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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 815 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Monday night..North winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 815 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis.. Broad high pressure centered near bermuda ridges west-southwest over florida and into the gulf of mexico. This will keep a southeast wind flow around 10-15 knots and rain-free conditions for today. A front approaches the area and stalls just to the north of the waters with some showers and storms possible mainly across the northern half of the waters for Friday evening and continuing through the weekend. The cold front will move through the area late Sunday into Monday and into south florida. This will bring a shift in the winds to the northwest for the first part of next week. Winds and seas are expected to stay below headline criteria through the period.

FXUS62 KTBW 020049 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 749 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Upper shortwave energy continues to produce a large convective area over the N Gulf that is keeping abundant mid to high clouds over the region. Low level moisture has returned as well with high surface dewpoints. Expect low clouds or fog to form over calm wind land areas tonight otherwise warm and humid conditions continue into the weekend.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Another night of BKN-OVC120-250 with light and variable winds.
Main concern is low cloud formation overnight with MVFR/IFR CIGs or vsbys possible between 09-14Z. Conditions improve becoming VFR Sat aft 14-15Z with S-SW winds.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 208 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Broad upper ridging extends through the Gulf of Mexico, over Florida and farther eastward to Bermuda. The surface high sits near Bermuda and ridges west-southwest over Florida keeping Florida in a south- southeast wind flow and warm air mass through the weekend. Daytime highs over the weekend will top out in the low to mid 80's with lows in the 60's.

Farther to the west, a developing area of low pressure near Missouri extends a frontal boundary southward and is producing disturbed weather over the northwestern gulf coast states. This surface low will slowly lift to the northeast with the associated cold front moving into northern Florida over the weekend and will stall out along the FL/GA line. This front will produce a chance of showers and storms, primarily over the Nature coast and northern gulf waters. The cold front will move through the Florida peninsula late Sunday into Monday with a slight chance of showers and a stray storm possible with frontal passage. High pressure will build in behind this front and will usher in some drier and cooler air starting Monday and continuing for most of next week. Temperatures are not expected to reach freezing and will only drop into the 40's and 50's overnight with Wednesday night next week being the coolest night through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 208 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Broad high pressure centered near Bermuda ridges west-southwest over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This will keep a southeast wind flow around 10-15 knots and rain-free conditions for today. A front approaches the area and stalls just to the north of the waters with some showers and storms possible mainly across the northern half of the waters for Friday evening and continuing through the weekend.
The cold front will move through the area late Sunday into Monday and into south Florida. This will bring a shift in the winds to the northwest for the first part of next week. Winds and seas are expected to stay below headline criteria through the period.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 208 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

High pressure near Bermuda will ridge across the area through the end of the week and into the weekend. Moisture increases today as winds shift to the south-southeast through the weekend. A front stalls to the north of the area and allows for a few showers across the north over the weekend. A cold front will then move through the area late Sunday into Monday, with a few showers and storms possible with it. Cooler and drier air expected for most of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 81 70 80 / 0 0 10 20 FMY 70 85 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 68 84 69 84 / 0 0 10 20 SRQ 67 82 69 81 / 0 0 0 20 BKV 63 83 66 81 / 0 0 10 30 SPG 69 78 70 77 / 0 0 10 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Bayport
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Fri -- 02:26 AM EST     2.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:46 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:01 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     2.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:08 PM EST     1.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayport, Florida, Tide feet

Aripeka
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Fri -- 01:53 AM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:33 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:01 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:10 PM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:55 PM EST     0.98 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida, Tide feet

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