Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Doctor Phillips, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:58PM Friday January 22, 2021 10:18 AM EST (15:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:07PMMoonset 1:55AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 951 Am Est Fri Jan 22 2021
This afternoon..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 951 Am Est Fri Jan 22 2021
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge will build over south florida and the bahamas through today. Resulting offshore wind flow will produce favorable conditions for small craft operation. A weak cool front will sag slowly across the local atlantic waters Saturday. Winds will shift onshore behind the front Saturday night and Sunday, leading to deteriorating boating conditions as seas build through early next week. Winds will veer offshore by midweek, improving sea conditions.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Wednesday, january 20th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Doctor Phillips, FL
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location: 28.42, -81.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 220747 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 246 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

DISCUSSION.

Current . Weak high pressure exists across the southern FL peninsula early this morning. A weak cold front lies across the Deep South/Gulf Coast States. Light southwest winds were observed across ECFL and temperatures generally mild in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Will continue to monitor for fog potential, though the local HRRR has backed off lower visibilities. Elevated winds above the surface would tend to suggest a greater chance of some low stratus clouds. Conditions remain dry.

Today-Tonight . High pressure will continue to weaken as it is forced across the southern peninsula and Florida Straits. The cold front to the north will become quasi-stationary at times as it crawls southward across north FL thru late today, then limps into the I-4 corridor late overnight/early Sat morning. Cloud cover today will be highest/thickest across the I-4 corridor thinning out further southward due to proximity to the slowly approaching boundary. A narrow band of PWATs from 1.50-1.70 inches will accompany the front. Greatest mid/upper level energy and instability will remain well north of ECFL for this system. We continue to keep PoPs absent from the forecast thru 00Z/7pm, but do add a 15-20pct chance later tonight, mainly north of I-4 for some light precip as the front ventures slowly south.

SW/WSW winds 6-12 mph will be forecast today across the area. Expect mild pre-frontal highs in the M70s across the I-4 corridor and generally U70s southward. Lows tonight mainly in the 50s and possibly L60s across the Orlando Metro where clouds (low stratus) will be more prominent and thicker. Have also added patchy fog mention (pre-frontal variety) across much of ECFL for late tonight as guidance suggests some lower visibilities overnight. The coverage of clouds is expected to increase late tonight from north to south over the area. One last thing to keep in mind is with many prescribed burns/brush fires recently, any mixing with fog could produce locally dense fog conditions resulting in poor visibilities.

Weekend . Enlongated ridge aloft stretching across Central America over the Caribbean will maintain zonal flow over the Gulf and FL peninsula through the weekend and into early next week. A very weak frontal boundary will dip south on Saturday, seemingly parallel to the flow, entering the forecast area as a pseudo-backdoor cold front. The gradient of moisture with this boundary is quite impressive, with a 1.00" variant in PW from south FL to the Gulf Coast. However, as it slides towards central FL, available moisture will decrease as the front washes out prior to reaching the area. Thus, PoPs on Saturday still remain rather limited around 20% for areas north of Melbourne. West winds will veer northeasterly by late Saturday evening, with marine showers pressing onshore north of the Cape through the overnight.

By Sunday, surface high pressure that was over the Appalachians drifts offshore of the Carolinas, wrapping the band of moisture from the front on the periphery which will keep a mention of showers over the Atlantic waters. With the center of the high east of the local area, onshore winds will veer southeast by late Sunday afternoon, which may allow for further push of showers over land areas, most likely along the immediate coast.

High temperatures this weekend will be limited by extensive cloud cover, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday, then climbing Sunday to the mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures will continue to run several degrees above normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Next Week . Similar to the weekend forecast, next week will be defined by zonal flow aloft, and a few approaching cold fronts which will yet again wash out prior to reaching the local area. The first arrives late Monday into Tuesday across northeast FL, sagging as it weakens to east central FL on Wednesday. Only signal from this passage will be a brief return of northerly winds midweek prior to the approach of another cold front. As of now, the front in the latter end of the week does appear to be more robust than the previous two, which may offer a better chance for showers Thursday and Friday.

Without the assistance of cooler air, and southwest flow early in the week, highs will quickly climb to the low to mid 80s Monday through Wednesday, with slightly lower values Thursday behind the front. Lows will also persist above normal, in the lower 60s.

AVIATION. Local guidance still not big on fog early this morning, though we may have some areas of low stratus around to watch out for, though this should burn off quickly. Otherwise, pre-frontal conditions with SW/WSW winds 6-12 kts becoming light again tonight. Generally VFR conditions today into this evening. A cold front to the north will slowly move into the I-4 corridor late overnight into early Sat morning. May need to start to hit TAFs within this area a little harder for lower forecast CIGs and/or lower VSBYs. These lower CIGs may stay around a while on Sat due to the weak front passing slowly across the area.

MARINE. Today-Tonight . Favorable boating conditions persist today. Initial WSW/SW winds, 6-12 kts near shore and 15-17 kts offshore, are forecast to become more light/variable later in the day north of Sebastian Inlet with the approach of a weak front. Winds will increase again later tonight to 10-15 kts over the open Atlc and veer to WNW/NW as the boundary moves closer. Seas 2-3 ft, perhaps up to 4 ft well offshore/north of the Cape.

Weekend . A weak cold front will pass over a portion of the local Atlantic waters on Saturday before washing out and absorbing into surface high pressure sliding south from the Carolinas. Northeast to east winds will increase over 15 knots by late Saturday, with seas of 2-4 ft building to 4-5 ft by midday Sunday.

Next Week . With the high drifting farther from the area and the approach of another cold front, winds will continue to veer south to southwest Monday and Tuesday, increasing to 15-20 knots. This will maintain seas of 4-5 ft through midweek, with winds and seas diminishing late Tuesday and Wednesday behind another weak frontal passage.

FIRE WEATHER. Confidence not high on patchy ground fog this morning, but there may be some low stratus clouds around early. However, any lingering smoke from recent smoldering burns could result in locally dense fog. A cold front will approach the I-4 corridor late tonight into early Sat morning and we may see another threat for low (stratus) clouds and patchy (locally dense) fog across ECFL.

Probability of ignition continues to climb, given the lack of significant rainfall over the past couple of months. Heavy and dead fuels will continue to dry through next week due to the lengthy dry conditions and given the forecast of minimal to nil rain chances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 74 59 68 58 / 10 20 20 20 MCO 77 61 71 60 / 10 10 20 10 MLB 77 57 72 62 / 0 0 20 10 VRB 77 55 74 63 / 0 0 10 10 LEE 74 60 69 57 / 10 20 20 10 SFB 76 60 70 59 / 10 10 20 20 ORL 77 62 71 60 / 10 10 20 10 FPR 77 54 75 62 / 0 0 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . Sedlock LONG TERM . Smith AVIATION . Sedlock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 48 mi48 min SW 8 G 13 64°F 63°F1018 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 60 mi60 min SSE 5.1 G 7

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL10 mi22 minW 910.00 miFair68°F56°F65%1018.1 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL10 mi25 minWSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds66°F56°F70%1017.6 hPa
Orlando Executive Airport, FL13 mi25 minWSW 810.00 miFair68°F57°F68%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCO

Wind History from MCO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5SW9W7SW12W11SW11W11SW8SW7SW8W8SW5SW5SW5SW4SW6SW6W3SW3SW5S6SW8W7SW9
1 day ago5N5N6NW7W6W5W6W3CalmN4NW8W3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmSW4W3W4SW4CalmNW4NW7
2 days agoNE8CalmE8CalmE53CalmE7NE6E4NE4NE5N4N4N4N6N3N3N4N3CalmCalmN4N4

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:51 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:28 AM EST     3.88 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:04 AM EST     3.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:55 PM EST     3.88 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:21 PM EST     3.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:36 PM EST     3.87 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.9

Tide / Current Tables for Trident Pier, Port Canaveral, Florida
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Trident Pier
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:50 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:38 AM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:50 AM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:40 PM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:47 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.6332.82.41.81.20.80.70.91.21.622.42.42.21.81.30.80.30.20.40.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.