Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lacoochee, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:32PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 9:23 PM EST (02:23 UTC) Moonrise 4:36PMMoonset 5:28AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 826 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the evening. A chance of showers after midnight. Patchy sea fog after midnight. Areas of fog toward morning.
Wednesday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming northeast around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Areas of sea fog early in the morning. A chance of showers until late afternoon. A slight chance of showers late in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..Southeast winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Saturday..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming north around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 826 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis.. A cold front will move into the northern waters on Wednesday, and then into the central waters Wednesday night where it will stall out through Thursday. The potential exists tonight for sea fog, which may eventually extend south to the mouth of tampa bay. SEa fog may persist through Wednesday morning over the cooler northern shelf waters. As the front moves into the area increasing northeast winds and seas are expected, with a period of cautionary or near advisory level conditions possible Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, especially across the central and northern waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacoochee, FL
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location: 28.44, -82     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 102117 CCA AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 417 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

DISCUSSION.

. Areas of Dense Fog Possible Tonight .

. Hazardous Marine Conditions Develop By Wednesday Evening .

. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Wednesday night into Friday .

Rest of Today . High pressure ridge axis centered on the southern half of the FL peninsula has resulted in mostly south to southwest flow in central Florida today. This has allowed temps to skyrocket, with a record high set at Melbourne (86F, breaking old record of 85F last set in 2013), and a tie at Sanford (85F, last set in 2013). The sea breeze has developed from central Brevard south to Martin County, but the bigger southerly component to the winds has prevented significant inland progression. Overall, hot conditions this afternoon as highs climb into the mid 80s. High resolution models still hinting at isolated showers this afternoon, thus kept in a 20 percent chance of rain across the area.

Tonight . Increase in low level moisture expected as a cold front begins moving into the Florida peninsula. Light southerly winds will become calm in most places. The combination of light winds and abundant moisture will lead to fog development late tonight over much of east central Florida. Dense fog is possible, especially across the rural interior. Motorists are urged to allow extra time for the morning commute, and slow down when encountering areas of fog, leaving plenty of space between you and the vehicle in front. Extremely mild temps overnight with lows in the mid 60s, except near 70 degrees along barrier islands, which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for mid December.

Wednesday . A strung out vorticity axis emanating from the tail end of a northern stream mid level short wave trough to push across the Southeast CONUS and FL panhandle through Wednesday night. A surge of north winds accompanying the cold front will move through the area quickly, starting across the north around sunrise, through the Space Coast around noon, and Treasure Coast by mid afternoon. Should see isolated to scattered showers developing along and ahead of the front. Lower rain chances along and north of I-4 (20 percent) as the front should already be south of there by mid morning, and higher south (40-50 percent).

A dense overcast deck of clouds to spread south as the front moves in, keeping afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 70s (near normal) from Melbourne to Kissimmee northward. Treasure Coast heats up into the low 80s during first half of the day. Model sounding analysis indicate 500mb temps around -9C to -10C and 700mb around 6C, which could be supportive of lighting but confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this time.

Wed Night . Cold front over central FL will drift down to the Lake-O/Jupiter Inlet vicinity where it will stall and washout. NE wind surge will work its way into the Treasure Coast by midnight as the front's trailing moisture band stalls acrs the CWA, eventually saturating the H100-H85 lyr. Aloft, the right rear quad of a 70KT jet streak will provide some upr lvl evacuation. A broad area of mid lvl omega is present as well, but weak and disorganized . mid lvl vorticity not present.

Strength of the onshore flow diminishes rapidly thru the H85-H70 lyr, but overall mean flow thru H100-H70 lyr coupled with the near saturation of the H100-H85 lyr will require PoPs areawide. The shras will be low topped in nature as a mid lvl subsidence inversion remains in place, but lcl heavy rain will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal boundary due to enhanced sfc convergence coupled with coastal convergence. PoPs will be split from 40-50pct along he coast to 20pct west of the FL Turnpike. Little in the way of cool air advection, especially with the onshore flow. Min temps in the U50s/L60s along and north of I-4 . U60s/L70s over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region. Thu-Fri . The NE wind surge will continue thru the day Thu and into Thu night as the post frontal ridge lifts off the Mid Atlc Coast into the NW Atlc. The H100-H70 mean flow will steadily veer from NE so SE Thu night into Fri, gradually diminishing as the ridge pulls into the open Atlc. Meanwhile, a short wave trof off the Pac coast will race eastward as a 170KT zonal jet streak over E Pac races acrs the country. As this streak noses it way into the W GOMex, it will induce a weak sfc low that will pull the remnant frontal trof/moisture band back to the north as a weak warm front as winds veer thru due south.

WX pattern will remain unsettled to end the work week as SW flow thru the H85-H50 lyr generates a source of mid lvl (isentropic) lift acrs central FL. Airmass will gradually saturate from sfc to cig with PWat values increasing to arnd 1.50" by midday Thu. Meanwhile, an H30-H20 jet streak will place the peninsula under its RR quad, SW mid lvl winds maintain isentropic lift, a mid lvl thermal trof will cool H50 to -11C/-12C, and the front provides a source of sfc convergence.

Will keep slght chc of thunder in the fcst due to the cool temps and dynamic support aloft . limiting factors will be max temps AOB 80F due to high and thickening cloud cover. Local heavy precip (2-4"+) will be possible along/near the east coast due to training shras along and near the frontal boundary. Sct/chc PoPs will show a 30/40 interior 40/50 coastal split. Max temps generally M/U70s, min temps M/U60s.

Saturday-Monday . (prev disc) Mid level troughing over the central-eastern CONUS flattens, allowing the flow to become zonal locally. A few lingering showers Saturday (mainly early) will exit the region, with a drier (but still mild/warm) air mass taking hold into early next week. Maxes in the 75-80F range with mins in the U50s-L60s most areas.

AVIATION. VFR conditions prevail through late evening. Mostly dry, though a few light showers will be possible through the late afternoon. Late tonight, expect fog to develop across much of the area, with areas of dense fog and/or low stratus likely after 11/10Z. Have included TEMPO groups for LIFR visibility and ceilings, though periods of VLIFR conditions are possible too. As a front begins to enter the area, may likely be socked in with MVFR/IFR ceilings for much of the day tomorrow from ISM-TIX northward.

MARINE.

Today-Tonight . South to southwest winds over the local waters to continue through tonight as high pressure ridge starts to pull away from the area. Expect winds to increase to near 15 knots overnight, while seas remain 3-4 feet nearshore and 4-5 feet offshore.

Wednesday . Hazardous boating conditions develop over the waters starting late Wednesday afternoon as a cold front pushes through the region. West winds around 10 knots over the waters to start the day will increase through the afternoon. For the Volusia coastal waters, a Small Craft Advisory will go into effect late afternoon as north winds increase to 20 knots as seas build 5-7 feet nearshore and 7-11 feet offshore.

Wed Night . Hazardous boating conditions dvlpg as the cold front pushes thru central FL and stalls in the vicinity of Lake-O/Jupiter Inlet. Winds bcmg a moderate to fresh NE breeze over the nearshore waters . fresh to strong offshore leg. Seas building to 6-8FT nearshore and 8-12FT offshore. Shras likely south of Sebastian Inlet, chc of shras northward. SCA will be needed by this time.

Thu-Thu Night . Hazardous boating conditions continue as the wind surge slowly diminishes. Winds a fresh to strong E/NE breeze early in the day, decreasing to a moderate to fresh E breeze by sunset, then a gentle to moderate E/SE breeze overnight. Seas will be slow to subside as the easterly fetch will extend well into the open Atlc and push a large easterly swell into the east FL coast. Seas 6-8FT nearshore and 8-12FT offshore thru the day, subsiding to 5-7FT nearshore and 7-9FT offshore by daybreak Fri. Shras likely/slgt chc of tsras.

Fri-Fri Night . The wind surge will diminish by daybreak as the front retreats northward, but seas will remain hazardous as the swell train slowly dampens out. Winds bcmg a gentle to moderate E/SE breeze by sunrise, light to gentle S/SE breeze by sunset, veering to SW by daybreak Sat. Nearshore seas 5-7FT at thru the day, subsiding to 4-6FT overnight . offshore seas 7-9FT thru the day, subsiding to 5-7FT overnight. Wind waves bcmg choppy with the dvlpg offshore breeze. Sct-nmrs shras/slgt chc of tsras.

Sat-Sat Night . SCA seas ending by daybreak Sat but conditions will be rough as a developing low over the GOMex pull a new cold front through central FL. An offshore breeze will prevail thru the day . gentle to moderate breeze nearshore and moderate to fresh offshore . veering from SW at daybreak to due W by sunset, then diminishing to a light to gentle N/NW breeze overnight. Seas 4-5FT nearshore and 5-6FT offshore, subsiding to 3-4FT nearshore and 4-5FT offshore by sunset. Chc of shras.

Sun-Mon . Somewhat marginal conditions as high pres builds acrs the FL Peninsula and into the W Atlc. Winds a light to gentle N breeze at daybreak Sun, veering to E/NE by sunset, then bcmg a gentle to moderate E/SE breeze by daybreak Mon. Diminishing NE swells will continue to enhance lcl wind waves . seas 3-4FT nearshore and 4-5FT offshore Slgt chc of shras Mon. chc/slgt chc of shras Mon night.

DAB 66 74 63 73 / 50 50 40 60 MCO 67 79 63 74 / 40 50 20 40 MLB 68 77 69 75 / 50 60 40 60 VRB 67 81 70 76 / 50 60 50 60 LEE 66 76 59 73 / 40 50 20 30 SFB 67 77 62 74 / 40 50 30 50 ORL 68 79 63 74 / 40 50 20 40 FPR 67 81 71 76 / 50 60 50 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.



Short Term/Aviation . Rodriguez Long Term/Impact WX . Bragaw DayTac . Watson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 35 mi89 min Calm G 0 81°F 1019.3 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 42 mi191 min SSW 5.1 G 8
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 42 mi59 min S 1.9 G 2.9
MCYF1 43 mi53 min 71°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 47 mi89 min S 8 G 8.9 73°F 1019.7 hPa

Wind History for TPA Cruise Terminal 2, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport, FL24 mi30 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds68°F64°F90%1019.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKV

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE8SE8S11S12
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1 day agoSE3CalmSW3CalmSE5SE4S4CalmCalmSE3SE4S7S10S12S11S11S7S6S8SW6CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE6NE6NE5NE5NE5N5N3NE5NE5NE4NE4NE43E7E11
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Tide / Current Tables for Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida
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Aripeka
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:31 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:22 PM EST     2.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:36 PM EST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:20 PM EST     2.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.31.81.20.60.1-0.2-0.200.71.52.32.72.62.41.91.410.80.81.21.82.52.8

Tide / Current Tables for Bayport, Florida
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Bayport
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:31 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:56 PM EST     2.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:49 PM EST     0.89 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:54 PM EST     2.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.52.11.50.80.2-0.1-0.3-0.10.41.222.62.82.62.21.71.310.91.11.72.32.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.