Sunrise 6:47 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 8:52 PM   Moonset 6:36 AM

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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 1016 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
This afternoon - Southwest winds 5 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 11 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 11 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A dominant period 10 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Saturday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Saturday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. Sunday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. Sunday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 1016 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis - Favorable boating conditions through late work-week as a high pressure ridge axis becomes established over the local atlantic waters. Later this weekend, increasing onshore flow will build seas, and isolated showers return to the forecast.
Gulf stream hazards - None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, april 23rd.
44 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 31 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 251320 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 920 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 920 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A surface ridge axis remains draped across the Florida peninsula, promoting calm and dry conditions this morning. A surface boundary across the southeast U.S. is forecast to gradually sink toward north Florida today, with a subtle increase in moisture locally. Current GOES-16 PWAT imagery indicates PWAT values ranging 0.7-0.8" across central Florida with values near 1" across northeast Florida. Light and variable winds persist into late morning until a sea breeze develops along the east coast. East winds then increase to around 10 mph as the sea breeze moves inland. No precip is forecast. High temperatures remain in the low 80s along and east of I-95, warming into the mid to upper 80s westward. The current forecast remains on track.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 920 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR prevails through the period. Light and variable winds become east as the sea breeze develops and moves inland, increasing winds to around 10-12 kts. The sea breeze is forecast at coastal terminals around 16Z, approaching inland terminals after 19Z. Winds diminish after sunset becoming light and variable again overnight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Today-Tonight...A broad area of high pressure across the western Atlantic will remain in place, with the associated ridge axis settling across central Florida. Dry conditions are forecast to persist, with mostly sunny skies remaining in place. With the ridge axis draped across the peninsula, winds are forecast to remain light and variable this morning, becoming easterly this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland as a result of the temperature gradient between the peninsula and the local Atlantic waters. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer than the last couple of days, roughly in the low 80s along the immediate coast and reaching the mid to upper 80s across the interior. Winds will begin to diminish late, becoming generally southeasterly and even variable at times overnight. Dry conditions will continue into the overnight hours. Lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Fri-Sun...Mid-upper level ridging will hold tight across the southeast U.S. and FL peninsula thru the weekend. Mid-level impulses will occasionally slide down the peninsula during this time, though we retain mostly dry conditions with a stable onshore surface flow and less than modest moisture. However, will not rule out a few showers across the local coastal waters. Surface high pressure will dominate across much of the eastern CONUS. This will allow for a persistent onshore flow and the pgrad will be tight enough for breezy conditions each afternoon, especially along the coast.
Afternoon highs in the U70s to L80s near the coast and L-M80s into the interior, possibly some U80s Fri afternoon toward the Kissimmee River. Overnight lows mild and well into the 60s each early morning.

Mon-Thu...The upper ridging begins to break down and shift off of the Atlc Seaboard into the western Atlc. Initial surface high pressure off of the Carolinas will also weaken thru mid-week, while gradually shifting southward. The onshore surface flow stays mostly intact, though the pgrad will slowly weaken during this time.
Continue to keep conditions over land dry. A warming trend will begin, with L80s at the immediate coast, perhaps some M80s here by Thu, and M-U80s into the interior - perhaps some readings near 90F well into the interior by Wed/Thu. Overnight lows remain consistent and in the 60s areawide.

MARINE
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions will persist across the local Atlantic waters. An area of high pressure will continue to keep conditions dry, with light and variable winds this morning becoming east-southeast across the waters at 5 to 10 knots.
Seas will remain between 2 to 4 feet today into tonight.

Fri-Mon...Less than favorable boating conditions going forward. ERLY winds on Fri gradually increase to 10-16 kts during the day, 15-20 kts Fri night with Cautionary Statements necessary, and the pressure gradient continues to tighten Sat-Sat night 16-22 kts (marginal Small Craft Advisory criteria), then slowly backing off Sun 14-19 kts and Mon, again, 10-16 kts. Initial seas 2 ft near shore and 3 ft Gulf Stream will gradually build in response to the increasing winds, 4-6 ft by daybreak Sat morning, 5-6 ft during the day on Sat, 5-7 ft Sat overnight - gradually/slowly subsiding Sun afternoon-Mon. While conditions will remain mostly dry, cannot rule out some ISOLD shower activity thru this period.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Today...Sensitive fire weather conditions will still exist across east central Florida as minimum RH values drop into the 30 to 45 percent range. Winds will be light and variable this morning, becoming easterly around 10 mph as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland.

Fri...Min RHs recover a bit into the U30s to M40s inland and 50- 55pct near the coast. Easterly winds increase to 10-15 mph, with perhaps a bit gusty along the coast.

Sat-Mon...Onshore winds increase a bit more into the extended 15 mph/15-20 mph. Min RHs stay above critical levels on Sat, but as temperatures climb Sun-Mon, we will see values fall back to 35-40pct over the interior on Sun/Mon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 83 62 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 86 62 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 81 66 81 68 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 82 63 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 86 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 86 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 86 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 82 62 81 66 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Titusville
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Thu -- 12:30 AM EDT     3.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:36 PM EDT     3.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
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