Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fern Park, FL
December 10, 2023 2:52 AM EST (07:52 UTC)
Sunrise 7:06AM Sunset 5:30PM Moonrise 4:44AM Moonset 3:36PM
AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 954 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 5 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 5 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 6 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 954 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..Southeast to southerly winds will increase Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, as will chances for showers and lightning storms, especially by Sunday evening. Winds and seas will remain elevated early next week as a stout area of high pressure moves in behind the front.
Gulf stream hazards..Southeast winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots late tonight.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, december 9th.
48 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
Synopsis..Southeast to southerly winds will increase Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, as will chances for showers and lightning storms, especially by Sunday evening. Winds and seas will remain elevated early next week as a stout area of high pressure moves in behind the front.
Gulf stream hazards..Southeast winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots late tonight.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, december 9th.
48 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KMLB 100138 AFDMLB
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 838 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
DISCUSSION
...Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible Sunday From Late Afternoon Into the Evening...
Turning Much Cooler Behind a Cold Front into Early Next Week
Currently...Satellite derived precipitable water has risen to around 1.45 to 1.6 inches, with the recent TBW sounding yielding 1.44 inches. A favorable south fetch will act to increase moisture further into Sunday along with some light showers along and offshore the Space and Treasure Coasts. Overnight forecast elements featuring a small chc of showers or sprinkles remains in good shape and lows will be seasonally mild with the expectation of increasing mid to higher clouds by early Sunday.
from prev disc...
Tonight...Southeasterly flow continues across the area tonight, with wind speeds decreasing after sunset. Isolated shower activity will gradually diminish by early evening, with any lingering rain potential along the Treasure Coast where isolated onshore moving showers wil still be possible. However, PoPs no more than 20 percent. Skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures falling into the 60s tonight.
Sunday-Sunday night...Strong mid/upper level trough will push eastward across the eastern U.S into tomorrow, pushing a cold front toward and eventually across central Florida into Sunday night.
Breezy southerly winds will develop across the area ahead of this boundary as temperatures warm into the low 80s, with cloud cover gradually increasing through the afternoon. A band of showers and storms ahead of the front will approach Lake County into late afternoon/toward sunset and push rapidly eastward across the area through late evening and offshore overnight, with this activity gradually weakening.
Increasing SW wind fields as this activity moves into the area, with 700mb flow increasing to around 40-45 knots, may generate strong to isolated severe storms, mainly north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast from late afternoon through the late evening hours.
However, main limiting factor for this potential will be instability, with model guidance showing meager CAPE values around 500 J/kg or less. Still, should some stronger storms take advantage of this limited instability, the primary threat will be strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph, with localized damaging winds up to 60 mph possible. Colder temps aloft around -10 to -11C at 500mb may also lead to some small hail with any stronger convection. Also, while threat is very low, a brief tornado can't be completely ruled out, mainly as the line initially moves into areas northwest of I-4.
Showers and storms will diminish and push offshore overnight as front sweeps through the area. Winds will become NW behind the front ushering in a drier and much cooler airmass, with lows by daybreak Monday in the mid to upper 40 north or Orlando and in the 50s across much of the rest of east central Florida.
Monday-Tuesday...Surface high pressure shifts eastward across the southeast/ mid Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. North winds around 10 mph Monday will increase and veer Tuesday becoming northeast around 15 mph. A much drier airmass builds across east central Florida Monday with modeled PWATs falling below 0.5", and no precip is forecast through the mid term. Temperatures become noticeably cooler Monday and Tuesday. Lows are forecast to range the mid to upper 40s from Sanford/ Clermont northward with low to mid 50s southward.
Slightly warmer along the Treasure Coast with lows in the upper 50s.
High temperatures fall below seasonal values Monday, widely ranging the 60s. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s Tuesday.
Wednesday-Friday (slightly modified previous)...Mid/upper level ridge builds over the Deep South and eastern CONUS through late week. Deterministic models (ECMWF/GFS/CMC) suggest three different solutions for mid-to-late week. However, they do agree though that a frontal boundary will remain stalled across southern Florida with moisture increasing from the south Wednesday (PWATs ~1.1-1.5")
through Friday (PWATs ~1.4-2"). With onshore flow in place, isolated to scattered showers are forecast each day with PoPs widely ranging 20-50% Thursday and Friday. The GFS is the most robust which shows low pressure developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico approaching Florida and lifting the aforementioned front north across central Florida Thursday into Friday. The ECMWF and CMC keep the trough/low less organized (if at all) which would result in much lower rain chances. Mid-to-late week looks quite breezy with gusts to 25-30mph from the east-northeast forecast. Seas will become very hazardous through late week. Highs in the low to mid 70s with lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
MARINE
Tonight-Sunday...Southeast winds around around 10 knots nearshore and up to 15 knots offshore are expected to increase to 15-20 knots overnight. Small craft should exercise caution if venturing offshore.
Seas will range from 3-5 feet into tonight.
Boating conditions continue to deteriorate through Sunday into Sunday night, with winds becoming southerly and increasing to 20 to 25 knots out of the southwest offshore of Volusia and Brevard County Sunday evening as a cold front approaches the waters. Ahead of this front, a band of showers and storms will push quickly across the area and offshore into Sunday night. Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible with this activity, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. Winds then increase to 20-25 knots out of the NW behind the front later into Sunday night, with seas building to 6 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will need to be issued for portions if not much of the coastal waters for these hazardous boating conditions into Sunday night.
Monday-Wednesday...Hazardous boating conditions into early next week. North winds on Monday veer to become east-northeast Tuesday as high pressure shifts eastward across the southeast and mid Atlantic states. Windy conditions through the period with sustained winds increasing to 20-25 kts each afternoon, gusting near 35 kts at times. Seas of 5-6 ft Monday and Tuesday build to 7-8 ft over the Gulf Stream. By Wednesday, seas become widely 6-8 ft, increasing to 9 ft over the Gulf Stream. Dry Monday and Tuesday with coverage of scattered showers returning over the Brevard and Treasure Coast waters Wednesday.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 838 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
VFR conditions prevailing with isolated showers near to offshore SUA- FPR-VRB. A cold front will approach the area late Sunday, preceded by a band of showers and embedded storms possible approaching Lake County aft 10/21z and the remainder of the area toward sunset Sunday. Southeast winds 10 kt or less overnight increase out of the south around 10-15 knots mid-morning Sunday, with gust to around 20 knots into Sunday afternoon. Tempo reductions in sky and vis wl be possible depending on cvrg of pcpn mainly FM around 21z-24z Sunday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 80 47 60 / 10 40 60 0 MCO 64 80 50 62 / 10 30 50 0 MLB 66 81 54 67 / 10 20 40 0 VRB 67 83 57 69 / 20 20 50 0 LEE 63 80 46 62 / 10 60 60 0 SFB 64 81 49 62 / 10 40 50 0 ORL 64 81 50 64 / 10 40 50 0 FPR 67 83 57 69 / 20 20 50 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 838 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
DISCUSSION
...Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible Sunday From Late Afternoon Into the Evening...
Turning Much Cooler Behind a Cold Front into Early Next Week
Currently...Satellite derived precipitable water has risen to around 1.45 to 1.6 inches, with the recent TBW sounding yielding 1.44 inches. A favorable south fetch will act to increase moisture further into Sunday along with some light showers along and offshore the Space and Treasure Coasts. Overnight forecast elements featuring a small chc of showers or sprinkles remains in good shape and lows will be seasonally mild with the expectation of increasing mid to higher clouds by early Sunday.
from prev disc...
Tonight...Southeasterly flow continues across the area tonight, with wind speeds decreasing after sunset. Isolated shower activity will gradually diminish by early evening, with any lingering rain potential along the Treasure Coast where isolated onshore moving showers wil still be possible. However, PoPs no more than 20 percent. Skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures falling into the 60s tonight.
Sunday-Sunday night...Strong mid/upper level trough will push eastward across the eastern U.S into tomorrow, pushing a cold front toward and eventually across central Florida into Sunday night.
Breezy southerly winds will develop across the area ahead of this boundary as temperatures warm into the low 80s, with cloud cover gradually increasing through the afternoon. A band of showers and storms ahead of the front will approach Lake County into late afternoon/toward sunset and push rapidly eastward across the area through late evening and offshore overnight, with this activity gradually weakening.
Increasing SW wind fields as this activity moves into the area, with 700mb flow increasing to around 40-45 knots, may generate strong to isolated severe storms, mainly north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast from late afternoon through the late evening hours.
However, main limiting factor for this potential will be instability, with model guidance showing meager CAPE values around 500 J/kg or less. Still, should some stronger storms take advantage of this limited instability, the primary threat will be strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph, with localized damaging winds up to 60 mph possible. Colder temps aloft around -10 to -11C at 500mb may also lead to some small hail with any stronger convection. Also, while threat is very low, a brief tornado can't be completely ruled out, mainly as the line initially moves into areas northwest of I-4.
Showers and storms will diminish and push offshore overnight as front sweeps through the area. Winds will become NW behind the front ushering in a drier and much cooler airmass, with lows by daybreak Monday in the mid to upper 40 north or Orlando and in the 50s across much of the rest of east central Florida.
Monday-Tuesday...Surface high pressure shifts eastward across the southeast/ mid Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. North winds around 10 mph Monday will increase and veer Tuesday becoming northeast around 15 mph. A much drier airmass builds across east central Florida Monday with modeled PWATs falling below 0.5", and no precip is forecast through the mid term. Temperatures become noticeably cooler Monday and Tuesday. Lows are forecast to range the mid to upper 40s from Sanford/ Clermont northward with low to mid 50s southward.
Slightly warmer along the Treasure Coast with lows in the upper 50s.
High temperatures fall below seasonal values Monday, widely ranging the 60s. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s Tuesday.
Wednesday-Friday (slightly modified previous)...Mid/upper level ridge builds over the Deep South and eastern CONUS through late week. Deterministic models (ECMWF/GFS/CMC) suggest three different solutions for mid-to-late week. However, they do agree though that a frontal boundary will remain stalled across southern Florida with moisture increasing from the south Wednesday (PWATs ~1.1-1.5")
through Friday (PWATs ~1.4-2"). With onshore flow in place, isolated to scattered showers are forecast each day with PoPs widely ranging 20-50% Thursday and Friday. The GFS is the most robust which shows low pressure developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico approaching Florida and lifting the aforementioned front north across central Florida Thursday into Friday. The ECMWF and CMC keep the trough/low less organized (if at all) which would result in much lower rain chances. Mid-to-late week looks quite breezy with gusts to 25-30mph from the east-northeast forecast. Seas will become very hazardous through late week. Highs in the low to mid 70s with lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
MARINE
Tonight-Sunday...Southeast winds around around 10 knots nearshore and up to 15 knots offshore are expected to increase to 15-20 knots overnight. Small craft should exercise caution if venturing offshore.
Seas will range from 3-5 feet into tonight.
Boating conditions continue to deteriorate through Sunday into Sunday night, with winds becoming southerly and increasing to 20 to 25 knots out of the southwest offshore of Volusia and Brevard County Sunday evening as a cold front approaches the waters. Ahead of this front, a band of showers and storms will push quickly across the area and offshore into Sunday night. Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible with this activity, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. Winds then increase to 20-25 knots out of the NW behind the front later into Sunday night, with seas building to 6 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will need to be issued for portions if not much of the coastal waters for these hazardous boating conditions into Sunday night.
Monday-Wednesday...Hazardous boating conditions into early next week. North winds on Monday veer to become east-northeast Tuesday as high pressure shifts eastward across the southeast and mid Atlantic states. Windy conditions through the period with sustained winds increasing to 20-25 kts each afternoon, gusting near 35 kts at times. Seas of 5-6 ft Monday and Tuesday build to 7-8 ft over the Gulf Stream. By Wednesday, seas become widely 6-8 ft, increasing to 9 ft over the Gulf Stream. Dry Monday and Tuesday with coverage of scattered showers returning over the Brevard and Treasure Coast waters Wednesday.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 838 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
VFR conditions prevailing with isolated showers near to offshore SUA- FPR-VRB. A cold front will approach the area late Sunday, preceded by a band of showers and embedded storms possible approaching Lake County aft 10/21z and the remainder of the area toward sunset Sunday. Southeast winds 10 kt or less overnight increase out of the south around 10-15 knots mid-morning Sunday, with gust to around 20 knots into Sunday afternoon. Tempo reductions in sky and vis wl be possible depending on cvrg of pcpn mainly FM around 21z-24z Sunday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 80 47 60 / 10 40 60 0 MCO 64 80 50 62 / 10 30 50 0 MLB 66 81 54 67 / 10 20 40 0 VRB 67 83 57 69 / 20 20 50 0 LEE 63 80 46 62 / 10 60 60 0 SFB 64 81 49 62 / 10 40 50 0 ORL 64 81 50 64 / 10 40 50 0 FPR 67 83 57 69 / 20 20 50 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL | 43 mi | 53 min | SSE 4.1G | 69°F | 74°F | 30.07 | ||
| 41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) | 46 mi | 57 min | 69°F | 3 ft | ||||
| 41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL | 62 mi | 43 min | SSE 14G | 77°F | 79°F | 30.10 | 68°F | |
| GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL | 71 mi | 68 min | S 2.9 | 69°F | 30.12 | 65°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KORL EXECUTIVE,FL | 6 sm | 59 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 30.09 | |
| KSFB ORLANDO SANFORD INTL,FL | 12 sm | 59 min | S 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 30.09 | |
| KMCO ORLANDO INTL,FL | 14 sm | 59 min | SSE 05 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 64°F | 63°F | 94% | 30.10 | |
| KISM KISSIMMEE GATEWAY,FL | 24 sm | 56 min | SE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 30.10 |
Wind History from ORL
(wind in knots)Titusville
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:57 AM EST 4.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:42 AM EST Moonrise
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST Sunrise
Sat -- 09:54 AM EST 3.97 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:57 PM EST Moonset
Sat -- 04:20 PM EST 3.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:26 PM EST Sunset
Sat -- 07:56 PM EST 3.98 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:57 AM EST 4.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:42 AM EST Moonrise
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST Sunrise
Sat -- 09:54 AM EST 3.97 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:57 PM EST Moonset
Sat -- 04:20 PM EST 3.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:26 PM EST Sunset
Sat -- 07:56 PM EST 3.98 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Titusville, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4 |
| 1 am |
| 4 |
| 2 am |
| 4 |
| 3 am |
| 4 |
| 4 am |
| 4 |
| 5 am |
| 4 |
| 6 am |
| 4 |
| 7 am |
| 4 |
| 8 am |
| 4 |
| 9 am |
| 4 |
| 10 am |
| 4 |
| 11 am |
| 4 |
| 12 pm |
| 4 |
| 1 pm |
| 4 |
| 2 pm |
| 4 |
| 3 pm |
| 4 |
| 4 pm |
| 4 |
| 5 pm |
| 4 |
| 6 pm |
| 4 |
| 7 pm |
| 4 |
| 8 pm |
| 4 |
| 9 pm |
| 4 |
| 10 pm |
| 4 |
| 11 pm |
| 4 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub), Tide feet
Melbourne, FL,
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