Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Conway, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Current-Thursday...Mid-level troughing persists across the eastern US, with a series of shortwaves forecast to round the base of the trough and move overhead the Florida peninsula tonight into Thursday. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary draped across Cuba and the Bahamas is forecast to generally remain in place, slowly drifting southward tonight and into Thursday as high pressure remains centered across the Carolinas and up towards the Mid Atlantic region. The shortwaves will act as weak upper level enhancement, allowing for just enough energy to produce some isolated to scattered shower activity across the local Atlantic waters and from the Cape southward. Rain chances remain 20-30% along the coast and 30-50% across the local Atlantic waters through the remainder of today through Thursday.. Rainfall totals are anticipated to remain below a quarter of an inch. At this time, confidence in storm development remains too low to mention, so have kept it out of the forecast.

The plume of moisture associated with the stalled boundary has led to cloud coverage remaining high across east central Florida, which has limited daytime heating across the area. Temperatures remain on track to reach the upper 60s across most spots, with some low 70s not able to be fully ruled out. Another night of cooler than normal temperatures is forecast, with lows falling into the mid 40s to mid 50s, with some spots along the immediate Treasure Coast only falling into the upper 50s. Cloud coverage is forecast to decrease slightly into Thursday, allowing for better daytime heating. Forecast highs reach the upper 60s along the coast north of the Cape with low to mid 70s elsewhere.

Northerly winds are forecast to prevail across east central Florida through the remainder of today and into Thursday. Wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph are forecast, with gusts to 30 mph possible at times. These winds will lead to building seas and poor to hazardous beach conditions. A high risk of rip currents is forecast to continue into Thursday and with the northerly winds, a southward-flowing longshore current is likely also present.
Entering the ocean is not advised with these conditions!

Friday-Monday...The stalled boundary gets kicked farther southeastward as one final shortwaves moves across the Florida peninsula on Friday. Low rain chances (20-30%) continue into Friday afternoon across the Atlantic waters and along the Treasure Coast, with conditions trending drier into this weekend and the start of next week as high pressure stretches from the Gulf towards east central Florida. Skies become clearer and winds lighten to 5 to 10 mph, with winds becoming variable at times as the high sits overhead. The presence of the surface high will support a warming trend locally, with afternoon temperatures anticipated to reach the 80s once more by this weekend. By Monday, there is indication that some areas, especially across the interior, could reach 5 to 7 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Tuesday-Wednesday...The pattern begins to transition across east central Florida towards the middle of next week as a frontal boundary approaches Florida and stalls just north of the peninsula. Guidance indicates increasing moisture out ahead of the boundary, which would result in a return of low rain chances (20%) nearly areawide across east central Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to slightly trend downward, reaching near normal temperatures by Wednesday.

MARINE
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions are anticipated to persist across the local Atlantic waters over the next several days. North to northeast winds between 15 to 25 knots will cause seas to build to 6 to 9 feet, with the highest seas focused across the offshore waters. By this weekend, a return of generally favorable boating conditions is anticipated. High pressure settles across the waters, resulting in winds diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas respond by subsiding to 2 to 5 feet. Generally favorable boating conditions are anticipated to persist into early next week.

Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue across the local Atlantic waters through Friday as a stalled boundary draped across Cuba and the Bahamas produces a plume of moisture across the area. Rain chances fall over the weekend as high pressure moves into the area and drier air settles across east central Florida and the local Atlantic waters.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR continues at most sites with MVFR CIGs and iso. -SHRA at FPR- SUA. Beginning at 08z, probabilities of MVFR CIGs increase along the coast, slowly moving south from DAB to SUA thru the day Thu.
This cycle, TAFs remain near VFR/MVFR CIGs but may need future adjustments at coastal terminals. VCSH cannot be ruled out TIX southward after 12z-14z Thu.

NNE winds settle to around 7-13 kt overnight, increasing after 14z Thu. with gusts 20-25+ kt (especially at the coast).

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions are anticipated to persist across east central Florida over the next few days due to near- critical minimum RH values and breezy north winds of 10 to 15 mph.
Winds are anticipated to subside to 5 to 10 mph by Saturday, but near-critical RH values are forecast to persist into the weekend.
These sensitive conditions will only be further exacerbated by warming temperatures through the forecast period. An improvement in RH values does not look to occur until early next week as moisture increases as a frontal boundary approaches the peninsula.
Steps to prevent wildfire creation or spread should be taken, including not parking on dried out grass, discarding cigarettes properly, and avoiding any outdoor burning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 52 69 53 73 / 0 0 10 0 MCO 52 71 53 76 / 0 0 10 0 MLB 56 72 58 75 / 10 20 20 10 VRB 57 74 58 76 / 10 30 30 20 LEE 48 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 50 72 52 76 / 0 0 10 0 ORL 52 72 54 76 / 0 0 10 0 FPR 55 75 57 76 / 10 30 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ555.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ572-575.