Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montverde, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 345 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Thru tonight...A weak frontal boundary has settled across the FL peninsula, likely oriented NW-SE. Isolated showers will continue to develop near this boundary and move toward the SE. A brief downpour will occur in some lucky spots but most areas will not see measurable rain.

Fri-Sat...The front becomes diffuse and dissipates by Sat.
Moisture (PWATs 0.90-1.10") continues to be meager at best. Models have cut back on mentionable precip potential (~10%) for Fri, though cannot rule out an ISOLD sprinkle/brief shower along the Treasure Coast. A slim light precip threat continues on Sat (aftn)
along the Space/Treasure coasts with a small onshore-moving potential. Light morning northerly winds on Fri gradually transitioning onshore (NE) 7-12 mph into the afternoon. A more direct onshore (E/SE) wind component Sat as high pressure pushes east and offshore the Carolina coast. Temperatures remaining near to slightly above normal.

Sun-Wed (modified)...In the mid-levels, a vigorous trough east of the Ark/La/Tex region early in the period will continue to track eastward thru early Mon morning. The ECMWF has this trough along the southeast U.S. coast by 12Z Mon; whereas the GFS has it across the FL Panhandle/north FL - lagging behind. This is still creating issues with timing of the next surface cold front into/through ECFL. The ECMWF brings the front thru ECFL late Sun overnight into early Mon morning and the GFS still during the day on Mon. WPC appears to be favoring the quicker ECMWF solution. We continue with rain chances Sun of 30-50% but this may be a little high. Rain chances peak Sun night at 70-90% and linger early Mon (40-50%). Have maintained a 20-30% chance for lightning Sun night-Mon.

Despite increased clouds/precip on Sun ahead of the next approaching cold front, max temperatures are forecast to reach the low 80s, except upper 70s along the coast. Highs generally in the 70s areawide on Mon/Tue; perhaps some 80 degree readings towards Lake Okee. A quick return to U70s along the coast and L80s interior by Wed. Lows in the U50s to L60s Mon morning, and 50s for Tue/Wed/Thu mornings. The bottom line is there is no significant cold air in our forecast.

South winds increase Sunday 15-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph as pressure gradient tightens around sfc low tracking east across the deep South. Winds decrease and turn northwest/north behind the front on Mon/Tue and possibly light onshore again by Wed.

MARINE
Issued at 345 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

A weak frontal boundary will remain draped across the local waters tonight/Fri and then dissipate. High pressure will push offshore the SE U.S. coast Sat and produce a more direct onshore flow. Low pressure will track east across the deep South on Sun and increase the southerly flow. A cold front will sweep across the local waters Sunday night/early Mon and bring high rain chances with embedded storms. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Sun as the southerly pressure gradient supports 20 knots nearshore and 25 knots well offshore with occasional gusts to Gale force.

Seas 2-3 nearshore and up to 4 ft offshore through Sat, then build 5-6 ft (perhaps 7 ft well offshore) in response to the increasing winds on Sun into Sun night. Seas will slowly subside in response to the decreasing winds behind the front on Mon.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 649 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period at coastal terminals, and some MVFR-IFR impacts possible tonight at inland locations.
ISO SHRA continues across East Central Florida through around 03Z, then mostly dry conditions. Low clouds and fog pushing in from the Gulf tonight look to remain west and south of the ECFL terminals. There is a low (20% or less) chance for MVFR and very low (10% or less) chance for IFR VIS/CIGs to develop near the frontal boundary stalled across Central Florida between 07Z-13Z, namely the inland terminals including KMCO. Based on HRRR/LAV keeping most TAFs VFR, except KLEE with TEMPO MVFR where there is a slightly better chance for the fog/stratus from the west to reach. If the HRRR/RAP solutions (which have typically been too aggressive) come to fruition, short-fused TEMPOs may be needed at inland terminals. Any impacts that manage to develop should clear by 14Z at the latest, and likely sooner. Light winds tonight wander from NW-NE and VRB at times, becoming N-NE 5-10 kts Friday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 344 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

A frontal boundary will remain stationary across central Florida through Friday then dissipate. High pressure will push offshore the SE U.S. coast Sat which will produce an onshore (E/SE) flow. Low pressure will track east across the deep South Sunday and this will increase our southerly flow, becoming breezy/gusty Sunday afternoon with gusts near 30 mph. This will produce very sensitive fire weather conditions even though RH values are forecast to remain above the critical 35 percent threshold.

Smoke dispersion will be Generally Good Friday, and Very Good to Excellent on Saturday and Sunday.

Rain chances will increase late Sunday through Sunday night (60-90%)
as a cold front approaches then pushes south of the area early Monday. There is a 20-30% chance for lightning storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 52 71 54 73 / 10 10 0 10 MCO 55 75 55 78 / 10 10 0 10 MLB 53 73 58 74 / 20 10 0 10 VRB 53 75 58 76 / 20 10 10 10 LEE 52 75 53 77 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 53 75 54 76 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 55 75 56 77 / 10 10 0 10 FPR 53 75 57 76 / 20 10 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.