Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fern Park, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Today... Weak low pressure sinks southwestward along the Georgia/Florida Atlantic coastline. Deep moisture holds in place across the interior and southern counties (PWAT 2.0-2.1") while models show a tongue of drier air advecting along the Volusia and northern Brevard coasts this afternoon and evening (PWAT ~ 1.8-1.9).
Therefore, the highest rain chances will be favored across the interior and the Treasure Coast counties today (70-80%). Periods of continued rainfall may lead to a localized flood threat, particularly across low lying and poor drainage areas. HRRR guidance generally signals storm total accumulations of 1-1.5" with locally higher totals up to 3.5-4" (5-10% chance) across areas which see multiple rounds of showers and storms. While temperatures aloft hold around -7 to -8 C, pulses of vorticity could allow for a few strong storms. Stronger storms which develop will be capable of frequent lightning strikes and localized convective gusts of 50-55 mph. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!

High temperatures today will vary based on rainfall trends. Guidance generally favors an earlier start to showers and storms across the south, limiting highs to the upper 80s to low 90s. The potential for later convective initiation across the north could allow highs to more widely range the low to mid 90s. High humidity will produce heat index values between 100-107, potentially nearing Heat Advisory thresholds north and west of I-4 ahead of showers and storms.

Tuesday-Wednesday... A wet pattern continues. Weak mid level troughing slides across the Florida peninsula Tuesday and into the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure follows across the state in vicinity of mid level support. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor this feature as it moves into the Gulf and there is now a low 30% chance for tropical development by the middle to latter part of the weak. Regardless of tropical development, deep moisture will continue to fuel high rain chances locally (80%). While global ensembles suggest widespread daily rainfall totals of an inch or less, localized totals of 2-4" remain possible, especially where stronger storms occur. A conditional storm environment will exist with the presence of a saturated air column and tall, skinny CAPE profiles. However, localized waves of vorticity continue to pass aloft, especially on Tuesday. This could continue an isolated strong storm threat capable of frequent lightning strikes and localized winds gusts of 45-50 mph.

High temperatures will be near to below normal each day (M80s-L90s)
with increased cloud cover and rain chances. Low temperatures remain in the low to mid 70s.

Thursday-Sunday... The Atlantic ridge axis takes control of the local weather pattern through the extended forecast period. A wave of deeper moisture advects from the southeast on Thursday keeping one more day of higher rain chances (~70%). By Friday and into the weekend, a more seasonal pattern of afternoon showers and storms is forecast with rain chances returning closer to normal. High temperatures climb near to above normal each afternoon, reaching the low to mid 90s. Lows in the low to mid 70s gradually increase a few degrees as winds turn slightly more onshore.

MARINE
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A broad area of low pressure moves across the local waters today and into early Tuesday, making winds widely light and variable. The western Atlantic high begins to build late Tuesday, establishing southerly flow around 10-15 kts into mid week. Seas gradually build 2-3 ft. High shower and storm chances continue through Thursday before a more typical summertime pattern returns.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Continued VFR outside of convection. Nuisance shower and embedded lightning storm activity continues to press southward early this morning across ECFL and the adjacent coastal waters. ISOLD gusty winds of 20-30 kts possible in strongest activity. TEMPO groups as necessary. Light/variable winds remainder of tonight outside of convection. Unsettled pattern continues into Mon with ample moisture and weak disturbance off of north FL coast. Much uncertainty and low confidence with CAM models from run to run.
Continue VCTS along the coast aft 16Z and interior aft 18Z. Light offshore flow becomes northerly during the day and perhaps onshore near the coast. Future TEMPO groups to follow as confidence increases.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 75 87 74 / 50 30 80 20 MCO 93 74 90 74 / 70 40 80 30 MLB 89 74 87 76 / 70 50 90 40 VRB 89 71 87 73 / 80 50 90 40 LEE 92 74 89 75 / 80 40 80 30 SFB 93 76 90 75 / 60 30 80 20 ORL 92 76 90 75 / 70 40 80 30 FPR 88 71 87 73 / 80 60 90 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.