Friday, September18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lacoochee, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:29PM Friday September 18, 2020 5:52 AM EDT (09:52 UTC) Moonrise 7:25AMMoonset 7:43PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 356 Am Edt Fri Sep 18 2020
Today..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers late in the morning.
Tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming north in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds around 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..Northeast winds around 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds around 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 356 Am Edt Fri Sep 18 2020
Synopsis..High pressure will build over the area as a weak cold front moves through. Southwest to west winds tonight will veer to northeast and increase to near advisory levels early next week. Showers and Thunderstorms are possible through the weekend which could cause locally hazardous marine conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacoochee, FL
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location: 28.44, -82     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 180818 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 418 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

DISCUSSION. . Weekend Wind Surge to Create Hazardous Conditions at Coast . . Likely Rain Chances this Weekend . . Beach Erosion Likely Early Next week .

Today-tonight . The remnants of Sally are presently located over the Carolinas, while a cool front is draped SW to NE across northern FL. Locally, will see SW flow today ahead of the front, with showers already pushing ENE across northern portions of the area as of 3:30am this morning. This activity will push southward through the morning as the front moves slowly southward into the area, with chances increasing this afternoon. For PoPs, 60-70% chances for Brevard/Osceola southward to the Treasure Coast and 25-40% northward. This morning's shower activity may be all the rain northern areas experience today, with forecast soundings showing a slightly drier, more stable airmass and even carrying an inversion from ~850-650mb for this afternoon. However, despite this, the HRRR suggests showers developing across the north late afternoon, possibly picking up on lingering ascent from the weak front. So, have left a chance for showers and isolated storms during this time, but this may prove to be too generous. Meanwhile, areas further south will see likely showers with a chance of lightning storms. Forecast soundings in these areas show warm air aloft (~4C at 500mb), so risk for any higher gusts will be lower. However, with PWATs 2.3-2.4" flooding rains may be possible despite storm motions 10-15mph, especially in areas that have seen rainfall over the last few days or have training storms develop. Thus, main threats today will be deadly lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 35mph, and heavy downpours. SW flow will support above average temperatures today in the low 90s, with no relief from the east coast sea breeze.

Activity expected to push offshore this evening as the front continues southward, with a chance of showers and a slight chance of storms lingering along the Treasure Coast through late evening. Then, showers and storms should remain offshore, as winds veer northerly behind the front. Lows in the mid 70s.

Weekend . A frontal trough, ascd with a departing area of low pressure along the coastal Carolinas will initiate a wind surge along the NE FL coast beginning early Sat. Increasing NE flow with breezy to windy conditions will accompany overall deteriorating conditions across the area during Sat and continuing through Sunday, with rain chances becoming likely Sat afternoon across the area. Precipitable water values in excess of two inches will lead to the chc of some locally heavy rainfall with numerous showers and a few storms.

The coastal wind event will manifest itself fully by Sunday with a continuation of windy onshore flow as a strong area of high pressure across the NE US seaboard squeezes the local gradient. Rather high chc of rainfall mainly in periods of onshore moving showers through Sunday night. Highest coverage and amounts can be expected generally along the coastal counties. A few storms will be possible as well, with gusty winds and occasional lightning. highs in U80s to around 90 Sat will fall to the M-U80s Sunday with night time lows both nights in the L-M70s.

Next week . A notable high pressure ridge across the eastern seaboard will keep stout onshore flow in place, with easing of wind speeds during Tue. Airmass drying will also accompany the expanding ridge with local rain chcs diminishing early in the week. Strong marine influence will keep temperature ranges in check with highs averaging in the L-M80s and lows in the U60s to L70s. Return flow around periphery of departing ridge combined with unsettled conditions upstream look to increase rain chcs a little more past the middle of next week.

AVIATION. VCSH this morning for northern inland terminals, with a line of showers pushing ENE through the area as of 8Z. Have also kept the inherited TEMPOs for MVFR early this morning at these terminals, with forecast soundings still showing the possibility of a cloud deck developing around 2500ft. This deck will dissipate in the couple of hours after sunrise. Elsewhere, have included VCSH/VCTS for later this morning and this afternoon, as showers and storms are expected to push southward, with chances increasing into the afternoon. TEMPOs may be needed later for terminals from KMLB southward. CIG/VIS reductions possible in stronger showers and storms. Activity lingering longest along the Treasure Coast, where it is expected to end this evening, then push offshore. SW flow ahead of a weak cool front today veering northerly this evening into tonight as the front pushes southward through the area.

MARINE. Today-tonight . A weak cool front draped across northern Florida will push slowly southward through the area today. SW winds 10-15kts today ahead of the front, with showers and storms, mainly south of the Cape. Then, shower and storm chances will push offshore late this evening through the overnight, as winds veer northerly around 10kts behind the front. Seas 3-5ft.

Weekend . Advisory conditions will overspread the marine area from N-S during by late Sat. Surge of NE winds will build seas through the weekend with onshore winds fully manifesting during Sunday. Building seas will become hazardous for all small craft during Sunday with erosion likely at area beaches by Sunday high tide cycles and continuing early next week.

Next week . Seas forecast to become fully arisen well into double digits offshore by early Monday. Hazardous conditions will continue over all the waters through midweek as this long term marine event continues, due to the combination of various swell sources and strong local winds. Seas may diminish to caution criteria perhaps near shore by Thu.

HYDROLOGY. The Saint Johns River at Astor is presently at Minor Flood Stage. While levels are forecast to remain relatively steady near Minor Flood Stage, expected local rainfall may increase levels through the next several days. Astronomical high tides are also likely impeding water flow. Refer to Flood Statements from NWS Melbourne for the river levels and forecast near Astor, which will be updated daily while the river remains in flood.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 90 76 86 75 / 30 30 70 60 MCO 91 75 90 76 / 40 10 60 30 MLB 91 76 90 78 / 60 20 50 50 VRB 92 75 91 78 / 70 30 50 40 LEE 89 74 89 72 / 30 10 70 30 SFB 91 75 89 74 / 30 10 60 40 ORL 91 76 90 75 / 30 10 60 40 FPR 93 75 90 78 / 70 30 50 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.



SHORT TERM . Leahy LONG TERM . Pendergrast AVIATION . Leahy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EBEF1 42 mi59 min 81°F 85°F1010.4 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 42 mi59 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 42 mi59 min S 1.9 G 2.9
SKCF1 43 mi65 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 47 mi119 min W 8 G 9.9 82°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for TPA Cruise Terminal 2, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport, FL24 mi60 minSSW 410.00 miFair75°F73°F96%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKV

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE8S6S10S9S13
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2 days agoE4E4E5SE4SE5SE4E6E6E5E7E6--CalmN4CalmCalmCalmE4SE7E4CalmE4SE3E4

Tide / Current Tables for Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida
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Aripeka
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:18 AM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:18 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:31 PM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:44 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.83.33.32.92.31.610.50.20.412.13.13.73.73.42.82.11.40.80.40.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for Bayport, Florida
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Bayport
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:52 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:31 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:57 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.63.23.43.22.721.20.60.30.30.81.72.73.53.93.73.22.51.710.50.40.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current



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