Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 7:32 AM   Moonset 10:21 PM

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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 1025 Am Edt Fri May 10 2024
This afternoon - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers early, then a chance of showers. Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 5 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 2 seconds. Saturday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 2 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. Sunday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 3 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. Sunday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: northwest 1 foot at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Monday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 1025 Am Edt Fri May 10 2024
Synopsis - Southwest winds today will turn northwest tonight as a frontal boundary moves through the area. Winds then quickly turn east and then southeast Sunday into early next week, increasing near exercise caution levels for Tuesday as another boundary approaches the region. Rain chances remain low for the weekend, but will increase for next week ahead of the next front.

FXUS62 KTBW 101109 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 709 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Some very patchy fog and low clouds around the region will continue periodic restrictions for a few TAF sites over the next hour or two, then VFR is expected through much of the day. Later this afternoon, we could see a few thunderstorms near KTPA and KPIE, but chances are rather low and confidence is not as high.
Another round of showers and storms is possible tonight, generally ending around 12Z or a little later.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 U/L pattern will begin with the west coast rex block in the process of breaking down, and quasi-zonal southern stream flow undercutting a west coast cut-off low which will extend across the southern tier of the U.S. This then merges with the northern stream along the eastern seaboard.

A northern stream disturbance will dig over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley's today, and will move rapidly to the mid-Atlantic coast.
This will enhance an area of showers and thunderstorms over the southeast U.S. along a frontal boundary, which will sink gradually south through the day. Shower/thunderstorm activity will approach the northern forecast area during the mid/late afternoon hours.
The U/L support will be in the process of pulling away from the region as the storms approach the northern forecast area, however a pocket of CAA aloft will advect over the northern/central forecast area during the day increasing convective instability, so can't rule out an isolated strong thunderstorm with potential for damaging wind gusts and hail. SPC has the northern nature coast highlighted in a slight risk for severe storms today...with a marginal risk extending south to about the I-4 corridor. Any showers/thunderstorms should be on a weakening/dissipating trend as they sink south toward the Tampa area and the remainder of the central and southern forecast area during the evening and overnight hours. Guidance is not overly impressive with regards to areal coverage of shower/thunderstorm activity today, with best chance across Levy county.

The frontal boundary will be located across south central Florida on Saturday with a continued chance of thunderstorms over southwest Florida and the southern interior. High pressure will build over the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday with much drier advecting across the region. Dew points in many areas will drop into the mid to upper 50s on Sunday. The drier air will be short lived as the next storm system develops over the mid Mississippi Valley and boundary layer winds across the Florida peninsula veer southeast allowing L/L moisture to rapidly recover. The next frontal boundary will push approach the northern nature coast early Tuesday with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms...with the boundary sinking south across the central forecast area during the day, and the area of showers/thunderstorms sinking south along with it. As is typically the case with systems in mid May, the U/L support will be pulling away from the region as the boundary sinks south...and areal coverage/strength of storms will be on a waning trend during the evening and overnight hours Tuesday night.

The boundary is expected to stall across the north central/central Florida peninsula on Wednesday as it becomes parallel to the U/L flow. Another weak U/L disturbance riding through the southern stream flow will ride over the boundary on Wednesday which should aid in generating scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms.

MARINE
Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Slight increase in the gradient today may create LCL SCEC conditions this afternoon and tonight. A frontal boundary will create a chance of showers/thunderstorms over the northern and possibly central waters this afternoon and evening. High pressure will build over the waters on Saturday with winds subsiding and veering northwest. Winds are expected to remain less than 15 knots with seas 2 feet or less Sunday and Monday. A frontal boundary will approach the northern waters on Tuesday with SCEC conditions possible.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Hot temperatures over the interior will continue to create minimum afternoon relative humidity values in the 30 to 35 percent range today and Saturday. Much drier air advecting across the region on Sunday will allow minimum relative humidity values to drop below 35 percent across much of the forecast area away from the coast...with the lowest RH values over the interior in the range of 25 to 30 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 77 89 71 / 10 30 10 0 FMY 91 77 90 71 / 0 10 30 0 GIF 94 75 93 67 / 10 20 10 0 SRQ 88 76 89 69 / 10 30 10 0 BKV 91 70 90 61 / 20 30 10 0 SPG 87 79 87 74 / 10 30 10 0

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Bayport
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Fri -- 04:28 AM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:46 AM EDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:56 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:15 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayport, Florida, Tide feet

Aripeka
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Fri -- 03:54 AM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:33 AM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:22 PM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:02 PM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida, Tide feet

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