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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 313 Am Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft should exercise caution beginning late in the evening...
Today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the late evening and overnight. A slight chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms late in the evening. A chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..South winds around 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may be severe.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then becoming west around 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy late in the evening, then becoming smooth after midnight.
Friday..North winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth, becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday through Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Bay waters smooth, becoming smooth to slightly choppy after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 313 Am Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
light east winds early this morning will become southeast and begin to strengthen as the day progresses. Increasing winds and building seas can be expected tonight through Thursday along with widespread showers and Thunderstorms. On Thursday, some Thunderstorms may be severe and wind gusts could approach gale force. A cold front is expected to push off the coast late Thursday night or early Friday resulting in a shift to north to northeast winds, but this front may stall offshore leading to periods of unsettled conditions lasting into the weekend. Gradually lowering seas can be expected beginning Thursday night.

FXUS64 KCRP 290940 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 340 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Key Messages:

- Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorm on Thursday - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents on Thursday

Microphysics imagery this morning reveals a mid level stratus deck spreading across the region as a isentropic lift begins to strengthen in the 295-300K layer. Increasing moisture through the day will warrant a slight chance of showers beginning this afternoon. As we head into the evening hours, the column will continue to moisten in the lower levels. This will lead to periods of patchy fog and drizzle through mid morning Thursday.

Our weather becomes a bit more concerning on Thursday as a shortwave trough moves across the state. Strong moisture advection, aided by a 35-40 knot LLJ, Thursday morning will allow for PWATs to climb to near 1.7" by mid day Thursday. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift across the region through the morning. A plume of instability, characterized by MLCAPE values from 1500-2000 J/kg, 0-3km SRH values from 300-600 m2/s2, and mid level lapse rates nearing 8C/km, will be nudged across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads as the LLJ strengthens to 40-45 knots and veers slightly out of the southwest.
This instability axis will quickly move off to our northeast which should help limit our convective potential for those west of Highway 281. However, a passing H85 vort max will help encourage convection for the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, and Victoria Crossroads through Thursday afternoon. SPC currently has a Slight Risk of Severe Storms for our northeastern counties on Thursday with a Marginal Risk covering portions of the Coastal Plains and Northern Coastal Bend. The fast moving nature of these storms will help limit our flooding risk as storm total rainfall amounts are currently less than 1". The latest NBM probabilities only show a 20-25% chance for rainfall amounts over 1", mainly across the Victoria Crossroads.

Lastly, there will be a moderate risk of rip currents on Thursday as winds pick up in the 20-25 knot range. Gerling-Hanson plots show swells increasing to around 8-9s through the day Thursday. This may also lead to some minor coastal flooding during Thursday high tide cycle. However, confidence is low in that outcome.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers Friday-Sunday east, then dry.

- Near normal temperatures.

As the mid-level shortwave ejects northward, quieter weather sets in late in the week. A few showers/storms (see short term discussion)
could linger in the Victoria Crossroads early Thursday night, but will move out quickly. Model consistency has been quite poor the past several days with expectations for fronts. We're still looking at a weak front Friday that will reinforce the drier air that has moved in Thursday night, and bring temperatures back to near normal levels. Beyond that, not seeing much focus through the weekend and into early next week. A weak coastal trough will keep low end (20- 30% chances for showers near the coast through the weekend, but only light accumulations would be expected. The front that had been in the forecast for early next week is in question now with an unclear surface boundary, however a deep pocket of dry air will settle in early in the week as surface high pressure builds. A weak cold front is now indicated for Wednesday, but confidence on this isn't great.
Temperatures through the weekend should remain near normal levels, with potentially cooler air Wednesday providing the passage of the aforementioned front.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR conditions continue tonight. MVFR conditions will begin to develop from the southwest to northeast early Wednesday morning, with all sites MVFR by the afternoon. Isolated showers are expected to develop during the day Wednesday so have included this in the TAFs. While confidence is not high, IFR/LIFR conditions are possible during times of heavier rainfall for the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads.

MARINE
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Southeasterly flow will increase through the day today, becoming moderate to occasionally strong by this afternoon. Southerly flow will continue to increase tonight into Thursday as a 30-40 knot low level jet develops. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory will go into effect at 9 PM for the offshore waters, midnight for the nearshore waters, and mid morning Thursday for the bays. In addition to strong winds from 30-35 knots, seas will climb to around 10-12 feet. These hazardous conditions will persist through Thursday evening. Isolated showers will be possible over the waters today with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely on Thursday. By Friday winds will weaken to light to moderate levels and shift north to northeasterly. Seas will gradually subside. Mainly weak or weak to moderate winds are expected through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 70 65 82 64 / 10 40 20 0 Victoria 68 62 76 61 / 10 60 80 10 Laredo 60 57 79 60 / 20 10 0 0 Alice 68 62 82 61 / 20 30 20 0 Rockport 69 64 76 63 / 10 40 50 0 Cotulla 63 58 78 57 / 20 20 10 0 Kingsville 69 64 83 63 / 20 30 20 0 Navy Corpus 72 67 79 66 / 10 40 30 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ231- 232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ250-255.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ270-275.

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Port O'Connor
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Wed -- 12:05 AM CST     1.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:20 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:51 PM CST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:28 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:29 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Port Lavaca
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:41 AM CST     1.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:00 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:21 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:18 PM CST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:29 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:29 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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