Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lacoochee, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:44PM Saturday March 28, 2020 4:06 PM EDT (20:06 UTC) Moonrise 8:58AMMoonset 10:37PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 337 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Tonight..Southwest winds around 10 knots then becoming southeast around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..West winds around 5 knots then becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Monday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..West winds around 5 knots then becoming south after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..West winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 337 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis.. High pressure will be in place across the waters through Monday with generally light southeast flow in place, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon. The ridge will shift south on Tuesday ahead of a cold front expected to move through Tuesday night into Wednesday, with winds increasing out of the southwest then shifting to northwest behind the front through the end of the period. No headlines are expected.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacoochee, FL
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location: 28.44, -82     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 281913 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 313 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

DISCUSSION. . Hot and Dry Conditions into Early Next Week .

Tonight and Sunday . High pressure will provide for quiet and stable conditions across the area through Sunday. Cloud cover will even be hard to come by due to proximity of high pressure to the area. A well developed east coast sea breeze will continue inland progress through early evening then winds will diminish after dark and eventually all areas except the beaches after 11 PM. Mild overnight with lows in the M-U60s. We will see a repeat on Sunday with a sea breeze moving inland by midday. Highs around 90 near the coast and L-M90s as one moves further inland. Mostly sunny skies.

Monday-Tuesday (modified) . Mid level ridge extending across Florida will begin to break down Tue as strengthening mid/upper trough over the central U.S. shifts eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. The dominant ridge aloft will maintain a hot and dry pattern into early next week. Rain chances will remain out of the forecast through the period, with highs ranging from the mid-upper 80s along the coast and in the lower 90s over the interior on Mon. Then, as low pressure moves through the Southeast U.S. dragging a weak cold front toward the Florida panhandle, low level winds will increase out of the southwest. This should prevent east coast sea breeze formation, with highs over much of the area reaching the lower 90s. Lows will remain quite mild in the 60s each night.

Tuesday night-Saturday (modified) . Isolated to scattered showers will be possible ahead of weak front that will approach and move through central Florida into Tue night through Wed morning. Overall moisture increase ahead of the boundary isn't all too great with PW values reaching 1.5-1.7 inches, and main forcing will remain well north of the area. Will therefore keep any thunderstorm mention out of the forecast for now, with rain chances limited to 30-40 percent as front moves through the region. Drier conditions then return behind the front, with rain chances remaining out of the forecast through Friday. A southern stream shortwave trough moving across the Gulf of Mexico looks to approach FL by next Saturday with increasing moisture and an uptick in rain chances. Will raise POPs to 35-40 percent range Saturday at this point with a chance of showers expected. Later forecast made need to add thunder if the current forecast trends hold.

Temperatures will gradually cool through mid to late week with the frontal passage with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday, dropping to the upper 70s to low 80s late in the week. Lows behind the front will fall into the 50s to low 60s across the area.

AVIATION. VFR conditions are forecast the next 30 hours.

MARINE. Tonight and Sunday . S to SE winds around 15 kt can be expected through early evening then diminishing overnight with loss of sea breeze. Winds increase to around 15 kt in Sunday afternoon. Seas will range 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-5 ft offshore. With continued swell component a little higher than normal and ~11 sec.

Monday-Wednesday . Ridge axis across the area will gradually shift southward into Tue as weak cold front approaches and eventually moves across the waters late Tue night through Wed morning. Winds will be rather light on Monday and then increase to 10-15 knots nearshore and 14-17 knots offshore into Monday night and Tuesday ahead of the front. As front moves through winds will become offshore and increase to 15-20 knots offshore Tue night, with seas increasing up to 4-5 feet.

FIRE WEATHER. Hot and dry conditions into early next week will produce afternoon min RH values as low as the M-U 30s well inland, low to Sunday before rebounding into the upper 30s to low 40s from Monday and Tuesday away from the coast. While, southerly winds should remain below 15 mph through the period, the extremely dry conditions across the area this month will maintain a high fire weather threat for the entire region.

CLIMATE.

Here are the record highs (and years they occurred) for today March 28th through Monday March 30th.

Site Date Record Date Record Date Record /Year /Year /Year DAB 3/28 92-1994 3/29 90-1991 3/30 91-1939 LEE 3/28 89-1991 3/29 90-1991 3/30 91-1991 SFB 3/28 91-2009 3/29 91-1994 3/30 91-2000 MCO 3/28 92-1994 3/29 95-1920 3/30 97-1907 MLB 3/28 93-1994 3/29 90-1974 3/30 92-1975 VRB 3/28 90-1994 3/29 91-1997 3/30 91-2011 FPR 3/28 91-1994 3/29 92-1929 3/30 91-2011

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 65 90 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 66 93 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 64 85 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 64 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 68 94 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 67 93 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 70 93 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 63 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.



SHORT TERM/AVIATION . Pendergrast LONG TERM . Volkmer


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 35 mi132 min WNW 8 G 9.9 87°F 1017.5 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 42 mi66 min WSW 4.1 G 7
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 42 mi54 min SSE 9.9 G 12
MCYF1 43 mi48 min 81°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 47 mi72 min WSW 13 G 14 77°F 1017.9 hPa

Wind History for TPA Cruise Terminal 2, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport, FL24 mi73 minS 810.00 miFair93°F62°F36%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKV

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7NW11W8NW6NW4CalmCalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE4S5--SE8SE8S8SW9
1 day agoW12W10W8NW6NW4W3CalmE8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE7SE8S5E643SE3
2 days agoW18
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W14W13W10SW8W9W7W6W9W7W9W7W4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N4NW5E3SE3W7W8

Tide / Current Tables for Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida
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Aripeka
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:11 AM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:39 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:25 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.91.62.32.62.52.21.81.30.80.50.50.91.72.5332.82.31.71.10.60.2-0

Tide / Current Tables for Bayport, Florida
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Bayport
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:45 AM EDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:52 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:04 PM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:38 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.61.32.12.62.72.52.11.510.70.60.91.52.22.83.132.621.40.70.3-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.