AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 852 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Scattered convection continues, but not expected to affect the TAF sites the rest of this evening. VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight into Sunday morning then we'll see more scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms develop which could cause some MVFR/local IFR conditions. Light winds overnight will become southeast 5 to 10 knots Sunday morning then shift to southwest to west near the coast during the afternoon.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

A large trough axis extends from the Great Lakes Region down through the Mid-Atlantic and off the East Coast of Florida. Stretched out behind this low, a stationary boundary is situated across North Florida, with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Gulf through the Big Bend region of Florida. Weak high pressure is dominating south of this boundary, with a light WSW flow in place the surface.

The sea breeze is only just beginning to develop, with enough moisture and instability in place to support some convection.
However, there is a decreasing moisture gradient, especially over the Eastern Gulf and adjacent central Florida coast. Water vapor satellite imagery also shows a pocket of drier air to the south, which is being advected to the NE towards the FL peninsula in response to the SW flow. Overall, this setup favors lower rain chances for this afternoon and evening along the coast; but the boundary collisions and moisture pooling across the interior should still yield scattered to numerous storms, mainly across Polk, Hardee, DeSoto and Highlands counties. SWFL is also favored for higher rain chances as the slightly more SE low-level flow should keep additional moisture in play, mainly across the eastern half of Charlotte and Lee Counties.

As the parent low lifts northward, the subtropical ridge will build back in and the flow will return to the more prevalent ESE flow that has persisted for much of the last couple months. However, the stationary boundary, as the name implies, will persist. By the middle of the week, it looks to sink a little further south to around the Bay Area. Should this be realized, the deep moisture axis will be directly overhead, with widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, and elevated concerns for heavy rainfall to lead to flooding.

Regardless of the exact specifics, today and tomorrow are favored to be the driest days, although far from completely dry. At least scattered storms will persist each day, with warm and muggy weather typical of a summertime pattern continuing.

MARINE
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

With a stalled boundary over northern coastal waters, showers and thunderstorms persist. Locally hazardous winds and seas are possible in the vicinity. South of this boundary in central and southern waters, a light SSW wind of 5 to 10 knots persists, with seas of 1 to 3 feet. Tomorrow and into the weekend, this flow turns back to the ESE, with an expected shift in timing for thunderstorms by early next week to be favored in the afternoon and evening as opposed to the morning. As the boundary sinks farther south through the week, more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity becomes likely at anytime.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Conditions are forecast to be driest today and tomorrow, but isolated to scattered storms remain possible along the coast and scattered to numerous storms remain possible inland. With ample moisture, there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 76 90 77 90 / 20 60 30 70 FMY 77 93 77 93 / 20 50 30 70 GIF 76 93 77 93 / 40 70 30 70 SRQ 76 92 76 92 / 10 60 30 70 BKV 73 91 74 90 / 30 70 30 70 SPG 80 91 79 91 / 20 60 40 70

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.