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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 846 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 846 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis.. Some sea fog/mist is continuing to linger in nearshore coastal waters, with some reduction to visibility. SEa fog is expected to return for nearshore waters including tampa bay and charlotte harbor. This is likely to linger through much of Monday morning, then conditions should improve as a cold front pushes through with cooler and drier air overspreading the waters.

FXUS62 KTBW 040135 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 835 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 835 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Band of convection has weakened and fallen apart as the upper level support has moved away from the region along with loss of daytime heating. Main story for the rest of the night will be the development of low clouds and fog once again in the warm humid airmass across the area. Some sea fog remains over the nearshore waters from around Venice south, generally south of where the band of showers fell apart and have issued a Marine Dense Fog Advisory for the nearshore waters of Lee and Charlotte County including Charlotte Harbor. Expect more sea/land fog to develop overnight with more Dense Fog Advisories needed. Latest indications are that the lowest visibilities will be from around the Tampa Bay area and Interstate 4 corridor southward late tonight into early Monday morning. The low clouds and fog will gradually lift and dissipate during Monday morning with the cold front finally advancing southward across the region during the day. Overall the forecast is on track at this time.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 835 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

One more night of low clouds and fog with areas of IFR/LIFR conditions expected late tonight into Monday morning. Conditions will gradually improve during the mid to late morning hours on Monday with VFR conditions expected to return by early afternoon.
Light winds overnight will become west to northwest by midday as the cold front moves across the area followed by cooler drier air and much quieter weather for rest of the upcoming week.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 204 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

The next 24 hours or so look pretty active. A negatively tilted trough axis is propagating through the Great Lakes region, with the amplification of the upper-level flow pushing the ridge axis south.
An area of considerable cloudiness continues across the FL panhandle and Big Bend region ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, along with a line of storms that is approaching the peninsula from the west. This line continues to have good forward momentum, suggesting that storms will make it to the coast around Tampa Bay in the next hour or two. Even SWFL could see some storms later, but the overall likelihood is lower as the line becomes increasingly outflow dominant.

This line has raced well out ahead of the surface front, with the driving force being the warm, humid, and unstable airmass and it's own cold pools. In response, this should fall apart as it continues to become farther removed from the front, but also once diurnal heating begins to wane a little later today. This means that even more moisture will be present with a light S to SSW flow overnight again tonight. This combo favors fog once again tonight. Even now, sea fog/mist is still being observed along the coast.

Considering these factors, it could be another night where fog sets in early and becomes fairly dense by 4AM to 6AM, being slow to clear until daytime heating and winds start to increase late morning. Once that happens, some additional instability along and just ahead of the frontal boundary (which will finally be approaching our coast by later in the day), there could be few additional sprinkles tomorrow across the area under mostly cloudy skies. Once the front passes, though, that all begins to change.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Behind the front, winds shift to a northerly flow, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass that becomes even cooler and drier as additional trough axes propagate through the flow, keeping the mid- level pattern amplified. This should lead to a pretty mild week after tomorrow. Daytime highs remain in the 60s and 70s until Saturday as morning lows hang out in the 30s, 40s, and 50s. The coldest morning of the week looks to be Thursday. There is now about a 50% chance of freezing temperatures across the Northern Nature Coast for Thursday morning.

By the weekend, conditions will begin to modify as the flow veers to the east. There are some low 80s on the map for Saturday south of I- 4. However, this appears short-lived as additional shortwave energy and then another trough start to knock on our door by the end of the weekend. Cooler air could be back in the forecast once again next week.

MARINE
Issued at 204 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

A line of storms is pushing through coastal waters, producing gusty winds up to around 20 knots. This may create locally hazardous seas in the vicinity. Additionally, some sea fog/mist is continuing to linger in nearshore coastal waters as well, with some reduction to visibility. Once storms wind down this evening, sea fog may return again for nearshore waters including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. This is likely to linger through tomorrow morning and maybe even a little longer, until a cold front pushes through with cooler and drier air settling in to clear any remaining fog. Outside of storms, winds remain around 15 knots or less.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 204 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Fog is expected overnight and is the only fire weather concern through tomorrow with ample moisture and humidity remaining otherwise. Cooler and drier air will return to the area behind the front for mid-week as winds turn northerly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 70 78 60 72 / 20 20 0 0 FMY 71 81 61 77 / 10 20 0 0 GIF 68 81 56 73 / 20 20 0 0 SRQ 70 80 60 74 / 20 20 0 0 BKV 65 77 52 71 / 20 20 0 0 SPG 70 76 62 70 / 20 20 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM.

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Bayport
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Sun -- 03:53 AM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:14 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:14 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:24 PM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayport, Florida, Tide feet

Aripeka
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Sun -- 03:18 AM EST     2.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:01 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:14 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:50 PM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:56 PM EST     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida, Tide feet

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