Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Conway, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Today-Tonight...Showers moving southwest across the local Atlantic waters are forecast to gradually move onshore early this morning, with rain chances expanding inland through late morning and early afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and helps push activity farther inland. There is a low chance (20 percent) for storm development, though confidence in this remains low. If any storms were to develop, they may be capable of producing occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours. Activity diminishes late afternoon into the overnight hours as an area of high pressure shifts farther south across the western Atlantic, with drier air moving across the area from the northeast.

Easterly flow is forecast to persist across east central Florida today. The sea breeze will enhance winds this afternoon, causing them to reach 10 to 15 mph. Partly cloudy skies will diminish as shower and storm activity diminishes, becoming mostly clear overnight. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to remain near normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s today. Overnight lows generally in the 60s, with some rural portions of east central Florida falling into the upper 50s. At the beaches, slightly elevated seas combined with the persistent onshore flow will lead to hazardous surf conditions. A high rip current risk will be present at all local beaches. Entering the surf is not advised.

Wednesday-Thursday...Mid-level ridging shifts eastward from the Gulf towards the Florida peninsula through the middle of this week, with the surface high slowly drifting southward across the western Atlantic waters. The ridge axis is anticipated to remain just north of east central Florida, with persistent onshore flow forecast locally. The east coast sea breeze will further enhance winds as it moves inland, reaching 10 to 15 mph each afternoon. Drier air will not only keep rain chances virtually near 0 Wednesday and Thursday but also provide mostly clear skies across east central Florida.
Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above normal, with highs along the coast in the low 80s and in the mid to upper 80s across the interior. Overnight lows remain in the 60s, with some rural locations potentially dropping into the upper 50s Wednesday night. At least a moderate risk of rip currents is anticipated at the local beaches.

Friday-Monday...The mid-level ridge begins to erode into Friday as a trough sweeps eastward from the Great Lakes towards New England and the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend. Beyond this, there are some model discrepancies between the mid-level pattern. Based on the Euro, the trough strengthens and a mid level low begins to sink southward towards the Carolinas, with the mid-level pattern across the United States resembling an omega block Sunday into Monday, persisting into the middle of next week. The GFS indicates a bit of a messier mid-level pattern. However, both models are in fairly decent agreement that a weakening cold front will approach the Florida peninsula over the weekend, stalling across south Florida late weekend into Monday. As a result of this, moisture is forecast to increase across east central Florida. The development of the east coast sea breeze and its push inland will take advantage of the greater moisture, with rain chances increasing to 20 percent on Friday afternoon and 30 to 50 percent each afternoon Saturday through Monday. Isolated storms also cannot be ruled out, particularly Saturday through Monday. Activity is anticipated to diminish into the evening and overnight hours each day, with lingering showers and storms possible out across the local Atlantic waters.

Outside of the shower and storm activity, temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above normal each afternoon through Sunday, with highs in the low to upper 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s. Slightly cooler on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. South to southwest winds Friday and Saturday veer to out of the northeast Sunday through Monday. The east coast sea breeze will cause winds to become more easterly each afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Shower and storm activity early this morning along with poor boating conditions diminish into the afternoon hours as the surface high begins to drift southward across the western Atlantic. East winds 15 to 20 knots fall to 10 to 15 knots, with 4 to 6 foot seas subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Favorable boating conditions are anticipated to persist, with mostly dry weather prevailing through Thursday. By Friday, rain chances begin to increase once again across the local Atlantic waters as moisture returns via south-southeast flow and an approaching weakening frontal boundary. The best rain chances across the local waters are focused on this weekend as the front moves closer to the area, with PoPs rising into the 30 to 50 percent range. Seas are anticipated to remain between 2 to 4 feet, with veering winds remaining below 15 knots.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms across the coastal waters will push toward the coast through early this morning and onshore. This activity will have the potential to produce tempo IFR/MVFR conditions, but with the lower coverage expected have limited mention to VCSH at this time at most sites, except TIX where a tempo group for -SHRA producing MVFR conditions will continue through 7Z. Drier air will build in from the east today, diminishing rain chances into late morning and afternoon and have VCSH ending by 15Z. Some MVFR cigs may be possible through early morning, but then any cigs should lift to 3500-5000 feet after 15Z.

Easterly winds will continue, increasing up to 12-16 knots with gusts to 20-22 knots this afternoon and diminishing to 5-10 knots tonight.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Minimum RH values remain above critical thresholds today thanks to lingering moisture behind a weak frontal boundary, with some isolated shower and even storm activity continuing early this morning. This moisture is forecast to diminish starting Wednesday as an area of high pressure drifts southward towards the Florida peninsula, with minimum RH values falling near critical thresholds Wednesday through Friday across the interior. Rain chances remain below 15 percent through Friday, though some isolated showers Friday afternoon along the Treasure Coast cannot be ruled out.
Onshore winds persist through Thursday, becoming southerly on Friday as the surface high sits directly east of the peninsula.
Wind speeds reach up to 15 mph each afternoon out of the east across the area as winds are enhanced by the local sea breeze.
Based on these variables along with continued drying of fuels due to a lack of appreciable rainfall, sensitive fire weather conditions are anticipated across east central Florida over the next several days.

Light winds over the weekend veer as another weakening front begins its approach, with moisture slowly increasing. Winds become easterly each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Rain chances increase into the weekend through early next week, with PoPs of 30 to 50 percent currently forecast across east central Florida. There is also a low chance (20 percent) for storm development, though confidence in this remains low at this time. If storms were to develop, any lightning strikes may be capable of sparking new wildfires.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 64 81 64 / 20 0 0 0 MCO 84 64 85 64 / 20 0 0 0 MLB 81 67 81 68 / 20 0 0 0 VRB 82 66 81 66 / 20 0 0 0 LEE 85 64 86 63 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 84 63 85 63 / 20 0 0 0 ORL 84 65 85 65 / 20 0 0 0 FPR 81 65 81 66 / 20 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.