Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hernando Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 6:56PM Monday October 21, 2019 3:57 AM EDT (07:57 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:35PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 302 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Today..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds around 10 knots then becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Tuesday night..North winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 302 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Synopsis..Conditions will remain generally quiet, but a weak warm front is drifiting northward. This boundary will likely result in a few showers breaking out during the day on Monday. Conditions remain otherwise benign until Wednesday, when higher winds and seas may return, potentially requiring cautionary statements.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hernando Beach, FL
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location: 28.47, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 210707
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
307 am edt Mon oct 21 2019

Discussion
An upper level ridge is building in across the region as a weak
"warm" front is beginning to lift across the peninsula, leading to
increased mid-level cloud cover to start off the day. Coupled with
diurnal heating, the weak forcing is expected to lead to scattered
showers, primarily around tampa bay and northward. While a
thunderstorm is not impossible today, the likelihood seems low,
given the thermodynamics of warm fronts and also the fact that the
atmosphere is warm. Last night's sounding showed the o-degree
celsius line to be around approximately 550mb (21,000ft). This is
nearly halfway through the troposphere. Model data continues to
support this trend continuing during the day.

As Tuesday arrives, another front will be approaching the area,
dragged by a trough axis beginning to negatively tilt over the great
lakes region. This will keep rain chances in the forecast, but
overall the front is expected to hit a wall and weaken substantially
over the central part of the state. From about tampa bay northward,
a hint of fall will be in the air, especially Wednesday morning,
but most of SW florida will barely notice the system. Drier air
will funnel into the region, though, leading to a more comfortable
day. This will not last long, however. Temperatures will warm
back up again on Thursday and moisture returns with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms possible.

By Friday, another front will be approaching the peninsula as
shortwave trough axis negatively tilts over the great plains and
propagates in a general ene direction. There are some timing
differences in model guidance at this point, but a generally
unsettled weather pattern is expected through the weekend as the
frontal system destabilizes the atmosphere around it in tandem
with the synoptic-scale ascent mechanisms accompanying the front.

This will keep decent rain chances in for the latter part of the
forecast period, but also slightly lower temperatures with the
increased cloud cover.

Aviation
In generalVFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the
forecast period. With a very weak warm front making its way
northward, northern terminals do have vcsh in the tafs to account
for the convection that is expected to develop this morning closer
to the coast and make its way more inland by the afternoon. While a
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, conditions are generally not very
conducive for thunderstorms, but more showery weather. Winds will
remain light through the early part of the day from the se, but will
become more SW during the afternoon around 6-10kts.

Marine
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this
morning in coastal waters. While seas are expected to remain in the
1-2ft range through the morning hours with light SE winds, showers
could cause higher seas and winds for brief periods. In general,
conditions will remain more or less the same through Wednesday,
before higher ene and eventually E winds and seas come back into the
forecast. Cautionary statements may be needed mid-week to account
for the higher winds and seas. Weather conditions will remain
somewhat unsettled into the weekend, making the latter part of the
week less favorable for boating.

Fire weather
Fire weather concerns remain low as values remain above critical
levels through the week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 87 76 88 70 50 10 30 10
fmy 89 75 89 74 10 0 10 10
gif 89 74 90 70 30 0 30 10
srq 89 76 89 71 30 10 20 10
bkv 89 72 88 65 50 20 30 10
spg 88 77 88 71 50 10 30 10

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation marine fire weather... Flannery
decision support... Fleming


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 3 mi123 min E 2.9 G 4.1 74°F 1014.3 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 23 mi123 min E 5.1 G 6 73°F 1015 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 35 mi63 min NE 5.1 G 7 75°F 82°F1014.4 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 39 mi57 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 39 mi57 min NE 1.9 G 5.1
MCYF1 40 mi57 min 82°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 43 mi57 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 76°F 81°F1014.1 hPa (-1.0)
GCTF1 49 mi57 min 78°F 1014.1 hPa (-1.0)70°F
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 49 mi57 min E 1 G 2.9 78°F 81°F1014.5 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport, FL11 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair67°F64°F91%1014.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKV

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW5SW5SW3W4W4W8NW8NW7NW9
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NW11NW9N6W6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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2 days agoNE5CalmCalmN3NE4E7CalmNE5E6E4E5NE6NE6NE4NE6NE5E5E4E9E8E4E6E6E11

Tide / Current Tables for Hernando Beach, Rocky Creek, Little Pine I. Bay, Florida
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Hernando Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:50 AM EDT     1.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 02:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:16 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:07 PM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.71.71.92.32.72.82.82.62.21.91.51.10.70.50.40.50.81.41.92.42.52.52.3

Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Florida
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Hudson
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:19 AM EDT     1.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 01:52 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:42 PM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.92.12.42.83.13.132.62.11.61.10.80.50.40.60.91.522.42.72.72.62.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.