Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Windermere, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 205 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Early this morning, all eyes are on a powerful disturbance across the Mississippi Valley that continues to carve out a sharp dip in the polar jet stream. This feature will mature today, with surface low pressure becoming vertically stacked beneath the core of the upper-level trough across the Great Lakes. A strong cold front, draped from its parent surface low down into the Gulf, is quickly sweeping eastward toward Florida.

Locally, broad south to southwest flow is in place ahead of the front this morning. At the base of the trough over AL/GA later today, a 130+ kt jet streak at H5 will force ascent along and just ahead of the cold front. By afternoon, the PBL mass response will be characterized by 3 kft (H925) winds increasing to 25-35 kt, further building to around 30-40 kt at 5 kft (H85). This results in 25-30 kt of effective shear. Seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, combined with unseasonably high surface moisture and warmth, will yield 1,500-2,500 J/kg of SFC CAPE in the mostly uncapped warm sector ahead of the front. Other favorable convective parameters include STP values around 1, 150+ J/kg of 0-3km CAPE, and downdraft CAPE values approaching 1,000 J/kg.

Behind the front on Monday night, a shallow, yet stout, layer of cold advection will rush southward, dropping 3kft temperatures over northern portions of Central Florida from the 95th percentile today (+19 to +20 deg C) down to near climatological minima (+1 to +3 deg C) by Tuesday afternoon! The anomalous subtropical moisture will also be scoured out as PWs drop to 0.4 to 0.7 in (near the 20th percentile).

Thereafter, confidence has begun to improve for the second half of this forecast period. The 14/12Z grand ensemble still depicts a fairly classic +PNA pattern with negligible high-latitude blocking. The northern stream should relax and move poleward, but a lingering trough will reside over the eastern U.S. downstream of a record-shattering early-season heat ridge out West. Consensus is growing that the nearby trough axis will be just progressive enough to hold the deep moisture immediately southeast of Central Florida late this week. A tightening pressure gradient is anticipated over the peninsula, freshening onshore flow and gradually eroding the cool, continental air mass.

By the weekend, another disturbance in the polar jet across the Northeast U.S. should continue to push the trough seaward. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will act to pull downslope-warmed air off the Rockies toward the Deep South. Confidence trails off in about a week. By next Monday, a majority of the membership keeps any fronts north of Florida. However, around a third of the members dig a deeper trough into the Northeast U.S., sending a backdoor cold front toward the state.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today...

A Few Strong To Severe Storms This Afternoon and Evening

The morning should start off on a quiet note, with hi-res guidance suggesting breaks of sunshine and quickly-warming temperatures through midday. As the low-level jet cranks up, the initial mix-out late in the morning could deliver southerly wind gusts up to around 30 mph. Windy conditions will then persist as we move into the afternoon.

Similar to what happened yesterday, we expect conditions to go downhill as we push into the afternoon and evening. You'll want to have multiple ways of receiving weather warnings. Consider checking the Wireless Emergency Alert feature in your phone's settings, and make sure weather alerts are enabled.

Proximity soundings look uncapped by early afternoon, with convective temps in the low-mid 80s. A couple of rounds of storms are on the table. First, we cannot rule out some discrete storms firing off in the open warm sector by early-mid afternoon. This activity will be moving northeastward, and the environment raises some concern that a couple of supercells may develop. Convective-allowing models favor development from Melbourne to Okeechobee and east to the coast. Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the primary threats, with a limited tornado threat existing, especially along the coast.

Then, as the cold front arrives northwest of Orlando by 2-4 PM, a broken line of showers and storms should push into the district. This activity may arrive either just before or during the I-4 evening rush. These broken line segments will be moving southeastward, reaching the Treasure Coast between 6 and 10 PM before exiting the area to the south. Shear vectors parallel to the line segments may limit severe potential. However, any bowing segments that allow the 0-3km vector to become at least somewhat perpendicular to the line would be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado.

SPC has placed most of the area in a Slight / 15% severe wind risk today. This matches well with the latest AI/ML guidance.

Storms should be moving quickly enough to limit the risk for excessive rainfall. There is a low chance (10%) of picking up 2-3" if your location sees multiple rounds of storms today.

High temps will reach the 80s today, the warmest from Orlando southward, where some upper 80s are expected. A few spots may reach 90 deg F, particularly close to Lake O.

Tonight - Tuesday Night...

Don't put away the socks, jackets and Q-zips just yet. Lingering showers should exit the Treasure Coast by around midnight, paving the way for colder air to rush down the peninsula. Wind chills in the mid- upper 30s should be expected northwest of I-4 on Tuesday morning. Highs on Tuesday will be well below normal, from near 60 over Volusia County to the upper 60s south of St Lucie Inlet.
Throw in a thickening cirrus deck and a pesky northerly breeze, and you have the recipe for a chilly Florida afternoon.

Cold March temperatures will persist into Tuesday night. Low temps should fall well into the 40s over the interior and Volusia County, with low 50s along the immediate coast south of the Cape.

Wednesday - Next Weekend...

Due to some discrepancies in the guidance, we will continue to carry low (< 30%) rain chances over the Treasure Coast on Wednesday, perhaps lingering along the coast south of the Cape into Thursday and Friday as well. However, recent trends have been drier.

Florida will be stuck between strong high pressure to the north and an old surface trough from the Bahamas to the NW Caribbean Sea. This will cause winds to turn northeasterly, ending the cold advection and slowly warming our temperatures in time. Temperatures return closer to normal by Friday, then jump further as we move into the weekend. There is now a 70-80% chance of reaching 80 deg F + by Saturday and Sunday under plentiful sunshine.

MARINE
Issued at 205 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Boating conditions worsen and become hazardous over the next day or so as a strong cold front approaches the local Atlantic. Offshore-moving showers and storms will have the potential to produce gusty winds this afternoon and evening as the front passes. South-southwest winds turn northwesterly and freshen tonight. The cold front stalls in the southern Bahamas by mid-week as high pressure moves over the Mid-Atlantic states. Moderate to fresh onshore winds will result, building seas once again later in the week.

Small Craft Advisories will go into effect today, first for the Gulf Stream this morning, then for the nearshore zones by afternoon. Seas 3-6 ft today, building to 6-9 ft by early Tuesday in the Gulf Stream. Seas diminish to 4-6 ft on Wednesday, but some 7 ft seas return to the Gulf Stream on Thursday as onshore winds increase.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

S/SW winds increase through sunrise just above the boundary layer reaching 30-35 kt around 2k ft across northern terminals. There will be a corresponding increase in the southerly sfc wind of 8-10 knots so have held off on LLWS in the TAFs. After sunrise, daytime heating will quickly mix down those gusty S/SW winds reaching 24-28 kts. A squall line will approach northern terminals ahead of a strong cold front btwn 19Z-23Z. Ahead of the main band, discrete convection should develop south of MCO and affect MLB-SUA btwn 19Z-22Z. This may be followed by another round of storms there with the squall line itself closer to 00Z-02Z though some weakening should occur.
TEMPO groups are in place for all terminals for CIG/VSBY restrictions in TSRA btwn 19Z-23Z along with gusty winds around 30 knots. There is potential for convective wind gusts greater than 35 knots at several terminals. A NW wind shift will occur from north to south Mon night behind the front with 15kts G20-24kts.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 205 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Numerous showers with scattered storms are forecast this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. While wetting rains are forecast for many places, lightning may spark new fires.

Much cooler and drier air filters over the district on Tuesday. RH minima on Tuesday fall to 30-40% near and northwest of I-4. North winds around 10-12 mph will combine with the dry air to produce fire-sensitive conditions. RH values recover slightly on Wednesday and Thursday, then fall into the 35-40% range again on Friday over the interior.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 83 45 59 45 / 80 30 0 0 MCO 85 49 61 47 / 80 30 0 0 MLB 86 52 63 50 / 80 50 10 10 VRB 87 56 65 53 / 80 60 10 10 LEE 81 45 61 43 / 80 20 0 0 SFB 83 48 61 45 / 80 30 0 0 ORL 84 49 61 47 / 80 30 0 0 FPR 87 56 65 53 / 80 60 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575.