturday with increasing cloud cover Sunday. High temperatures mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday.
Slightly warmer across the Treasure Coast counties Sunday, climbing into the mid 80s. Lows are generally range the low to upper 60s through the weekend.

Monday-Wednesday (Modified Previous)...Guidance (ECMWF/CMC/GFS)
is in good agreement that the aforementioned cold front will move southeast across central Florida into early Monday, before clearing the Treasure Coast by the late morning/early afternoon.
Scattered showers with isolated lightning storms are forecast early Monday morning with chances dwindling from north (PoPs ~40/50%) to south (PoPs ~ 50/60%) into the late morning hours.
West to southwest winds veer north into Monday afternoon, then northeasterly through Wednesday. Winds will be breezy, especially along the coast with gusts of 15-20mph each afternoon. Dry air will filter in behind the front Monday afternoon with PWATs dropping into the 0.25-0.50" range. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast over the local Atlantic, Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast Tuesday night. Moisture will further increase midweek with isolated to scattered showers returning across much of central Florida Wednesday. Highs in the low 60s to low 70s Monday rise into the 70s areawide Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE
Issued at 240 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Rest of Today-Friday...High pressure centered over AL-GA-NOFL shifts east, pushing offshore into the western Atlantic late tonight. N-NE winds 5-10 kts tonight continue to veer, becoming E-SE 10-15 kts Friday night. Seas up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream this evening subside to 5 ft tonight, and 4-5 ft Friday. Closer to shore, seas generally 3-4 ft. A few light showers possible Friday afternoon and evening.

Friday Night-Monday...(Modified Previous) High pressure will gradually slide east over the western Atlantic ahead of a cold front that will cross the local waters Sunday into Monday. Slight chance of showers Friday and Saturday, then increasing chances for showers and lightning storms, some of which could become strong, Sunday into Monday (PoPs ~50-70%) ahead of the front. East to southeasterly winds around 8-15kts increase 20-25kts offshore (20-60nm) Sunday, before veering north Monday at around 15-20kts.
Seas build to 3-4ft with up to 5ft in the Gulf Stream, then building to 3-5ft with up to 6-7ft in the Gulf Stream Monday.



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. NE-E winds 5-10 kts become light and variable tonight, then veer to E-SE and pick back up to 5-10 kts Friday. Mainly dry conditions, but a -SHRA INVOF VRB-SUA can't be ruled out tonight, as well as coastal terminals Friday afternoon, but not expecting any CIG reductions or significant VIS reductions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 49 73 61 79 / 0 20 10 20 MCO 53 75 63 80 / 0 20 10 10 MLB 55 76 66 80 / 10 20 10 20 VRB 55 77 66 82 / 10 20 20 20 LEE 51 75 60 80 / 0 10 10 10 SFB 52 75 62 80 / 0 20 10 10 ORL 54 76 63 81 / 0 20 10 10 FPR 53 77 66 81 / 10 20 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Cape Canaveral
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:59 AM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:07 AM EST     1.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:57 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:05 PM EST     3.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:30 PM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Canaveral, Florida, Tide feet

Cape Canaveral
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:59 AM EST     3.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:06 AM EST     1.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:57 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:06 PM EST     3.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:30 PM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Canaveral, Florida (2), Tide feet

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