Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lacoochee, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...High pressure builds over the Southeast and Florida behind this morning's weak, dry front which is washing out over Central to South Florida. PWATs have dropped to 1" or less from Orlando to Titusville north, continuing dry conditions.
While PWATs are still a decent 1.2-1.3" from the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee, very dry mid-levels will be a significant obstacle to deep convection, limiting rain and lightning storm chances to 20-30% across the south, and highly dependent on boundaries for initiation. Storms that manage to develop could produce gusty winds, occasional cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. The east coast sea breeze has developed and pushed inland of I-95, shifting light winds onshore at 10-15 mph, and starting a persistent period of easterly flow as the southern flank of the surface high settles over Florida. Above normal heat with afternoon highs in the U80s-L90s, though up north the drier air will alleviate the impact some, and the coast will see relief after the sea breeze develops. Peak afternoon heat indices in the U80s-M90s, highest to the south, and generally Minor HeatRisk impacts.

The Weekend...Surface high pressure settles offshore over the Western Atlantic waters, remaining in control of conditions over the southeast seaboard. Onshore flow around the southern flank of the high over Florida will transport moisture from the tropics, increasing rain chances through the weekend. This flow pattern favors a sea breeze collision and highest chances for lightning storms on the western side of the peninsula later in the evening, while over here activity will develop on a diffuse east coast sea breeze possibly as early as the late morning, then push westward through the afternoon. Some activity from the sea breeze collision or subsequent boundaries could blow back towards ECFL late in the evening. Very dry air in the mid-levels persists into Saturday and continue to be a hurdle for deep convection, limiting rain chances to 20-30% from the southern counties and interior, then chances increase to 30-60% across ECFL Sunday (highest across the interior) as the environment becomes more favorable. Dry mid- levels could enhance downdrafts of lightning storms that manage to develop, producing strong wind gusts over 40 mph. Ample instability (MUCAPE upwards of 2,000 J/kg) and moderately cool mid-levels (T500 around -9C) could support small hail. And as always, occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Slightly above normal heat continues inland where highs will be in the U80s-L90s, peak afternoon heat indices in the L-M90s, and Minor to Moderate HeatRisk. Near normal warm along the coastal corridor thanks to the onshore flow, with highs in the M-U80s, peak heat indices in the U80s-L90s, and mainly Minor HeatRisk. Enhancement from the sea breeze will continue to increase onshore winds to 10-15 mph, possibly up to 15-20 mph along the coast in the afternoons.

Next Week...Surface high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard and West Atlantic will meander north and south a bit, but remain relatively stationary and in control of local conditions through most of the week. The ridge axis will stay to our north and onshore flow is forecast persist through at least mid-week, continuing the pattern of showers and lightning storms developing in the late morning to early afternoon on the inland moving sea breeze through the rest of the afternoon. There is a surprising amount of disagreement from the models over moisture by Tuesday, with the GFS continuing to stream higher moisture across the peninsula, while the ECM pulls slugs of drier air south in response to a slightly stronger disturbance east of the Bahamas on the southern periphery of the high. These differences are reflected in the ensembles, so no help there. Above normal rain chances (30-60%)
continue Monday, then for Tuesday and Wednesday, NBM chances end up being a compromise of 20-40%, but could see them go up if the forecast trends towards the GFS. Winds will continue to increase to 10-15 mph in the afternoons through mid-week. Slightly above normal heat inland, while the coast remains closer to normal warm, will also continue. Model solutions further diverge Thursday just as a front approaches Florida, and disagree whether the front stalls north of the area or drops south. Rain chances are likely to continue, but how high and stormy is unclear at this time. The same goes for how hot the late week will be.

MARINE
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Today-Tuesday...Generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend and most of next week. This morning's weak, dry front will continue to wash out while dropping towards South Florida, as high pressure over the Deep South builds over Florida behind the front. The high then shifts east into the nearby Western Atlantic waters, where it will settle through the weekend and much of next week, remaining in control of conditions along the eastern seaboard while meandering north and south a bit. Onshore flow 5-15 kts will persist through the period, picking up to 15-20 kts at times in the evenings/overnights from sea breeze circulation enhancement. Seas mainly 2-4 ft, briefly building up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream late Monday into Tuesday. Isolated showers and lightning storms (chances 20% or less) over the Atlantic waters today and Saturday, becoming isolated to scattered (chances 20-40%) Saturday night through Tuesday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

No significant impacts for MCO through the TAF period.
Across EC FL, low level ENE-E flow around 10 knots currently will decrease overnight and veer SE along the coast where isold SHRA are possible. On Sat, isold morning SHRA along or just offshore the coast will diminish. Breezy E/SE winds behind the sea breeze gusting 20-24 kts. Late sea breeze collision near LEE aft 22Z should produce low (~20%) shra/tsra chances there.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Fire weather conditions become less sensitive as moisture increases in onshore flow, which is forecast to persist through the weekend and much of next week as high pressure settles over the southeast seaboard. Min RHs increase to 40-70% Saturday, lowest across the interior, and generally 50% or higher Sunday onward (values could dip to 45% in portions of Lake, Osceola, and Okeechobee counties Saturday). Easterly winds increase to 10-15 mph, up to 15-20 mph along the coast behind the sea breeze in the afternoons. While min RHs will improve, chances for lightning storms increase, from 20-30% across the southern/interior sections Saturday, to 30-60% across all ECFL Sunday, lowest along the coast and highest inland.
Slightly above normal heat inland with high temperatures in the U80s-L90s, peak afternoon heat indices in the L-M90s, and Minor to Moderate HeatRisk. Onshore flow keeps the coastal corridor near normal warm with highs in the M-U80s, peak heat indices in the U80s-L90s, and mainly Minor HeatRisk.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 87 73 86 / 10 10 10 20 MCO 72 89 72 89 / 10 20 10 50 MLB 77 86 76 85 / 10 10 10 30 VRB 76 86 75 86 / 10 20 20 30 LEE 72 90 73 90 / 10 30 30 50 SFB 71 89 72 89 / 10 10 10 40 ORL 72 89 73 89 / 10 20 10 50 FPR 75 86 74 86 / 10 20 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.