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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 903 Pm Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
.gale watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday morning...
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming west late. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy, becoming smooth late.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 15 knots, becoming north around 30 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming very rough.
Sunday..North winds around 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots, diminishing to around 20 knots. Bay waters very rough, becoming choppy.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming northeast late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday night..East winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 903 Pm Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
small craft will want to exercise caution overnight as winds of 15 to 20 knots are being observed on the gulf waters. A cold front will push off the coast Saturday evening with strong northwest and north winds in its wake. Sustained winds around gale force with higher gusts are likely into Sunday morning before gradually diminishing. Low water levels are also anticipated in the bays on Sunday. High pressure moves off to the east on Monday and a long fetch of moderate east and southeast winds will then set up across the gulf for much of next week.

FXUS64 KHGX 082341 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 541 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 144 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Weak disturbances aloft coupled with deep LL moisture advection have resulted in scattered showers and even an isolated rumble of thunder here and there today. Activity on radar is showing signs of waning as 850MB WAA enhances the cap aloft. This will come into play tomorrow for our thunderstorm threat. Tonight is expected to be a mild and muggy night with lows struggling to drop below 70 degrees. Winds should also decrease as we head into the evening hours.

The much anticipated cold front arrives tomorrow afternoon, bringing with it a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Shear and some instability parameters point to the possibility of a few strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the aforementioned cap aided by WAA around 850MB will act as a suppressive force against our updrafts. IF we can achieve more sunshine than expected then MAYBE we can mix the atmosphere enough to overcome the cap. IF severe thunderstorms were to occur, the primary concern would be damaging wind gusts. Most locations will not receive a strong to severe thunderstorms. Considering the strong cap, the atmosphere may be hard pressed to produce any thunderstorms. However, given the shear parameters, the radar will still warrant a close eye tomorrow afternoon. Temps in the 70s with muggy conditions are expected ahead of the front. Winds increase from the northwest behind the front as CAA takes hold.
Most of the CWA is expected to drop into the 40s Sunday night. So get that ugly holiday sweater ready!

Self

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 144 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Come Sunday morning, we will be firmly in a post-frontal environment, and enjoying (or not, depending on your happiness about cooler weather) temperatures a good 20-25 degrees colder than 24 hours previous on Saturday morning. Winds also look to be pretty gusty at the outset of the day - a gale watch is in effect for the Gulf waters, and we may need a wind advisory for the islands and potentially even coastal portions of the mainland if we really see strong, northwesterly winds materialize in the wake of the front.

Those winds will gradually come down through the day Sunday, but cold advection will continue, keeping highs in the 50s rather than the 70s we're expecting for Saturday on the warm side of the front.
Though chilly, we should see a pretty good amount of sun.
And while early December sun is pretty close to min power for the year, it should at least make for a nice, chilly day and not a dreary chilly day!

High pressure settles in Sunday night, and yup, we're getting together the ol' radiational cooling gang for that one. Clear sky, dry air, light winds...expect this one to get chilly. Hey, at least we don't have fresh snowpack to really boost the overnight free-fall in temperatures! NBM numbers actually do seem pretty reasonable.
Already undercutting globals like the GFS and Euro, which are probably missing the coldest part of a shallow cold pool. However, I'm not really ready to buy into a super cold solution like the Canadian. I did mix in a bit of the 25th percentile NBM to slide my result down the probability curve a little bit for Sunday and Monday night. This normally wouldn't be a huge deal, but with forecast lows potentially right around freezing for a good chunk of the area, I want to try to get on the right side of that line for as many folks as I can.

The high slips east of our area Monday, which will turn winds more easterly and at least shut off the cold air tap. Monday night into Tuesday, a weak upper trough and an associated surface low zip through Ontario. What does this have to do with us in Texas? Well, nothing directly. But another Canadian high will drop through the Great Plains and into the eastern half of the US, reinforcing the high pressure already set up there. This will keep generally easterly flow in place for the rest of the week. At least some of that time will be a little more south of due east, and will help filter back in some warmer, more humid air and send temperatures on an upward trend into the midweek. Things won't get crazy, but we'll surely see highs get back into the 60s to around 70 and humidity keeping overnight lows up as well. Beyond that, there's a bit more uncertainty. While the synoptic picture doesn't change significantly, moisture looks to build enough for more clouds going into the back half of the week, which will certainly arrest any warming trend, and may even shave a couple degrees off daytime highs (the clouds will probably act to keep overnight lows a bit warmer though, as well).

Finally, late Thursday into Thursday night, some low PoPs look to creep into the picture as we get ready for the arrival of our next front.

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Gusty southerly winds should weaken in the next hour or so, but will generally remain around 10 knots or less tonight. Ceilings will continue to deteriorate this evening with MVFR conditions prevailing overnight and Saturday. A cold front will move through the region early Saturday afternoon, bringing a few showers and storms around/near the terminals. Models suggest weak convection near terminals with the FROPA; therefore, have kept VCSH in TAFs for now. Conditions should gradually improve to VFR behind the frontal boundary by late afternoon/early evening. Gusty northwest winds can be expected towards the end of this TAF cycle.

JM

MARINE
Issued at 144 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Moderate onshore flow and somewhat elevated seas will prevail in the waters 20 to 60 NM through today into Saturday. Caution flags are up for those waters and winds are very near the small craft threshold this afternoon. Depending on the timing of Saturday's cold front, we may have a very brief window for a bit of fog Saturday evening. This would only occur if the front is late, giving us time after sunset with light winds and humid air over cooler waters.

The cold front will push off the coast Saturday evening with strong northwest and north winds in its wake. Winds around gale force are likely into Sunday morning before gradually diminishing.
Low water levels are also anticipated in the bays on Sunday. High pressure moves off to the east on Monday and a long fetch of moderate east and southeast winds will then set up across the Gulf for much of next week. This fetch is frequently one that supports sea fog, but we'll first have to erase the dry air in place. With the expected trend for increasing humidity, any fog would hold off until late next week, and would likely be patchy and not terribly dense. However, this may be something to watch as we push into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 66 74 42 56 / 0 30 10 0 Houston (IAH) 68 78 45 57 / 10 50 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 65 73 48 58 / 10 40 50 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-370-375.

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Port O'Connor
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Fri -- 02:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:05 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:11 AM CST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:30 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:29 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:19 PM CST     0.74 feet High Tide
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