Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:12 PM   Moonset 2:19 AM

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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 328 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Today - South winds around 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 1 foot at 2 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning and early afternoon. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 328 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis - Southerly winds less than 15 knots and 2-3 foot seas persist through Saturday. A chance of showers and a stray storm will be possible over the northeast gulf on Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary lifts over the area. Winds become more southwesterly on Sunday ahead of the next cold front moving through during the day on Sunday bringing increasing rain and storm chances to the eastern gulf waters. Lingering rain chances will stick around through Tuesday primarily over the southeastern gulf waters. Winds and seas remain below headline criteria through the period.

FXUS62 KTBW 171128 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 728 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Pockets of MVFR cigs will continue to affect some terminals through around 14Z or so, with VFR then expected through the rest of the day. Still some uncertainty as far as rain or storm chances for the Tampa Bay region, but currently still think that most activity should stay to the north, though this will have to be monitored over the next several hours. Also some early hints at another morning of some lower cigs and will continue to evaluate that as well.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

A closed upper low and surface low spins north of Bermuda with a cold front extending southward through the western Atlantic, then turning westward over Florida and extending further westward along the northern gulf coast to Louisiana. A MCS on the western periphery of this front is producing some severe weather from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle. This system will traverse eastward over the next 12-24 hours, slightly weakening as it moves near northern Florida on Friday. A chance of showers and a stray storm will be possible over the Nature Coast through the afternoon hours as this system moves over northern Florida and the frontal boundary lifts northward.
There's a Marginal Risk for severe storms over parts of the Nature Coast for today. Some seabreeze showers and storms will also be possible over the interior and east coast.

On Saturday, the front lifts farther northward over the southeast U.S. Abundant moisture on the south side of this front will lead to scattered showers and storms on Saturday with the highest chances over the Nature Coast. By Sunday morning, a weak low develops near the Carolinas with a cold front extending southwestward across Florida. This will bring another round of showers and storms during the day on Sunday. The front will linger across southern Florida through Tuesday with daily showers and storms possible over the southern counties and interior. High pressure builds into the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday with drier air and lower rain chances by mid week and continuing through the end of next week. Near average to slightly above average temperatures are expected through the period. Heat indices will reach 100-104 degrees over the next couple of days.

MARINE
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Southerly winds less than 15 knots and 2-3 foot seas persist through Saturday. A chance of showers and a stray storm will be possible over the northeast gulf on Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary lifts over the area. Winds become more southwesterly on Sunday ahead of the next cold front moving through during the day on Sunday bringing increasing rain and storm chances to the eastern gulf waters. Lingering rain chances will stick around through Tuesday primarily over the southeastern gulf waters. Winds and seas remain below headline criteria through the period.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

No fire weather concerns expected as abundant moisture remains over the area with daily showers and storms possible over the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 79 91 78 / 10 0 30 50 FMY 92 78 95 78 / 10 0 10 30 GIF 94 73 97 74 / 20 10 40 40 SRQ 91 78 93 77 / 10 0 20 40 BKV 92 72 93 72 / 20 0 40 50 SPG 89 81 90 80 / 10 0 30 50

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Bayport
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Fri -- 03:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:54 AM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:57 AM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:40 PM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:02 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayport, Florida, Tide feet

Aripeka
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Fri -- 03:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:41 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:23 AM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:27 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:28 PM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida, Tide feet

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