Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port O'Connor, TX

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Key Messages:

- Daily low to medium rain chances through Thursday.

Now that front is upon us today, the front stalls and is stuck over the Coastal Bend through Tuesday. The thermal gradient washes out, and with time, on Tuesday, the sfc trough fills in. However, the onshore flow and frontal convergence will help to push the moisture up. Currently, the PWAT values are around 1.3", but move up to around 1.5-1.7" by Tuesday. 500 mb shortwaves eject out of the longer, shallow 500 mb longwave trough off the west coast. So Wednesday has low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms while Wednesday night and Thursday looks to have low chance. Friday through Sunday the NBM is dry, but the GFS and to much lesser extent, the ECMWF, do have isolated showers, in the western and northern portions of the Brush Country. So something could be introduced by the time we get to the weekend, but for now, the forecast will remain dry.

High temperatures are expected to remain fairly consistent with lower to mid 80s along the Coastal Bend to the lower to mid 90s in the Rio Grande Plains.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Isolated showers across the Victoria Crossroads this evening are expected to diminish through 02Z. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by early Monday morning across the Coastal Bend to the Victoria Crossroads. Rain chances are medium (30-50%) for mainly Monday morning with chances decreasing by Monday afternoon. Rain chances across LRD and COT are low (5-14%). A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period with brief periods of IFR between 09-15Z across ALI, CRP and VCT, and brief MVFR between 12-16Z across LRD and COT. Surface winds will generally be light and variable, becoming easterly around 10 knots by Monday afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A light to gentle breeze (BF 2-3) is expected tonight and tomorrow with winds increasing to a predominately gentle breeze (BF 3) Monday night. Medium rain chances (40-50%) will linger across the bays and nearshore waters as while the front stalls and lingers across the region. Rain chances should improve late Monday afternoon. The onshore flow will increase to a Moderate breeze (BF 4) Tuesday. A generally Moderate to Fresh breeze (BF 4-5) will then persist through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Low to medium rain chances (20-50%) are expected daily through Wednesday, before diminishing late week into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 40% across the Brush Country and above 50% across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads Monday and Monday night. The moderate to high relative humidity values and low Energy Release Component values below the 55th percentile should prevent elevated fire weather conditions from developing through Monday night. Plentiful moisture with daily rain and thunderstorm chances will maintain RH values above critical thresholds all week. No elevated or critical fire weather concerns are expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 71 83 71 84 / 30 50 0 30 Victoria 66 85 68 85 / 30 40 0 40 Laredo 65 92 72 93 / 0 10 10 30 Alice 68 88 69 89 / 20 30 0 30 Rockport 71 83 72 84 / 40 50 0 30 Cotulla 63 94 71 93 / 0 0 10 40 Kingsville 70 85 69 86 / 20 50 0 30 Navy Corpus 71 80 72 80 / 40 50 0 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ270-275.