Tuesday, October20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lacoochee, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 6:53PM Tuesday October 20, 2020 7:37 AM EDT (11:37 UTC) Moonrise 10:46AMMoonset 9:21PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 309 Am Edt Tue Oct 20 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 309 Am Edt Tue Oct 20 2020
Synopsis.. Interaction between a trough of low pressure south of florida and strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard will continue to produce gusty east-northeast winds over the gulf coast waters over the next couple of days. This has warranted the issuance of a small craft advisory for eastern gulf waters. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible through midweek, with decreasing chances by end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacoochee, FL
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location: 28.44, -82     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 200824 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 425 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020

DISCUSSION.

. Hazardous Boating Conditions and Numerous Strong Rip Currents Will Continue Into Late Week .

Current . The Strong high eastern CONUS/eastern Atlantic high pressure ridge has become a little more zonally (W-E) oriented this morning compared to the last few days. This has allowed persistent 20-25kt BLYR flow to veer more easterly compared to the past couple of days. KMLB 88D shows fast moving shower bands embedded in the brisk easterlies continuing to move onshore the Treasure Coast with passing heavy downpours/gusty winds accompanying the activity. Most of the activity seen farther north on radar earlier this morning has dissipated.

Multi-channel IR imagery shows a swath of overcast high clouds covering the entirety of the CWA, courtesy of divergent flow aloft associated with an upper level trough extending NW from central FL. 07Z/3AM temps were in the M70s inland and U70s over the coastal counties, where winds remain in the 15-20mph range.

Today-tonight . Stout onshore flow will continue for another 24h as the mid-upper trough over FL drifts very slowly NW-N. This will keep sufficiently deep moisture in place to produce scattered showers and a few storms, even though clouds and winds will limit the magnitude of diurnal instability. Potential remains for locally heavy downpours and gusty winds in passing showers, although steering winds near 25kt will limit overall rain amounts. Max temps M80s for most of the CWA with some any U80s (at best) well inland over Lake County. Mins in the L70s inland, M-U70s near the coast as moderate onshore flow fails to decouple along the coast for another night.

A High risk of rip currents continues at the central Florida Atlantic beaches.

Wednesday-Thursday . Mid level ridge that has anchored over the SE CONUS coast over the last several days will erode a bit, lifting northeastward away from the local area midweek, with a weak inverted trough shifting up the peninsula from the Caribbean on Wednesday. At the same time, the newly formed Tropical Storm Epsilon will drift to the northwest over the central Atlantic, with a strong surface high enlongated down the Northeastern/Mid-Atlantic coast. Locally, rain chances will remain in the chance to likely range through Thursday, as PWATs over 2.00" continue to pump westward from the northern Caribbean in deep onshore flow.

Most favorable setup of showers and isolated storms will persist over the Treasure Coast towards the Kissimmee River basin, however east winds of 10-15 mph should keep activity quick moving towards the interior. PoPs range from 60% across the south, tapering to 40- 50% for northern areas both Wednesday and Thursday. With not much change anticipated in the position of the sfc high, the pressure gradient will remain tight through midweek, keeping mention of breezy conditions especially at the coast. Extensive cloud cover should limit afternoon high temperatures to the mid 80s; conversely, acting as a blanket overnight with lows in the mid to upper 70s each night.

Friday-Tuesday . Keeping with the persistence forecasting trend through the weekend and into early next week, with no noteworthy signals in the long range to invoke much of a change to the forecast. Latest ECM run has backed off significantly in the development of a baroclinic low in the Gulf of Mexico, now just reflecting a moisture punch along the northern Gulf Coast later this week. As Epsilon rotates away from the US Coast towards Bermuda, the influence of the surface high in the eastern CONUS will begin to diminish, relaxing the pressure gradient over the local area and allowing winds to decrease below 10 mph. PoPs into early next week generally in the 30-40% range, although Monday could be a bit drier as the ridge axis builds back across the area. At the very end of the period (late Tuesday), global models picking up on a very strong cold front digging across the MS Valley, although confidence on exact impacts and scope of this front locally is still low. Until then, temperatures will remain above average, with highs in the mid/upper 80s, lows in the low/mid 70s.

AVIATION. East winds 13-15KT will gust into the 20-25kt range into this afternoon, especially over the DAB-SUA coastal corridor. Gusts to 30-35kt possible with IFR VSBYs in passing fast-moving showers, possibly an isolated TS as well.

MARINE. Today-tonight . Model Guidance indicates some slight re-tightening of the local pressure gradient, resulting enough of an increase in winds/seas for SCA conditions to return to the nearshore Volusia/ Brevard County legs. Winds near 20kt with seas 5-6ft near the coast and 7-8ft offshore.

Wednesday-Saturday . Combined effects from a tight pressure gradient across the area and swells arriving from Tropical Storm Epsilon will maintain hazardous conditions across the local Atlantic waters through most of the week. East winds 15-20 knots will relax a bit Friday, diminishing to 10-15 knots; however seas will persist at 7-9 ft through late this week. The Small Craft Advisory will continue through midweek, with extension likely through at least the weekend.

HYDROLOGY. The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Minor Flood Stage, just below Moderate Flood, this week. Elsewhere, the Saint Johns River at Sanford and above Lake Harney, is forecast to stay within Action Stage, while at DeLand the river is forecast to remain just below Action Stage. Refer to daily Flood Statements from NWS Melbourne for the latest river levels and forecasts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 85 74 83 74 / 40 30 50 40 MCO 85 74 83 73 / 40 30 50 30 MLB 85 75 84 76 / 50 40 60 50 VRB 86 75 83 76 / 50 50 60 50 LEE 86 73 84 72 / 40 20 50 30 SFB 85 74 83 73 / 40 30 50 30 ORL 85 75 84 75 / 40 30 50 30 FPR 84 74 83 75 / 50 60 60 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm- Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20- 60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.



SHORT TERM . Cristaldi LONG TERM . Smith AVIATION . Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EBEF1 42 mi55 min 76°F 82°F1014.6 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 42 mi79 min NNE 6 G 8.9
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 42 mi73 min NNE 8 G 11
SKCF1 43 mi73 min NNE 14 G 21
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 47 mi103 min ENE 9.9 G 12 76°F 1015.4 hPa

Wind History for TPA Cruise Terminal 2, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport, FL24 mi44 minNNE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F72°F94%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKV

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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W3S3NE6NE4N11NE9NE6NE5N5N7NE7NE3N4NE5NE4
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2 days agoN5NE7NE9N10NE9NE10NE8NE11NE8NE8NE9NE5NE11NE9NE9NE9NE8NE8NE7NE8NE8NE5NE9NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida
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Aripeka
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:02 AM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:24 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:59 PM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:49 PM EDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.53.23.43.332.41.81.10.50-0.2-0.10.41.222.62.82.72.31.91.51.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Bayport, Florida
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Bayport
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:36 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:37 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:33 PM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:02 PM EDT     1.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.333.43.53.32.82.11.40.70.1-0.2-0.20.10.81.72.42.82.82.62.21.81.51.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.