Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Conway, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 922 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Forecast remains on track with no changes needed this morning.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure is forecast to push southeast off the coast of the Carolinas today, pushing a weakening cold front southwestward towards the Florida peninsula and across the local Atlantic waters. PWATs increase to 1.5 to 1.7 inches locally out ahead of the front, resulting in rain chances increasing to 20 to 40 percent, with the greatest chances focused from the Orlando metro towards the Cape and areas northward. The approaching front will also be further aided by the east coast sea breeze pushing inland this afternoon, which will assist with shower development. Activity is anticipated to gradually shift southward towards the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County as the front pushes farther south into the overnight hours, though guidance is not enthusiastic about coverage and thus, PoPs remain around 20 percent overnight across these areas. While the rain is certainly welcome after a period of dry conditions, not every spot will receive rainfall due to the scattered nature of coverage, and accumulations will likely remain below half an inch.

In addition to the rain, there is a low chance (20 percent) for storm development. Modest CAPE values ranging from 700 to 1000 J/kg are forecast across northern portions of the area, with 500 mb temperatures remaining between -12 to -10C across east central Florida. This would support occasional lightning strikes with any storms that are able to develop. Additionally, model soundings show DCAPE values ranging from 800 to 1000 J/kg, which could support some stronger wind gusts to 40 mph, remaining below severe criteria. Storm activity is anticipated to gradually diminish towards the evening and overnight hours across the peninsula, though some lingering storms cannot be ruled out across the local waters overnight.

Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal along the coast and slightly above normal across the interior this afternoon, with highs reaching the low 80s along the coast and the mid 80s to low 90s across the interior. Lows only fall into the mid 60s to low 70s overnight. Partly sunny to partly cloudy skies are anticipated, with persistent onshore flow at 10 to 15 mph forecast outside of convection. Poor beach conditions continue as a result of a long period swell, with a high risk of rip currents expected at all east central Florida beaches today. Entering the surf is not advised.

Tuesday-Friday...The aforementioned area of high pressure at the surface will gradually drift southward through the remainder of the work week, with the ridge axis also shifting towards the Florida peninsula. While some lingering activity Tuesday afternoon cannot be ruled out across the far interior as the sea breeze moves inland, mostly dry conditions are anticipated to prevail across east central Florida each day. Onshore winds Tuesday and Wednesday will be further enhanced during the afternoons by the east coast sea breeze, with wind speeds reaching 10 to 15 mph. As the ridge axis shifts southward, winds veer to out of the southeast on Thursday and out of the south on Friday. Winds along the coast back to out of the east-southeast as the sea breeze moves inland each afternoon. Skies are anticipated to remain mostly clear until Friday, when increasing moisture locally will support greater cloud coverage across the area. Slightly cooler into Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s, but this is short- lived as conditions warm mid to late week back into the mid 80s to low 90s. Lows generally remain in the low to mid 60s, though some upper 50s cannot be ruled out Tuesday and Wednesday nights in the more rural portions of east central Florida.

Saturday-Sunday...The next best chance for rain looks to be this weekend. Guidance indicates that a mid-level trough will sweep southeastward from the Great Lakes towards the Mid-Atlantic, swinging northeastward towards New England. At the surface, this will translate to a cold front sweeping across the southeastern U.S., weakening as it moves towards the Florida peninsula. As it approaches east central Florida, moisture will increase, with rain chances also increasing as a result. Between the weakening front and the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon, shower activity will have some sort of mechanism present helping to kick it off in the afternoons. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out, though confidence at this time remains low. There does remain some deal of discrepancy between guidance at this time, with the GFS being the wetter solution at this time. Stuck with the NBM, which keeps PoPs at 20 to 30 percent each day. While activity is anticipated to gradually diminish into the overnight hours across the peninsula, some lingering showers and storms will be possible across the local Atlantic waters. Outside of rain chances, temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

MARINE
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

An area of high pressure moves southeastward off the coast of the Carolinas today, pushing a weakening cold front southwestward across the local Atlantic waters towards the Florida peninsula.
Rain chances increase to 30 to 50 percent locally, with a 20 percent chance for lightning storms. Activity is forecast to diminish tonight into Tuesday. Persistent onshore flow increases to 15 to 20 knots late this afternoon into the overnight hours across the offshore waters, continuing through Tuesday and Tuesday night. Seas respond by building up to 6 feet across the offshore waters, with 4 to 5 feet elsewhere. Small craft will need to exercise caution across the offshore waters tonight through Tuesday as a result of these deteriorating boating conditions.

High pressure shifts farther south Wednesday through Friday, with a return of generally favorable boating conditions anticipated across the local waters. Onshore winds 10 to 15 knots gradually veer to out of the south-southeast at 10 to 15 knots by the end of the week. Seas subside back to 3 to 5 feet through the remainder of the period. Dry conditions return, with no mentionable rain chances forecast until the weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Confidence in shower or storm activity near inland terminals has decreased for this forecast package, as guidance now pushes all activity closer to the Gulf Coast later this afternoon. Maintained VCSH mention at KLEE/KSFB/KMCO/KISM after 20Z but eliminated from KDAB. Easterly winds with gusts up to 20 knots thru 00Z, increasing again tomorrow. MVFR cigs possible at the tail end of the TAF period, but otherwise VFR.



FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

A weakening front is forecast to move southwestward across the Florida peninsula today, resulting in increasing moisture and rain and storm chances. While the greater moisture will keep minimum RH values above critical thresholds and onshore flow is anticipated to remain between 10 to 15 mph, sensitive fire weather conditions are still anticipated due to the chance for storms. Any lightning strikes could spark new wildfires, with the greatest chance for storms focused from the Orlando metro towards the Cape and areas northward, which do encompass some of our driest areas across east central Florida.

Lingering moisture into Tuesday will quickly dry out mid to late week, with minimum RH values forecast to fall once again to 35 to 45 percent across the interior from Wednesday through Friday.
Onshore flow Tuesday and Wednesday veers to out of the southeast on Thursday and out of the south on Friday, though backing along the coast is anticipated as a result of the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. No rain chances forecast from Wednesday through Friday, allowing for continued drying of fuels and sensitive fire weather conditions. Next best chance for rain is forecast for this weekend, though discrepancies between models on timing and extent of rainfall still need to be worked out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 80 63 81 / 20 20 0 0 MCO 69 84 63 85 / 20 20 0 0 MLB 71 81 67 81 / 20 20 0 0 VRB 70 81 66 81 / 20 20 0 0 LEE 68 85 63 87 / 30 20 0 0 SFB 68 84 62 85 / 20 20 0 0 ORL 69 84 64 85 / 20 20 0 0 FPR 69 81 65 81 / 30 20 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.