Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hernando Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:24PM Thursday February 20, 2020 1:08 PM EST (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 5:14AMMoonset 3:51PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 927 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Friday night...
This afternoon..East winds around 10 knots then becoming southwest. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming north around 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..North winds around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming north around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 927 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis.. Pleasant boating conditions are expected through today before the next cold front moves across the waters tonight and early Friday bringing increasing winds and seas. Robust northeast winds are expected to produce exercise caution to advisory conditions late Thursday night into Saturday, then winds and seas will subside for Sunday. Early next week southeast to south flow increases once again as high pressure moves out into the western atlantic ocean and the next storm system moves into the eastern states.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hernando Beach, FL
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location: 28.47, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 201745 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1245 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

AVIATION. MVFR ceilings continue to affect some of the northern terminals around the Bay but conditions should improve in the next few hours. A cold front will pass over the area tonight and winds will veer from S to SW tonight and after its passage after midnight, winds will be from the NW. After sunrise, winds will turn from the north and increase to 12-18 kt and higher gusts after 21/14z. Ceilings will also reach IFR tonight and expected to become MVFR after mid-morning. Reduction to visibilities will also be possible after midnight at some of the terminals.

Prev Discussion. /issued Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL/

UPDATE . Low clouds and patchy fog streaming from the south this morning have started to dissipate and clear the southern portions of the forecast area, while a persisting area is still affecting the Tampa Bay area and north of Hillsborough and Polk counties northward. So a gradient of cloud coverage will continue from mostly cloudy from Levy to Hillsborough/Polk, to partly cloudy for Manatee/Highlands to Lee. Temperatures will also depend on how much sunlight they receive late this morning and afternoon, but these are expected to reach the 80s. A few showers were observed in the long range scan of the TTPA terminal radar moving northward over the coastal waters of the Nature Coast but these were light to moderate. As the day progresses, winds will shift from the southwest and a sea breeze is expected to develop, triggering the development of a few showers over the coastal counties and moving inland through the afternoon. Sky conditions were adjusted to the current pattern.

Prev Discussion . /issued 629 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020/

AVIATION .

LIFR/IFR conditions are widespread over inland areas and just now making it to the coast, showing up at PGD and SRQ. I have introduced tempo groups at all airports for the next couple hours until the sun can start to lift some of this out.

Prev Discussion . /issued 337 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020/

DISCUSSION . A positively-tilted trough axis is propagating southeastward from the high plains toward the Florida peninsula as weak high pressure is eroded across the Florida peninsula. The trough is dragging a cold front with it, and this will be arriving on our doorstep late tonight. Because the front will not be arriving until tonight, there is still one more day of a summer-like pattern. Light and variable winds through the morning hours with high dewpoints provide a good setup for interior areas and SWFL to see patchy fog. Once the sun rises, this will quickly dissipate. Temperatures are expected to top out in the 80s once again this afternoon. Some areas may once again be flirting with record high temperatures. Conditions favor a few weak showers developing early, with some subtle convergence. As the light synoptic flow will stick around through the afternoon, the sea breeze is expected to kick in, and a few showers could develop along the boundary and then move inland.

Today's weather conditions contrast sharply with tomorrow. The trough axis and attendant cold front will push through quickly tonight. Not much rain is expected to accompany this front, with the bulk of the upper support staying to our north and east. Some showers are possible in northern counties, but most people will likely only notice low clouds. A colder, continental airmass originating from Canada will quickly take the place, and a northerly wind will allow the cooler air to funnel southward. Due to the strong thermal gradient, gusty winds will also return, and stick around until tomorrow night. It will feel much cooler on Friday morning, with some areas being 20 degrees cooler. Temperatures won't warm up much either through the day with cloud cover persisting for many places through the afternoon.

As is typical when a front passes, Saturday morning is expected to be the coldest morning. A gradual warmup will begin to take place thereafter, and 80s are back in the forecast to kick off the work week as high pressure shifts east and winds turn ESE. Another front is expected to arrive next Thursday, and this will cool temps down once more.

MARINE . Fairly calm and benign boating conditions today will give way to advisory conditions as winds and seas increase as a cold front arrives overnight. Winds and seas will remain elevated into the weekend before gradually subsiding with benign conditions returning.

FIRE WEATHER . Some patchy fog is possible through the morning hours, but will quickly burn off as the sun rises. A few showers are possible today as the seabreeze develops and migrates inland. A cold front arrives tonight, but should remain dry. Outside of some higher dispersions, no other fire weather concerns exist at this time, with RH values remaining above critical thresholds.

Prev Discussion . /issued 126 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020/

AVIATION . Some temporary reductions in CIGS/VSBY possible through the morning hours as low clouds and patchy fog continue to develop. By mid- morning, conditions should improve to VFR. There is the possibility for some showers, but the likelihood is too low for mentioning at this time. A front will be moving through near the end of the forecast period, bringing lowering CIGS and northwesterly winds near the end of the forecast period.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. TPA 53 63 43 69 / 20 10 0 0 FMY 61 71 49 72 / 0 10 0 0 GIF 53 61 44 69 / 20 10 0 0 SRQ 56 68 46 72 / 10 10 0 0 BKV 48 61 38 69 / 30 10 0 0 SPG 54 65 45 70 / 10 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. Gulf waters . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.



SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER . 74/Wynn MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT . 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 23 mi75 min E 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 1020 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 35 mi57 min 72°F 70°F1019.1 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 39 mi69 min S 8.9 G 12
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 39 mi69 min ESE 6 G 8.9
MCYF1 40 mi51 min 73°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 43 mi51 min 75°F 74°F1018.9 hPa
GCTF1 49 mi57 min 75°F 1019.1 hPa71°F
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 49 mi51 min 77°F 73°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport, FL11 mi76 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast77°F66°F71%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKV

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8NW6N5N5N4N3NW3N4N4CalmE3E4NE6NE4NE7NE6NE5NE7E6E9E9E5SE6SE9
1 day agoS6S8S6NW5W7W4NW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N4NW7NW6Calm
2 days ago53CalmNW11W7NW5NW4N3NW3NE3CalmCalmE4CalmE3E3E3CalmE4SE7S9S10SE11S10

Tide / Current Tables for Hernando Beach, Rocky Creek, Little Pine I. Bay, Florida
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Hernando Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:18 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:51 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:24 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:49 PM EST     1.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:30 PM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.321.510.4-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.30.31.21.92.22.221.81.51.31.21.11.31.72.22.5

Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Florida
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Hudson
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:30 AM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:07 PM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:51 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:21 PM EST     1.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:24 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:09 PM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.81.20.4-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.20.41.21.82.32.42.32.11.71.41.21.31.51.92.32.62.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.